Estimated read time: 3-4 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's gas prices remain fairly well below the national average as 2023 comes to an end.
The average price for a regular gallon of gas will set you back about $2.87, which is about a quarter cheaper than the national average, according to AAA data accessed on Saturday. Average prices are even as low as $2.75 in Salt Lake County.
Utah's average gas price is down 27 cents per gallon from a month ago, $1.10 per gallon to what it looked like during the July 4 weekend and $2.39 per gallon below the record-high set amid high inflation during the summer of 2022.
There are several reasons why gas prices soared again this year and also why they have fallen in recent months, says Julian Paredes, a spokesman for AAA Utah. He explains that refineries weren't able to produce as much this summer because of record heat that made it difficult to operate on a normal basis; global conflicts also messed with the global supply, which contributed to prices rising higher than usual.
But he adds that refineries are typically at "full production" at this time of the year, while the demand for gasoline drops. At the same time, fuel producers have switched to their "winter blend" of gasoline, which is generally cheaper to produce because it contains more butane than in the summertime. This is what's behind the more recent slide in prices.
So will this run of cheaper gas prices continue in 2024?
It might, but probably not for long. Paredes told KSL NewsRadio on Friday that prices typically rise again by the end of winter even under normal circumstances, which is why he expects that gas prices will likely begin to increase sometime around mid-to-late February with other sudden jumps afterward.
This is because demand for gas begins to pick up again as spring rolls around, increasing more in the summertime. Refineries also briefly stop production around late winter and early spring so they can prepare for making their summer blend, which cuts into the supply.
"You can kind of start to see bigger jumps in gas prices in springtime, around spring break, in March," Paredes said. "That's when refineries go down for maintenance. They have to do some maintenance to get ready for all the demand that comes with summer, so a big part of the supply of gas in the country is going to be down during that period."
On top of it all, the summer blend can cost refineries as much as 15 cents per gallon more to produce than the winter blend, according to the National Association of Convenience Stores. All of these are why gas prices tend to peak around the middle of the year.
However, the peak cost is impossible to project. Paredes points to the many geopolitical, economic and weather variables that can alter the final price that drivers see at the pump.
"We saw record-high gas prices (in 2022) partly because of the war in Ukraine and you really can't predict how that's going to go," he said.
Since there's no real way to forecast if and when these impacts will occur, experts can't really say if this upcoming summer will produce prices that are higher and lower than in recent years.
The only thing Paredes says he can predict is that gas prices won't stay as low as they are now forever. Barring anything chaotic in the market, he says Utah drivers should enjoy a price reprieve for the next month or two before they are expected to rise again.
Contributing: Adam Small
