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SALT LAKE CITY — About 30% of new COVID-19 cases in Utah are likely due to the omicron variant, a researcher said Tuesday.
"So we should brace ourselves. There are going to be a lot of breakthrough infections," warned Stephen Goldstein, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Utah School of Medicine, during a news conference.
Also on Tuesday, Utah health officials reported 811 new COVID-19 cases and 21 additional deaths, nine of which occurred prior to Dec. 1. The rolling, seven-day average for new cases is 964 per day, and the average positive rate of those tested is 11.9%.
What will omicron look like in Utah?
Goldstein said many of the future COVID-19 cases will be less severe because more people are now vaccinated in Utah. According to the Utah Department of Health, 62.5% of residents ages 5 and older are fully vaccinated with at least two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or one dose of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine.
The new estimate of omicron cases comes from data from Intermountain Healthcare, which identifies the variant in its COVID-19 tests without the need for sequencing by the Utah Department of Health, Goldstein said.
Nationally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates the omicron variant accounts for 73% of new cases. Utah could reach that level by the end of this week because the variant multiples between one-and-a-half to two times each day, Goldstein noted.
The best estimates for vaccine efficacy come from South Africa and the United Kingdom, where the protection against symptomatic infection has dropped to about 35% with the omicron variant compared to 65-70% for previous variants, according to the U. researcher. But protection against severe disease remains more robust at around 75%, preliminary estimates show.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been found to be more effective in preventing COVID-19. Goldstein urged those who had the initial Johnson and Johnson dose to receive a booster of either the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine.
The expected surge in cases due to the variant in Utah and the U.S., as well as the holidays, makes booster shots more important now, Goldstein said. Preliminary evidence shows that getting a booster shot raises vaccine efficacy against the omicron variant, he added. The more recently you received a vaccine, the stronger your protection is against the virus, according to Goldstein.
The hospitalization rate with the new variant has been lower in South Africa compared to the delta variant, Goldstein said, but it's unclear to what degree the population immunity in South Africa is playing. About 30% of the country has been vaccinated, but about 90% of the population has had previous COVID-19 infection.
It's too soon to predict how hospitalization rates due to the omicron variant could play out in Utah, according to the researcher. Even a small increase in hospitalizations could exhaust hospital resources, which are already being used at a high capacity.
Older adults who are vaccinated and boosted are likely to have strong protection against the disease, but it's not as strong as younger people's immunity, Goldstein said. He urged vulnerable people to remain masked during gatherings as much as possible. Residents should also consider "upgrading mask quality" if they will be indoors in a setting where it's feasible to wear masks over the holidays.
Goldstein also encouraged those with cold-like symptoms to stay away from at-risk family members.
If someone gets a booster dose now, it's too close to Christmas for it to have a large impact on preventing spread at Christmas gatherings. But the dose will help prevent New Year spread, Goldstein said, adding that it's a "really, really good idea" for protecting each other against what will likely be rapid spread in January.
Latest Utah data
School-age children accounted for 93 of Tuesday's new case count — 45 cases were ages 5-10, 22 cases were 11-13, and 26 cases were 14-17.
Health care workers administered 14,003 vaccine doses since the previous day's report, bringing total doses given in Utah to 4,448,663. That includes original doses and booster shots.
Of the new cases, 327 were "breakthrough," meaning they had been fully vaccinated more than two weeks before testing positive for COVID-19. Four breakthrough deaths were also confirmed. Now 56,533 breakthrough cases and 342 breakthrough deaths have been confirmed in Utah since vaccines became available.
On Tuesday, 444 patients were hospitalized with the coronavirus in the state, a decrease of 54 since the previous Tuesday, Dec. 14.
The latest deaths include:
- A Salt Lake County man between the ages of 45 and 64, not hospitalized
- A Weber County man, 65-84, not hospitalized
- A Box Elder County man, 45-64, not hospitalized
- A Salt Lake County man, 45-64, hospitalized
- Two Utah County men, 45-64, hospitalized
- A Davis County man, 45-64, long-term care facility resident
- A Weber County woman, 65-84, hospitalized
- A Cache County woman, 65-84, not hospitalized
- A Utah County man, 65-84, not hospitalized
- A Weber County woman, older than 85, not hospitalized
- Two Tooele County women, 65-84, long-term care facility residents
- A Davis County man, 65-84, hospitalized
- Two Washington County women, 65-84, hospitalized
- A Washington County man, 65-84, not hospitalized
- A Utah County woman, 45-64, hospitalized
- A Utah County woman, 65-84, not hospitalized
- A Box Elder County woman, 45-64, hospitalized
- A Salt Lake County woman, older than 85, not hospitalized
