- The National Weather Service predicts warmer, drier fall months for Utah and nearby states.
- Utah's summer remains on track to be among the driest on record, worsening drought conditions statewide.
- The outlook signals potential bad news for soil moisture levels, which can affect important snowpack collection efficiency.
SALT LAKE CITY — Federal forecasters weren't entirely certain how Utah would fare heading into meteorological summer.
However, after essentially the worst-case scenario played out, it's looking more like those unfavorable conditions could linger into the next season, which could signal more problems for the state as drought conditions worsen.
Odds lean toward warmer and drier than normal conditions lingering across the Beehive State over the meteorological fall months of September, October and November, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, which released its final seasonal outlook late last week.
Utah has a 50% to 70% probability of having above-normal temperatures and a 33% to 50% probability of below-normal precipitation, according to the outlook. Eastern parts of the state have the strongest odds for warmer and drier conditions along with large chunks of Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico.
What's driving the outlook?
Utah ended July on pace for its fifth-driest summer on record, but dry conditions that have lingered through most of August could put this summer closer to the bottom of summer precipitation totals since 1895. That's largely because the predominant high-pressure system needed to push monsoonal moisture into Utah set up in a different location, moving storms east of the state this year.
The Climate Prediction Center's fall outlook indicates that models project a series of high-pressure systems may settle somewhere over the West or Midwest during the season, says KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson. It could start with Utah, which has even stronger odds for above-average warmth and below-average precipitation projected for September, before either breaking down or drifting east, slightly improving precipitation odds for the entire season.
While high-pressure systems over the Four Corners area help to push monsoon moisture into Utah during the summer, they can block storms coming in from the Pacific West, which becomes more frequent again over the fall. The outlook favors normal to above-normal precipitation along the Pacific Coast, giving hope that there is moisture for Utah to tap into if high pressure breaks down or sets up farther east of the state.
"It's a probabilistic forecast. As we saw with the monsoon, this can swing either way. So, the hope is that high-pressure system ... shifts a little east and a little south, allowing for a jet stream to move into (the state) — but that's not what's forecast," he said.
Why it matters
Meteorological fall plays a vital role in Utah's water supply in a generally indirect way.
About 95% of the state's water supply is tied to its mountain snowpack. Although most of the snowpack collection comes in winter and spring, Utah's water year begins every Oct. 1, as that's when the mountains typically begin collecting snow.
Summer monsoons and less snowy fall storms still matter in the equation. Researchers have found, especially in the past two decades of drought, that more water collected in the snowpack is used to recharge underground aquifers during the spring snowmelt amid dry soil levels. This means less water for the rivers, streams and creeks that feed into the state's lakes and reservoirs.
Since soil moisture levels are essentially locked into place once snowpack collection begins, there's a tremendous amount of pressure for summer and fall to deliver for Utah's water supply.
Monsoonal storms returned to Utah late last week, and more storms are expected this week, which helps, but Johnson said it's likely not enough to overcome many of the deficits caused by summer's "nonsoon" and a poor spring before that.
We may not reverse what's happening right now with the drought, but if we can keep it where it's at or maybe improve a little bit, that's huge.
–KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson
Statewide precipitation accumulation in Utah's mountains dropped from near average in mid-April to some of the worst water year totals collected since the 1980s, per the Natural Resources Conservation Service. As of Monday, 21.8 inches of precipitation have been collected since the 2025 water year began, nearly 5 inches below the median average for this point in the year.
That's translated into poor soil moisture levels all over the state. Utah's statewide soil moisture was listed as 25.6% saturation statewide, almost 15 percentage points below last year's average and close to the driest levels for late August since at least 2006, per Conservation Service data.
Over 80% of Utah is also in severe or extreme drought, and the rest of the state is in moderate drought. Utah's reservoir system has slipped to 65% full, a tick above the state's median average for August but 17 percentage points below this time last year.
A wet fall would be ideal, but with the way models are looking, Johnson said the best-case scenario might be enough storms to improve soil moisture levels before this winter. That would help send more winter snowpack — whether it's a good season or not — into the state's reservoirs.
"We may not reverse what's happening right now with the drought, but if we can keep it where it's at or maybe improve a little bit, that's huge," he said. "Then, obviously, we want a follow-up winter that just slams us."
