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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's population growth is slowing down, but still, tens of thousands of people moved here in the past year, according to a new state population report.
Utah gained nearly 56,000 residents between July 1, 2022, and July 1 of this year, primarily through net migration, the Utah Population Committee found in a report published by the University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Wednesday.
The past year's growth is about 5,000 people fewer than what Utah gained in the same period between 2021 and 2022, as the state's growth rate fell slightly from 1.7% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023.
Emily Harris, a senior demographer for the Gardner Policy Institute, and the report's lead author, said this slowdown and other trends seem to indicate that Utah's growth is inching closer to what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Utah was the fastest-growing state between 2010 and 2020, but there were big spikes in people moving into the state since the decennial census.
"We just had this really strange increase in net migration that I don't think anyone thought was going to occur. So now I think this a more normal pattern of what we're used to seeing," she said. "I don't necessarily know if (the rate) is just going to continue to go down and down and down, but I think we're just stabilizing a bit more."
The report also found all of Utah's counties gained population in 2023 aside from Carbon and Wayne counties, though the committee estimates the two rural counties lost 102 residents combined, representing a decline of less than 1%.
What's driving Utah's growth?
The state's population committee estimates Utah gained about 31,558 residents through more people moving into than out of the state, known as net migration. It's a slight decline from last year's report but a continuation of a trend where net migration led the state's growth.
This was also the primary population driver for 17 of Utah's 29 counties, and the lone reason for growth in four counties.
Natural increase, the number of babies born over residents dying, accounted for the remaining 24,431. The year-over-year rate increased for the first time in a decade, but not because of a baby boom. Researchers say there was a "sharp decline" of 10% in annual deaths.
"This is sort of an indication that we're starting to come out of the COVID-19 death spikes that we were seeing the last couple of years," Harris said. "We're starting to see some normalization, which is a good thing."
Utah's birth rate started to decline around 2008, amid a recession. The state's and country's rates have generally lagged since then, though there was a small increase in last year's report. There were a little more than 45,000 babies born between the last half of 2022 and the first half of 2023.
Where the most increase is happening
Utah and Salt Lake counties, to no surprise, led in absolute growth. Utah County gained a little more than 22,000 residents, while Salt Lake County added close to 14,000. Combined, the two counties accounted for nearly two-thirds of the state's growth in the past year.
The report doesn't indicate which cities had the largest growth over this time, but this is a trend that has emerged regularly, especially in Utah County.
"Utah County has been growing really rapidly since 2015 at least," Harris said. "That's been a very consistent heavy hitter."
Davis County, also along the Wasatch Front, added more than 5,000 residents to place third for growth, while Washington (4,578) and Iron (2,361) counties in southwest Utah rounded out the top five.
A few surprises emerged in terms of percentage growth, though. Piute County in south-central Utah and Daggett County in northeast Utah posted population upticks of 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively, according to the report. But this is largely because it's estimated that the state's two least populated counties tacked on 113 residents combined.
Researchers found that net migration accounted for all of the population growth in both counties, but it's not quite clear why both suddenly grew the way they did. The report is primarily based on birth, death, tax, housing and school enrollment data, information that can show where people are at a given moment.
There's plenty of anecdotal evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic led to more people moving out to rural areas, but it's still too early to know if that was a factor in this year's report, said Mallory Bateman, demographic research director for Gardner Policy Institute.
"We don't get the why necessarily behind these changes with the data, we just get to see the results," she explained. "We don't know what's moving people to and from different destinations."
What's less surprising is that Iron County, last year's percentage growth leader, led all counties with populations of 5,000 or more. It gained more than 2,300 new residents over the past year, an increase of 3.7%. It's classified as a "ring county," one that borders major urban areas like Washington County has become.
Juab, Tooele, and Wasatch counties also posted strong percentage growth as the demand for housing in Utah expands out from its major urban cores.
"(They) are kind of starting to feel some of that expansion and more people moving into those areas," Harris said. "That's something we've also been seeing for the last few years and I think that's where growth is going right now."
Utah and Rich counties each grew by 3.1% from 2022 to 2023, rounding out the top five. Rich County, the state's third least-populated county, added 82 new residents.
How Utah's 2023 growth compares to other states is not yet known. The Census Bureau, which uses different data to estimate populations, will likely release its statewide, county and municipal data in the coming weeks and months.
