Pick Six Previews: Despite roster turnover, Ohio State the favorite over Texas

SALT LAKE CITY — The best time of year is upon us!

After a long seven-month offseason, college football is finally here and I am excited to be back at KSL.com writing BYU and Utah previews again this season. New this fall, we are adding a third weekly preview with the national game of the week.

According to the Coaches Poll, we have a No. 1 vs. No. 2 season-opener for the first time in college football history. Combine that with a semifinal rematch of two blue blood programs, the defending national champion, and a Manning at quarterback and you have the most anticipated game of 2025.

Texas travels to Ohio State in the headliner matchup among 11 Power Four vs. Power Four games this extended weekend. While this one kicks off (10 a.m. MDT, FOX) a brand new season, it also marks the end of a legendary career for ESPN College GameDay's Lee Corso.

He'll make his final mascot headgear selection at The Horseshoe will take at approximately 9:50 a.m. MDT on ESPN.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Ohio State 83.3 (2nd of 68 Power 4) | Texas 77.7 (3rd)
2024 season: Ohio State 89.2 (1st) | Texas 81.8 (3rd)
2025 projection: Ohio State (3rd) | Texas (2nd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected both Texas and Ohio State to make the College Football Playoff again. Ohio State is projected to play Penn State in the Big Ten title game, while Texas is projected to face Alabama in the SEC title.

These programs have proven track records under Ryan Day and Steve Sarkisian as they are both in the top three of the three-year average.

Ohio State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Ohio State offense (2024): 2nd of 68 Power 4 (1st passing, 9th rushing)
Texas defense (2024): 2nd of 68 Power 4 (2nd passing, 5th rushing)

Ohio State was the definition of a "super team," and they have the national title to show for it. In all, 22 players earned All-Big Ten recognition — yes, even the long snapper — and they had 14 players were drafted, one off the all-time NFL record. That including four first-rounders and seven in the first 45 picks.

Even with all that star power gone, Ohio State has reloaded with the No. 3 five-year recruiting average, in addition to having nine offensive starters that were former Top 200 recruits. The strength is again in the receiver room, with Jeremiah Smith back after his breakout freshman season in which he was drawing NFL first-round

grades as an 18 year-old.

If Texas tries to double team Smith, a whole room of five-stars will benefit: Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss, Quincy Porter, Mylan Graham, etc.

Another strength is the offensive line, which brings back three playoff starters in Carson Hinzman, Tegra Tshabola and Austin Siereveld.

Ohio State's questions are at coordinator and quarterback. Brian Hartline takes over for the departing Chip Kelly, while five-star freshman Julian Sayin won the starting job left behind by Will Howard.

Texas has their share of concerns, as well, as they have three new starters on the defensive line and must replace Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron and All-SEC Andrew Mukuba. There is no lack of star power on the Longhorn defense, with multiple All-America candidates like Collin Simmons, Anthony Hill and Michael Taaffe.

Texas with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Texas offense (2024): 14th of 68 Power 4 (7th passing, 27th rushing)
Ohio State defense (2024): 1st of 68 Power 4 (3rd passing, 1st rushing)

It's a similar dynamic on this side of the ball: a new quarterback facing off against a new-look defense packed with former blue-chip recruits. Arch Manning enters the season as the Heisman favorite and has a bit more game experience than his counterpart, having thrown nine touchdowns last season with a start against Mississippi State.

Manning can match the arm strength of 2024 starter Quinn Ewers, but he adds mobility to the offense that will help in key spots like short-yardage and goal-line situations.

At the skill positions, it is a National Signing Day "who's who," with five stars all over the field.

Two areas will define this side: Texas' new offensive line against Ohio State's new defensive line, and ace play-caller Sarkisian facing college newcomer Matt Patricia. Look for the Buckeyes line to hold their ground, but I do think Texas has the coordinator advantage here.

Game prediction

The main storyline all summer about this game was centered on how much talent Ohio State lost. Really, the same should be said about Texas, and how their offensive line, defensive line, and secondary have to be rebuilt.

Both sides lost a ton since their 2024 playoff thriller, but both sides are among the nation's best high school recruiters. They have reloaded into national title contenders yet again, and both have new quarterbacks for this marquee opener.

I'll take the Ohio State receivers against the Texas secondary, along with some homefield advantage in Columbus. As coach Corso may say, "Not so fast my friend, gimme that Buckeye head!"

Ohio State 24 | Texas 21

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