MIAMI — In the Fiesta Bowl semifinal, two contrasting styles faced off: Miami's slow, methodical offense against the hyper-tempo spread attack of Ole Miss.
Miami clearly dictated the pace of play, as they nickel and dimed down the field, leading to long scoring drives, and they dominated the time of possession by controlling the ball for 41 minutes (19 for Ole Miss).
Ultimately, with the game on the line, Carson Beck led a 15-play drive and scrambled in for the game-winning touchdown to clinch a 31-27 win for Miami, sending the Hurricanes back to the national title stage for the first time in a quarter century.
The Peach Bowl semifinal was a Big Ten rematch, but this one turned ugly fast. Indiana's D'Angelo Ponds stole the first pass of the game and ran it back 25 yards for the opening-play pick six. It was all Indiana from there.
The defense forced three turnovers in the first half — converted them all into short touchdowns — and Indiana raced to a 35-7 halftime lead. The 56-22 final, along with its 38-3 Rose Bowl blowout of Alabama, has Indiana surging toward its first national title in school history.
The final stage is set. Miami looks to secure the school's sixth national title and gets the luxury of doing so on their home field. Meanwhile, Indiana is in uncharted territory as the losingest program in major college football history, but enter as favorites to become the sport's first new champion since 1996 (5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Indiana 41.3 (56th of 68 Power 4) | Miami 56.5 (22nd)
2024 season: Indiana 72.8 (8th) | Miami 74.8 (7th)
2025 season: Indiana 94.7 (1st) | Miami 79.5 (6th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Indiana to finish sixth in the Big Ten. It may not sound high, but most magazines picked Illinois as the more likely 2024 surprise team to repeat in 2025.
I thought Indiana had the more compelling case after Curt Cignetti pulled off another top-25 transfer class, which specifically targeted its roster openings of departing starters. Indiana is 15-0, won the Big Ten title, destroyed Alabama and Oregon by a combined 69 points, and is now the only remaining undefeated team in America.
I selected Miami to finish No. 9 and earn an at-large bid to the playoff. They were selected as the final team in the bracket after a 10-2 regular season that featured a head-to-head win over Notre Dame, the other final team in contention.
Miami upset Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round, took out the defending national champions Ohio State on New Years Eve, and made it three in a row by beating No. 6 Ole Miss. They check in at No. 6 in Game Grader.
Indiana with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Indiana offense: 6th of 68 Power 4 teams, 1st passing, 13th rushing
Miami defense: 5th of 68 Power 4 teams, 6th pass defense, 4th rush defense
Indiana has the Heisman winner in Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, a one-two punch at receiver with Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper, and a Joe Moore Award finalist offensive line.
Mendoza calls them "a bunch of misfits"; and maybe coming out of high school that label fit, but Cignetti has coached them into an absolute machine as a unit.
Mendoza has more passing touchdowns than incompletions so far in the playoffs — and that includes five touchdowns against Oregon's No. 1 ranked pass defense last week. As an overall defense, this Miami unit is more on par with the Ohio State defense that held Indiana to a season-low in points.
For the underdog Canes to win, they need their stars to be stars, and that means an all-time disruptive performance from Rueben Bain, Akheem Mesidor, and Ahmad Moten in the trenches. They need to unsettle Mendoza and allow for their high-speed defense to pursue him and cut off scramble lanes.
Miami with the ball
Miami offense: 19th of 68 Power 4 teams, 6th passing, 24th rushing
Indiana defense: 12th of 68 Power 4 teams, 9th pass defense, 5th rush defense
Miami wore down the A&M defense with a consistent, physical, second-half run game and then beat the Ole Miss defense with a constant barrage of screen passes. They also have a pure X-factor player in receiver Malachi Toney, who took a screen pass and displayed uncanny field vision to cut across the field and surge to the end zone for the fourth-quarter touchdown.
Again, for Miami they need their stars to elevate, and Toney needs 10-15 touches in this game.
This is the side of the ball where Indiana separates a bit. This title game features two elite defenses, one elite offense, and one above average offense. Miami's offense is the statistical weakness; and yes, we are grading on a high curve here in the title.
Indiana has a top five rushing defense — Miami's rush offense is average in most categories — which will place even more pressure onto Beck and the pass game.
The screen passes and short passes worked against an average Ole Miss unit but will be swarmed by Indiana's defense. Miami will struggle to get consistent completions downfield in the intermediate and vertical pass game because of Indiana's pair of explosive pass defense (No. 18) and pass rush (No. 1).
Game prediction
Look for a lower scoring game, with a pair of bottom-five pace of play teams. Full-season Game Grader has this as an Indiana win by 9. Recent "last four games only" Game Grader has Indiana by 11.
The last variable is a partial home field advantage for Miami: they will not get the in-game benefits of a 100% home crowd, but they get the "no travel" advantage.
All of that together, I see a double-digit Indiana victory; and for the first time since 1996, college football gets a new first-time national champion. Indiana is the strongest, most complete, and best coached team in America.
Indiana 27 | Miami 17
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Brett Ciancia
