ATLANTA — Leading up to its quarterfinal in the Rose Bowl, Curt Cignetti was asked about Alabama's legacy, tradition, and championship history. He threw it back at the reporters, saying "You probably know more about the mystique than (our team does) — our guys just know what they see on tape."
That same business-like approach was reflected in his team's performance: a methodical, complete, thorough beatdown of the 21st Century dynasty. Indiana destroyed Alabama 38-3 (+200 yardage) in the Rose Bowl.
Symbolically, it was a changing of the guard — the upstart, transfer-heavy, veteran team destroying the five-star high school recruiting machine. Of course, there is much more to Cignetti's historic program turnaround than just his high percentage of transfers.
Like the Saban dynasty, Cignetti has elite coordinators and a never-ending attention to detail — he was still laser-focused late in the fourth quarter and didn't crack a smile until the clock read 0:00.
Indiana's reward is a rematch with the super-talented Oregon Ducks in the Peach Bowl semifinal. In October, Indiana went into Autzen Stadium and left with a 30-20 win, but the young Oregon roster has grown stronger every week since.
In the Orange Bowl, Oregon shut out Texas Tech 23-0. This all-Big Ten semifinal kicks off Friday night from Atlanta (5:30 p.m MST, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Indiana 41.3 (56th of 68 Power 4) | Oregon 77.4 (4th)
2024 season: Indiana 72.8 (8th) | Oregon 77.4 (4th)
2025 season: Indiana 91.4 (1st) | Oregon 85.1 (3rd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Indiana to finish sixth in the Big Ten. It may not sound high, but most magazines picked Illinois as the more likely 2024 surprise team to repeat in 2025.
I thought Indiana had the more compelling case after Cignetti pulled off another top-25 transfer class, which specifically targeted their roster openings of departing starters.
Indiana is 14-0, won the Big Ten title, destroyed Alabama, and is now the only remaining undefeated team in America.
I selected Oregon as an at-large playoff team and wrote that they were my "national champion pick … for 2026." On a per-player average, they signed the No. 1 high school recruiting class and the No. 1 transfer class.
Their raw talent was undeniable but seemed like the younger roster was a year away from their title breakthrough. Ranked No. 3 in Game Grader and playing in the semifinal, maybe they are a year ahead of schedule after all.
Indiana with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Indiana offense: 6th of 68 Power 4 teams, 1st passing, 13th rushing
Oregon defense: 4th of 68 Power 4 teams, 1st pass defense, 16th rush defense
In the opening round game, Oregon gave up 509 yards and 34 points to non-AQ James Madison, but they came out refocused in the Orange Bowl. Dan Lanning's defense pulled off one of the most dominant performances of 2025, holding the 42-points per game Texas Tech offense off the scoreboard.
They rattled quarterback Behren Morton all game, forced four turnovers, four three-and-outs, and three fourth-down stops.
Perhaps the Texas Tech offense had not been tested by a blue-chip roster yet. That is not the case with Indiana's No. 1 passing offense and Heisman winner. Fernando Mendoza already had success against this Oregon defense back in October, and led victories over the top two recruiting powerhouses Ohio State and Alabama.
This has the feel of a national title game, at least statistically, where there are no weaknesses on either side and both teams rank in the top 10 of almost every metric. The biggest strength vs. strength is here when Indiana is throwing the ball. Per my opponent-adjusted numbers, Indiana has the No. 1 passing offense while Oregon has the No. 1 passing defense.
Oregon with the ball
Oregon offense: 4th of 68 Power 4 teams, 3rd passing, 2nd rushing
Indiana defense: 12th of 68 Power 4 teams, 9th pass defense, 7th rush defense
The 23-0 score hides how Texas Tech's defense limited Oregon's offense to just 9 points. One touchdown came after a Morton fumble was returned inside the 5 yard-line, and the other short score came in the final seconds of the game.
Dante Moore did enough to grind out points (26-of-33, 234 yards, 1 INT), but they were held to zero 10+ yard runs and just three 20+ passes. Oregon came in leading the nation averaging seven 20+ yard explosive plays per game.
Indiana's defense is comparable to Texas Tech's unit, and remember that in their October 30-20 game, 7 points came off an Oregon pick six, meaning the Hoosiers held Oregon's offense to just 13 points.
This follows the trend of Oregon being held to half (or less) of their usual scoring and yards against their five strongest opposing defenses.
Game prediction
This semifinal features the No. 1 and No. 3 overall teams in Game Grader — and the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in "last four games only" Game Grader — with Indiana No. 1 in both. There are no statistical weaknesses across the board and both sides of the ball are overflowing with star power.
Back in the October matchup, Indiana sacked Moore six times and picked him off twice, and held Oregon to a season-low 267 total yards. The Indiana defense should slow down Moore again and eliminate their explosive plays (Indiana is No. 5 vs. long runs and No. 13 vs. long passes).
But unlike Tech's offensive meltdown in the Orange Bowl, Indiana's offense will punch back with the Heisman winner and No. 1 passing offense. Indiana is the strongest, most complete, and best coached team in America.
Indiana 23 | Oregon 17
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Brett Ciancia
