SALT LAKE CITY — On New Year's Eve, Miami knocked out defending national champions Ohio State 24-14 and got some payback for its 2002 BCS national title loss.
Keionte Scott made the defining, game-changing play when he jumped a horizontal screen pass and raced 72 yards for a pick six. Though it happened early in the second quarter, the 14-0 Miami lead changed the complexion of the game and set Miami toward the win.
Then, 24 hours later on New Year's night, the Sugar Bowl hosted an SEC shootout, with Ole Miss winning its rematch over Georgia 39-34 (+130 yardage). Georgia went up 21-12 when Daylin Everett took a fumble back for a touchdown, but Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss would not be denied.
Chambliss threw for 362 yards and two scores (30-of-46 passing), All-America RB Kewan Lacy rushed for 98 and two scores, and kicker Lucas Carneiro hit three 47+ yard field goals, including the walk-off winner.
Georgia tied the game with 55 seconds left, but Chambliss hit De'Zhaun Stribling for a 40-yard gain to set up the long game-winning kick. No Lane Kiffin, no problem.
Miami is chasing its first national title since 2001, while Ole Miss has never won an Associated Press national title. This Fiesta Bowl semifinal has it all: an elite defensive line, efficient quarterbacks, and plenty of future NFL draft picks (5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Miami 56.5 (22nd of 68 Power 4) | Ole Miss 69.6 (10th)
2024 season: Miami 74.8 (7th) | Ole Miss 82.6 (2nd)
2025 season: Miami 81.1 (6th) | Ole Miss 77.2 (7th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Miami to finish No. 9 and earn an at-large bid to the playoff. They were selected as the final team in the bracket after a 10-2 regular season that featured a head-to-head win over Notre Dame, the other final team in contention.
Miami upset Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round and then made it two in a row, upsetting Ohio State. They check in at No. 6 in Game Grader.
Right behind them at No. 7 is Ole Miss. This was a surprise team that was picked toward the middle of the SEC but surged to an 11-1 regular season. They routed Tulane in the opening round and then avenged their lone loss, a 9-point loss to Georgia in October, by beating the Dawgs in the Sugar Bowl.
Former head coach Lane Kiffin signed top-rated transfer classes for several years in a row, but left for LSU in December before his finished product roster got to compete in their first-ever playoff.
They are rallying behind defensive coordinator Pete Golding, and several of Kiffin's LSU staffers remained at Ole Miss to finish the playoff run.
Miami with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Miami offense: 18th of 68 Power 4 teams, 8th passing, 22nd rushing
Ole Miss defense: 39th of 68 Power 4 teams, 17th pass defense, 55th rush defense
Miami's offense only scored 17 points (seven were from a pick six) against Ohio State, but the performance was more impressive than the scoreboard would suggest.
They were able to stay ahead of schedule with a consistent run game and then converted critical third downs (7-of-14) against the No. 1 defense in America.
Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson called long, meticulous, clock-melting drives to keep Ohio State's high-scoring offense on the sideline. Look for a similar strategy here to attempt to slow down the No. 8 fastest-paced offense of Ole Miss.
If Miami was able to generate 175 rushing yards on A&M, and then consistently execute on third downs against Ohio State, they should do similar against Ole Miss.
The Ole Miss defense is the weakest stat unit left in the bracket, ranked just 39th of 68 Power Four in my opponent-adjusted defense — 55th vs. the run — while Miami is elite in most areas. Mark Fletcher should get consistent yards on the ground to keep Carson Beck ahead of schedule.
Ole Miss with the ball
Ole Miss offense: 8th of 68 Power 4 teams, 12th passing, 16th rushingMiami defense: 5th of 68 Power 4 teams, 6th pass defense, 3rd rush defense
This side of the ball is your true "strength vs. strength." Miami sacked Julian Sayin five times, kept him uncomfortable all game, and they completely neutralized the Buckeyes ground game (45 rush yards, 1.8 per carry).
Their defensive line is packed with game-wreckers, their secondary covers well (No. 6 passing defense), and their overall team speed matches up well with the Ole Miss spread attack.
Don't count out Chambliss. The Division II transfer who bet on himself to move all the way up from the Great Lakes Conference to the SEC has posted eight 300+ passing games in his 12 starts. He is joined in the backfield by All-America RB Kewan Lacy, who came back from an injury to deliver a physical, workhorse effort against Georgia.
This comes down to whether Miami can cover receivers long enough, disrupt Chambliss, and keep him contained from scrambling. I side with the Miami defense here.
Game prediction
Ole Miss has a superstar at quarterback, an All-America running back, and a deeper receiving corps. From there, I'd give Miami the edge at every other position, and they win every statistical matchup per my opponent-adjusted categories.
Mario Cristobal has dominated in talent acquisition — both transfers and high school recruiting — and he has Miami back in national title contention.
Miami 31 | Ole Miss 26
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Brett Ciancia
