Pick Six Previews: Utah poised for bounce-back season, starting with win over UCLA

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah kicks off the 2025 season with a Power Four test against an old Pac-12 rival.

The Utes head to Pasadena to face UCLA in the season opener at the Rose Bowl. Both teams are coming off of disappointing losing seasons and are looking for a tone-setter.

Head coach Kyle Whittingham enters his 21st season as Utah's head coach, and is 16-4 all-time in season-openers. UCLA leads the all-time series 12-9, but Utah leads 8-4 since Utah moved up to the power level in 2011.

This one kicks off in the late window Saturday night (9 p.m. MDT, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Utah 55.4 (23rd of 68 Power 4) | UCLA 54.8 (25th)
2024 season: Utah 44.9 (48th) | UCLA 43.1 (51st)
2025 projection: Utah (22nd) | UCLA (51st)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish fourth in a wide-open Big 12 race, and UCLA down at No. 13 in the Big Ten. Utah earned a top-25 rank in my magazine, despite being overlooked by the Associated Press and Coaches Polls.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2024): 66th of 68 Power 4 (64th passing, 62nd rushing)
UCLA defense (2024): 31st of 68 Power 4 (32nd passing, 20th rushing)

In 2023, head coach Kyle Whittingham called it "the Twilight Zone," and I agreed that it was the worst injury season I have ever seen. Last year, it continued, but specifically with the quarterback room where Utah was down to their fifth-stringer at times. It caused a collapse on offense and Utah finished in the bottom five of all my opponent-adjusted metrics.

Whittingham made a change on offense by hiring Jason Beck, the mastermind behind New Mexico's top-rated rushing attack. He brought his quarterback with him, and Devon Dampier rolled up 3,934 total yards in this scheme last year — 1,184 of those yards were on the ground, with 520 after contact.

Dampier was sacked just four times on 100 pressures last year for the No. 1 pocket elusiveness in the nation.

The new scheme, and Dampier's adjustment to tougher competition in the Big 12, are the two key storylines to Utah's entire 2025 season. He will operate behind my No. 1 ranked offensive line in the Big 12, where Utah will, once again, look to establish a consistent run push.

Their first test is a Power Four opponent, but UCLA's defense must replace all 11 starters off of their middle-of-the-pack unit last year. There is a lack of star power here, as only two of their 2025 starters placed on the Shrine Bowl 1,000 (NFL draft watchlist), and only three starters were former four-star recruits.

The defensive line lost all starters and most contributors from 2024. This line-of-scrimmage matchup tilts heavily in Utah's favor.

UCLA with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

UCLA offense (2024): 40th of 68 Power 4 (26th passing, 66th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 18th of 68 Power 4 (9th passing, 37th rushing)

Former five-star and Tennessee starter Nico Iamaleava shocked the college football world by effectively holding out of spring ball, and eventually landed at UCLA.

He still has sky-high potential but took some growing pains against FBS winning teams last year (six games), where he finished 85th in QB Rating, 88th in yards per attempt, and 80th in completion percentage.

UCLA needs Iamaleava to play up to his five-star billing and be the offensive weapon to build around.

Last year, it was a completely broken unit, and the Eric Bieniemy era lasted just eight months as he sunk UCLA from a top-25 rushing attack (2023) down to one of the nation's worst in 2024. Not a single UCLA offensive player landed on the All-Big Ten team last season — not even an honorable mention.

As for Utah's defense, very few coordinators in America have earned the high level of trust I have for Morgan Scalley. Last season, with zero help from the offense, Utah's defense still placed in the top 20 of most stat categories.

This year, Logan Fano is the headliner in the trenches but they must replace their other five best defensive linemen. There are zero questions at linebacker, with Lander Barton returning as the leader and original 2023 starter Levani Damuni back from injury.

Game prediction

Utah has the advantage on both sides of the ball here. While both teams had similar Game Grader rankings last year, Utah's was explained by key injuries, and their offseason saw the addition of a top transfer quarterback and his coordinator that just led the No. 1 rushing attack in America.

Meanwhile, UCLA's offseason storyline was their roster and starting lineup getting poached by bigger spenders in the transfer market. The major exception to that pattern was their addition of Iamaleava, but that headliner doesn't cover up for all the other attrition from the winter cycle.

Utah is poised for a bounce-back season and deserves top-25 preseason accolades; I cannot say the same for UCLA. The Rose Bowl may have more red-clad Utes in the stands than Bruin fans.

Utah 30 | UCLA 20

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