Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
WASHINGTON — For crime experts and researchers like Jeff Asher, the delay in getting reliable data from the FBI in a timely manner is a source of major frustration.
"There's nothing else in American society that I can think of, that we're like, 'Oh, it's OK to have a nine-month lag in terms of knowing these trends.' Inflation, jobs reports, baseball. We expect a fast understanding of the general trend, even if we can argue about what's causing (them)," he told CNN.
"With crime data, we're like, 'It's OK to wait nine months, then we'll eventually understand what's happening.' We're making literal life-and-death decisions based on a poor understanding nationally and locally of what's happening."
In September, Asher's company AH Datalytics launched the Real-Time Crime Index, a site that analyzes recent crime data from nearly 300 law enforcement agencies to produce a graph showing nationwide crime trends.
The FBI says it is also moving toward timeliness. The bureau said it plans to begin releasing crime stats on a monthly basis "in the coming months."
"This marks the culmination of multiple years of effort and a significant shift towards providing more timely data to consumers," the FBI said in a statement.
As of mid-October, the Real-Time Crime Index included crime data through August, bringing the public vital data months ahead of the FBI. According to their analysis, murders are down 15.9% and violent crime is down 4.1% so far this year compared to the same point last year.
"We shouldn't be having conversations about what is the trend, whether it's going up or going down," Asher said. "This tool is hopefully designed to provide that basic understanding of what the trend is so that we can have more fruitful conversations."
Monthly release of FBI crime stats
The basic explanation for the FBI's lag in providing crime data is that accuracy takes time, experts said.
There are about 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the U.S., and many voluntarily submit their data to the state or the FBI through the Uniform Crime Reporting Program. The FBI then does significant quality control checks to make sure the data is accurate and reliable before releasing their analysis, but that takes some time, according to Alex Piquero, the former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the Department of Justice's primary statistical agency.
The FBI has recently moved to speed up its processes. In September 2020, the bureau began releasing crime data every quarter, saying on its website, "this schedule provides greater timeliness for national crime data releases."
The site will display "up-to-date trend data," albeit with a three-month lag to allow states the time to report their crime stats. This crime data "will likely change" over time, but the FBI said it expects the "transparency will add to data quality" because agencies will be able to routinely review and revise the data.
Index hopes to complement FBI data
Experts in the field of crime stats have noticed some of the drawbacks of the FBI's focus on accuracy over timeliness. Asher and other members of AH Datalytics told CNN they see their work as a complement to the FBI's data rather than a replacement.
"There's value in understanding what's happening fast, and then there's value in taking a bigger picture, more precise view and applying a more rigorous methodology to your understanding," Asher said.
CNN chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst John Miller said the FBI's refined, historic data is "essential," but noted that real-time raw data is more useful for a police chief, crime strategist or elected official for spotting trends and adjusting tactics.
"The numbers may not be as precise, but as a form of radar for national crime trends they will be within the margin of error and come with the speed of need," he said.
The Real-Time Crime Index helps solve one such issue, but Doleac noted how little data there is about other basic parts of the criminal justice system, such as the courts and Department of Corrections.
"My team and I are trying to envision a future where we have more data to be able to guide our efforts, and so this is all part of the process of shifting in that direction," she said.
A 'major contribution' to the public
Piquero praised the Real-Time Crime Index as a "major contribution" to the public and said it was "really useful" in providing up-to-date information without significantly sacrificing accuracy.
"They provide a useful pulse, I would argue," he told CNN. "A pulse is not representative of everybody and every city, but it's better than nothing, and that's what I think the value is of that."
Yet the need for a tool like the Real-Time Crime Index speaks to broader issues with the government's approach to crime data, he said.
"When people have to do the work that I think the federal government should be doing, that's a bit of a problem in my mind," Piquero said.
"We see this as a public good," Asher said. "There's no subscription cost. Agencies don't have to pay to participate. Nobody has to pay to get access to the data. We'd love for this to be government-run in some way, and it's our hope that we'll eventually get there."
