Estimated read time: 2-3 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah pollsters have for months been trying to gauge the race for the Governor's Mansion.
The field of candidates at first swelled and then narrowed after the state party conventions in April, leaving just one Democrat, law professor Chris Peterson, through to the November general election. Four Republicans now will duke it out for their party's nomination, and local polling firms recently issued what is likely the last of their insights before the end of primary voting on June 30.
Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox had emerged as an early frontrunner in the race, but former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. has polled nearly as well throughout. Former House Speaker Greg Hughes is making a late run at the nomination, and businessman Thomas Wright believes, as he told Gov. Gary Herbert, that he can hit "10 birdies in a row" and make the race competitive.
Here's a look at how the polls have painted the campaign:
Jason Perry is the director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. The institute conducted polling about the governor's race in conjunction with the Deseret News.
"Polling is an art form," Perry said. "To do it effectively requires a lot of time. It requires a lot of effort and a lot of thought, because you want to make sure you are polling the people in the state who are going to be voting." He also said the questions in a poll undergo thorough vetting to make sure they're not leading or vague.
Perry said the most important thing to remember when reading a poll is that it represents "just a snapshot in a moment in time."
"That gives you a feel for what is happening in that period of time," he said, "but you really have to compare that over a longer period of time. Comparing it to other polls. Sometimes you'll look at a poll and you'll see that it's just ... beyond any of the other polls that are coming out." He said it's important to scrutinize the methodology and the people behind the poll, as many campaigns and special interest groups conduct their own polling.
"The polls that I use, the polls that I cite, the polls that I use to try to look at the trends, are the ones that are done impartially," Perry said.
And despite the challenges and shortcomings of polling, Perry said, it can be an important tool for candidates and public officials to gauge the public mood and even drive policy.
"An effective poll gives a very effective view of where Utahns are on any particular issue. And it does have an impact on these elected officials, and sometimes it has a big impact on the policies themselves."
