SALT LAKE CITY — Utah remains one of the most famously conservative states in the Union; however, an extensive array of factors may turn the Beehive State blue before long.

In 2016, Nate Silver, editor-in-chief of the elections analysis site FiveThirtyEight and one of the most accurate predictors of President Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential odds, claimed that Utah could turn into a swing state as soon as 2024 or 2028 and behave like Colorado, electorally, in eight to 16 years. He argued in a 2017 interview with the Deseret News that the state already looks and breathes blue, despite voting red.

Silver is far from the only one noticing a strange trend in Utah’s electoral habits, however, and it’s a subject worth breaking down. Here are some of the elements causing the State of Deseret to change:

Migration from blue states

Many new residents are entering Utah, often compelled by low taxes and cost of living, the fastest growing economy by job growth in the nation, and the state’s natural beauty.

Utah is experiencing one of the fastest population growths in the country, according to the United States Census. In addition to a high birth rate, much of this growth is due to migration from blue states. For example, in 2016 alone, 23,000 new Utah residents came from California.

Tech is also a traditionally blue industry, and Utah has one of the fastest-growing tech fields in the U.S., and already has one of the largest tech hubs in America. Workers, it seems, are fleeing Silicon Valley in favor of the Silicon Slopes.

At a time when approximately 100,000 new people have moved to the state in the last five years and an expected doubling of the population by 2065, demographics have a surprising ability to shift electoral districts and voting tendencies. When many of these new residents trend blue, they can also swing elections.

Young people

It’s no secret that millennials have overwhelmingly trended liberal. It’s practically ascended into a joke with the coining of pop-cultural phrases like "millennial snowflake."

What might be more surprising is that Gen Z, the generation following millennials and now entering adulthood, is adopting their predecessors’ left-leaning habits. According to a study by Pew Research published in January, Gen Zers mirror millennials in their disapproval ratings of Trump, convictions on climate change, and beliefs on the role of government.

Gen Z, the study notes, is on track to be the most racially diverse and well-educated generation ever, with strengthening beliefs that this diversity benefits society.

Even younger Republicans, the study claims, have an increasing opinion that there is racial inequality to be overcome in the U.S., in stark contrast to the older generations before them; however, this generational research is still new and developing, with an early survey in 2017 that claimed Gen Z was possibly the most conservative generation since World War II.

While the political leanings of the new generation might not be set in stone, the newest data doesn’t paint an optimistic picture for traditional conservatives. If that wasn’t enough to make the Beehive State Republican residents worry, Utah also has the youngest median age in the nation at 31.0 years, according to the U.S. Census data as of 2018, which means the impact of young people’s politics is sure to start emerging in the voting booth.

Low Trump support

Changing demographics and new voters aren’t the only things shifting Utah left. A lack of support also stems from inside Utah’s right wing.

In 2016, the president gained the lowest support in the country from inside his party, winning only 14% of the vote in the 2016 Republican caucus and 64% in the party’s general election.

From an early interest in third-party candidates like Evan McMullin to electing the notable, often anti-Trump Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, Utah has shown clear reservations about the 45th president. Trump’s current approval rating in Utah is under 50%, and that rating has remained largely consistent for years.

Many of Utah’s Republicans are parting ways with the party’s mainstream ideology, and Democrats are doing everything they can to mobilize support and persuade the disillusioned in the meantime.

Party mobilization

From outpacing Republicans’ rate of growth in new voter registrations and allowing fewer races to be run uncontested, the left aimed for a blue wave in the 2018 midterms.

While Utah’s status as a red state remained far from at-risk last year, it’s irrefutable that Democrats garnered unexpected gains with one new state Senate seat and four new state House seats. The margins of Republican wins have also decreased in 22 of 23 House districts since 2016, and eight of 10 Senate races. Rep. Ben McAdams’ upset victory into the U.S. House of Representatives was also touted as an unexpected national victory for blue-dog Democrats.

Ballot measures, including a controversial proposition on medical marijuana and another on Medicaid expansion, may have also bolstered left-wing turnout.

These gains also came in a moment where Utah’s Republican Party was deep in controversy and debt and largely unable to support its candidates. But with the party having paid off their debts in June, and new Utah Republican Chairman Derek Brown already aiming to take back McAdams’ seat and treating elections as a top priority, local conservatives are regaining momentum.

New Utah Democratic Party Chairman Jeff Merchant is also counting the days until 2020, with hopes of further chipping away at Utah’s red supermajority.

Which party will live up to their goals remains yet to be seen, but future elections may be unexpectedly competitive.

Kaitlyn Workman is a University of Utah political science and mass communications major. Contact her at kworkman@deseretdigital.com

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