Pick Six Previews: Virginia the team to beat in ACC meeting with California

SALT LAKE CITY — With a 7-1 record through two months, Virginia entered the Associated Press top 15 for the first time since 2004.

After a run of losing seasons, this offseason they fundraised and signed a breakthrough transfer class. The investment and the retention of head coach Tony Elliott has paid off.

Virginia shocked the nation with its double overtime 46-38 win over then-No. 8 Florida State. They continue to survive each week with three of their last four wins all coming in overtime. The one non-OT game was tied 20-20 before Virginia got a game-winning safety to beat Washington State 22-20.

California got some negative national attention in the summer when apparently some big-time donors threatened to withhold support until general manager Ron Rivera was given more control. Several starters hit the portal, including quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who is atop the Heisman leaderboard for Indiana.

With low preseason expectations, Cal impressed in September with a 4-1 start, and fans were already plotting their path to the ACC title game with the "Calgorithm. They have since dropped two more league games but are chasing bowl eligibility (1:45 p.m. MDT, ESPN2).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Virginia 33.1 (66th of 68 Power 4) | California 42.5 (55th)
2024 season: Virginia 33.2 (61st) | California 49.3 (41st)
2025 season: Virginia 53.5 (39th) | California 39.3 (57th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Virginia to finish 12th in the ACC and Cal to finish 14th in the 17-team league. Those preseason predictions sound low, but I actually had both teams one or two spots higher than all other preview magazines, as well as their ACC media poll.

So far, they have both proven me right.

Virginia is 4-0 in league play, with a 48-20 win over Stanford and then three overtime wins over Florida State, Louisville, and North Carolina. Last week, they stopped UNC's 2-point attempt within inches of the pylon to save a 17-16 win.

Despite its 7-1 record, they are just 39th in Game Grader due to these tight margins.

Cal had double-digit wins over Oregon State and Minnesota, and one-score wins over Boston College and UNC. Last week, they blew a late lead and lost in overtime to Virginia Tech 42-34. They are just outside the bottom 10 of Power Four Game Grader at 57th of 68.

Virginia with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Virginia offense: 49th of 68 Power 4 teams, 43rd passing, 30th rushing
California defense: 63rd of 68 Power 4 teams, 50th pass defense, 66th rush defense

The biggest transfer portal move was the signing of quarterback Chandler Morris. The senior has posted the program's best QB rating since 2021 (Brennan Armstrong) and is in the ACC's top half of most passing categories.

A key storyline has been Morris' left shoulder injury that occurred a few games back and has been a lingering issue.

Virginia's offensive performance before and after the injury is a striking difference:

• First 5 games: 540 yards per game, 6.8 yards per play, top 25 opponent-adjusted
• Last 3 games: 265 yards per game, 4.3 yards per play, bottom 10 opponent-adjusted

If Morris' pass game remains limited here Saturday, look for Virginia to pivot to a run-heavy scheme. Cal simply could not stop Virginia Tech's ground game last week, especially in the second half and overtime when Virginia Tech ran the ball on 36 of 44 plays (275 rushing yards allowed after halftime).

Another Virginia transfer addition, J'Mari Taylor, ranks sixth in the ACC with 72 yards per game and should go for 100+ Saturday.

California with the ball

California offense: 65th of 68 Power 4 teams, 56th passing, 68th rushing
Virginia defense: 49th of 68 Power 4 teams, 51st pass defense, 33rd rush defense

With Mendoza gone to Indiana, true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele beat out Ohio State transfer Devin Brown for the starting job. He was phenomenal in the first three games (6 TD, 1 INT), going 3-0, but has slowed down since (5 TD, 6 INT).

The stats may look a bit better with some help from the receivers, a group that dropped 11 balls the past two games — two of which were dropped touchdowns against Virginia Tech, and either of them could have flipped the outcome to a win.

There is not much help at all from the run game; in fact, California enters November ranked dead last — 68th of 68 — in my opponent-adjusted rushing stat. This side of the ball is a clear advantage for Virginia.

Game prediction

Although the Virginia offense has cooled off the past few games, they have grinded out four straight close wins and are riding into November with their best momentum in decades.

My season-long Game Grader formula suggests Virginia should be favored by 5 points; and if you narrow it down to the last four games for a more recent view, that margin increases to a full touchdown.

Virginia will continue its win streak but will not need an overtime miracle this week.

Virginia 31 | California 23

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