SALT LAKE CITY — A pair of 4-2 teams meet in a Big 12 title elimination game, with Baylor heading to TCU in what these rivals now call The Bluebonnet Battle.
This is one of the most-played rivalries in college football history, with the schools just 90 miles apart on I-35, and they are meeting for the 121st time.
The 2025 edition will feel similar to their 2010s shootouts, when both programs were peaking at the same time with their spread/tempo offenses. While most of the Big 12 has slowed down the offensive pace since then, these two programs remain some of the fastest-tempo offenses in America with Baylor No. 2 in seconds per play and TCU No. 8.
These offenses will light up the scoreboard — and the hometown Frog Horn — in an old Texas shootout (10 a.m. MDT, ESPN2).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Baylor 46.9 (43rd of 68 Power 4) | TCU 61.0 (17th)
2024 season: Baylor 59.0 (25th) | TCU 58.9 (26th)
2025 season: Baylor 57.6 (33rd) | TCU 60.3 (27th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected both Baylor and TCU as top-25 teams. I had Baylor finishing third in the Big 12 and TCU fifth, and it was the only magazine to have TCU ranked.
Both teams were selections for my best win totals of 2025 for the Pick Six PLUS subscribers: Baylor over 7.5 wins and TCU over 6.5 wins. Both teams are on pace at the halfway mark.
Baylor with the ball
Baylor offense: 36.3 points/game (27th of 136 FBS), 4.4 yards/carry (64th), 8.2 yards/pass (34th)
TCU defense: 24.7 points/game (70th of 136 FBS), 3.5 yards/carry (40th), 7.9 yards/pass (110th)
This game matches up the nation's two leaders in passing yards per game, with Baylor's Sawyer Robertson No. 1 at 343 yards per game. They are also No. 1 and No. 2 in touchdown passes, with Robertson cashing in on 19 throws.
Josh Cameron is the top threat on the outsides, and tight end Michael Trigg has been a matchup nightmare all season with the fourth most receptions among TE's.
Both teams are pass heavy, but Baylor's offense does have more balance, and they rank in the top 25 of both my opponent-adjusted passing and rushing metrics. They lost one of their star backs, Dawson Pendergrass, in preseason, but Bryson Washington has shouldered the load (93 yards/game, 5.5 per carry).
TCU with the ball
TCU offense: 35.3 points/game (34th of 136 FBS), 3.9 yards/carry (97th), 8.7 yards/pass (24th)
Baylor defense: 29.7 points/game (108th of 136 FBS), 4.3 yards/carry (90th), 7.2 yards/pass (75th)
Josh Hoover slightly edges out Robertson in yards per attempt and QB rating but has thrown more picks (six in six games), and the pick six against Kansas State was costly.
Still, Hoover is one the best quarterbacks in the Big 12; and given the injuries along the offensive line, this game plan will skew even more pass-heavy than usual.
Starting offensive tackle Ryan Hughes is out for the season, and his replacements couldn't help get the run game going last week (just 88 rushing yards). Now two more linemen, Coltin Deery and Cade Bennett, are listed on the injury report as questionable.
This will mean more passing, quick reads, horizontal throws to the sideline, and RPO.
Eric McAllister should be considered a Biletnikoff candidate after his big-play performances against SMU (eight catches for 254 and three TDs) and last week against Kansas State (four for 156). He leads America in yards per catch at an insane 26 yards per catch among receivers with 20+ receptions.
TCU faces off against a struggling Baylor defense that ranks 66th of 68 Power Four in my opponent-adjusted defense, and 65th against the pass. TCU's new-look line catches a break because Baylor's pass rush has been non-existent, and rates in the bottom 10 nationally generating a negative play on just 6% of snaps.
Game prediction
The teams are mirror images of each other so far this season. They both lost to Arizona State by the exact 27-24 score. They both led dramatic comeback wins over SMU in September. And they both dropped a second game against Power Four opponents in which they won the yardage battle (Baylor to Auburn, TCU to Kansas State).
They feature the top two passers, elite receivers, and struggling defenses. They are both top 10 pace teams, and the three other times top 10 fast tempo teams have met, all three went over the point totals.
Robertson and Hoover will get their yards. Which defense can step up to make some timely stops, turnovers, sacks, and negative plays? I'll take TCU's unit.
TCU 45 | Baylor 41
