SALT LAKE CITY — Utah returns to Rice-Eccles Stadium after its first bye week and will host the defending Big 12 champions Arizona State.
Both teams enter with 4-1 records and are jockeying for position behind Texas Tech to claim the No. 2 spot in the Big 12. Through September, I'd group together Arizona State, BYU, TCU, and Utah as the contenders to face Texas Tech in Dallas.
When these teams met last year, it was the game when Cam Rising finally came back to attempt to play through his lingering injuries, but it ended in a 27-19 Utah loss.
Ironically, a year later, it is Arizona State who is dealing with injury questions at quarterback. Dual-threat and first round draft pick projection Sam Leavitt has been excellent all season, is fresh off a bye week, and got all the starter-reps in practice.
But on Thursday night's injury report, Leavitt was listed as "doubtful," which would be a serious hit to their offense and team overall.
Utah looks for revenge and a signature, ranked win Saturday night in Salt Lake City (8:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN)
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Utah 55.4 (23rd of 68 Power 4) | Arizona State 44.0 (52nd)
2024 season: Utah 44.9 (48th) | Arizona State 66.5 (14th)
2025 season: Utah 64.7 (18th) | Arizona State 64.2 (21st)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish fourth in a wide-open Big 12 race. After their blowout win over UCLA, Utah rose up to No. 14 in 2025 Game Grader, but they now check in at No. 18 after the 34-10 loss to Texas Tech and 48-14 bounce-back win at West Virginia.
In 2024, Arizona State was picked last by Big 12 media before shocking the college football world with a surprise Big 12 title and playoff appearance. I selected them to repeat as champions this year, due to high amounts of returning production on both sides of the ball, and their combo of Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson.
They lost a last-second game to Mississippi State, but are perfect in Big 12 play with two close wins over TCU and Baylor.
Utah with the ball
Utah offense: 39 points/game (18th of 136 FBS teams), 5.4 yards/carry (19th), 7.0 yards/pass (89th)
Arizona State defense: 21.2 points/game (50th), 2.6 yards/carry (7th), 6.6 yards/pass (49th)
As I wrote in the Utah bye week article, this has been one of the most improved offenses in America from 2024 to 2025. Last year, the quarterback room suffered countless injuries and the pass game was broken.
The new-look offense with coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier has played nearly perfect football, aside from the Texas Tech game.
Dampier is one of just seven Power Four dual-threat quarterbacks with 1,000+ yards passing and 250+ yards rushing. Utah leads the Big 12 in rushing, and the offensive line has been strong in both the run game (No. 14 OL run push) and in pass protection (No. 6).
The last thing to unlock for this offense is long-yardage, vertical passing. They currently rank 102th in explosive passing, and against Texas Tech they only hit one long pass — and even that was called back by a penalty.
The Utah offensive line against the Arizona State front is the "strength vs. strength" of the game, as ASU ranks in the top 10 of my opponent-adjusted defense metric. They are also in the top 10 of all rushing defense stats and have been super-aggressive getting to the backfield with a high 13% negative play rate (No. 9 nationally).
Arizona State with the ball
Arizona State offense: 29.2 points/game (67th of 136), 5.2 yards/carry (29th), 6.6 yards/pass (98th)
Utah defense: 14.6 points/game (16th), 4.0 yards/carry (74th), 6.5 yards/pass (44th)
Arizona State's offense has been a disappointment compared to preseason expectations. With Leavitt, Tyson, and the offensive line back, they were expected to again feature a top-25 offense but have fallen short of that mark so far.
Arizona State is below-average in scoring, yards per play, QB rating, and pass protection.
They rely heavily on Leavitt's mobility and scrambles on pass plays. While backup Jeff Sims is mobile, very few quarterbacks can emulate Leavitt's elusiveness in pocket. Sims is as veteran of a backup as possible, having started games at Georgia Tech and Nebraska over his six-year college career, but apparently did not receive any starter reps the past two weeks of practice.
The loss of Leavitt — assuming the injury report is reliable — makes Arizona State even more one-dimensional, and they will need to generate a consistent run push. That plays right into Utah's strength as a tough front seven.
Game prediction
This will be the 92nd straight sell-out at Rice-Eccles Stadium. I've viewed this as one of the best homefield advantages in college football, so I did some digging for some tangible data.
Over Kyle Whittingham's tenure (2005-25) Utah is third best at home with a 67-51-4 (.568) against-the-spread record. They are also third best over the sell-out streak (2010-25) at 53-39-2 (.576) against-the-spread. In terms of straight-up record, Utah is a Big 12-best 30-7 since 2019.
This game features two strong defenses, but one offense that is likely without their MVP. My Game Grader projected a 4-point Utah win at full strength, but now without Leavitt, that margin increases to a touchdown-plus.
Utah 24 | Arizona State 17
