SALT LAKE CITY — It will feel like a 90's Saturday night in Tallahassee as Florida State hosts bitter rival Miami in a ranked vs. ranked matchup for the first time in a decade.
From 1981-2006, the teams met in ranked games 23 times in 26 years, 13 of those were top 10 vs. top 10, and in incredible seven of them were top five vs. top five.
That run produced seven combined national champions, and the title race often hinged on this outcome. In the 20 years since, they have only met three times as ranked teams, and just one top 10 vs. top 10 during Florida State's 2013 BCS title run.
Even with Florida State's upset loss at Virginia Friday night, this game has high stakes with the ACC's likely two best facing off. Doak Campbell will be electric Saturday night in the national spotlight (5:30 p.m. MDT, ABC).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Miami 56.5 (22nd of 68 Power 4) | Florida State 54.2 (26th)
2024 season: Miami 74.8 (7th) | Florida State 20.6 (67th)
2025 season: Miami 80.7 (2nd) | Florida State 64.8 (20th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Miami as a playoff team, and they have not disappointed. They beat preseason top 10 Notre Dame in the opener, blew out a then-ranked USF team 49-12, and then pulled away from Florida 26-7.
Those latter two are both among the highest individual Game Grades so far this season, and Miami checks in at No. 2 overall.
Florida State shocked the country with their season-opening win over preseason top 10 Alabama, a 31-17 victory that fueled the best offensive start to the 2025 season. FSU blew out their non-AQ opponents Kent State and East Texas A&M by a combined 143-13 (+1,100 yardage) before their upset loss at Virginia
last week.
Florida State is currently No. 20 overall in 2025 Game Grader.
Miami with the ball
Miami offense: 36.8 points/game (31st of 136 FBS), 4.8 yards/carry (52nd), 8.6 yards/pass (30th)
Florida State defense: 19 points/game (42nd of 136 FBS), 3.2 yards/carry (29th), 6.2 yards/pass (37th)
Mario Cristobal built one of the top offensive lines in the country and continues to reload each season. Their run game has been strong behind the duo of Mark Fletcher and Marty Brown, and after seeing Virginia rush for 200+ on this FSU front, this becomes the key spot of this matchup.
Look for Miami to control the tempo of the game with their rushing attack.
Carson Beck is not Cam Ward, and you won't find those video-game, highlight-reel plays like Ward provided, but Beck has been very efficient and makes every throw they need.
Miami enters with a top 25 passing offense in my opponent-adjusted numbers, which takes into account that they have faced last year's No. 1 pass defense Notre Dame and a solid Florida unit.
Florida State's defense is the biggest unknown of the four units in this game. Against Alabama they were attacking behind the line of scrimmage and held the Tide to just 17 points. But then last week they could not stop, or even slow, Virginia in the 46-38 loss.
Florida State with the ball
Florida State offense: 53 points/game (1st of 136 FBS), 6.7 yards/carry (3rd), 11.6 yards/pass (3rd)
Miami defense: 11.5 points/game (9th of 136 FBS), 2.6 yards/carry (12th), 6.0 yards/pass (29th)
Mike Norvell's offensive coordinator hire Gus Malzahn was the perfect fit for his transfer quarterback Thomas Castellanos. So far, Castellanos has backed up his offseason bravado and has Florida State currently atop the national leaderboard in points per game, total offense (600 yards per game), and explosiveness.
The only stat category that Florida State is not elite so far is their pass protection sack rate (44th nationally), and that lines up against possibly the best pass rush in America.
After rotating injury seasons, finally both Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain are healthy together and are wreaking havoc on opposing lines. They are in the national top 20 in both negative play rate and third down conversions.
Cristobal's hire on defense has been equally as impactful as Norvell's offensive move. Corey Hetherman came from Minnesota and instantly changed the culture on the Miami defense. They bolstered the secondary with an incredible five four-star transfers, and this rebuild has turned Miami into national title contenders.
Game prediction
Although the rivalry has not had as much national impact the past 20 years, one thing has stayed constant: tight, one-score games. Since 2000, 18 of the 25 Miami-Florida State games have ended within one score.
This one should follow that trend.
It will be fascinating seeing the nation's top offense go against an aggressive Miami defensive line. If that strength vs. strength is considered a draw, the other matchup tilts Miami's way. After seeing the Florida State's defensive breakdowns, look for a fresh Miami offense off the bye to control the game.
Miami 30 | Florida State 23
