Pick Six Previews: Utah to bounce back in road test against injury-riddled West Virginia


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SALT LAKE CITY — In a matchup of the Big 12's top-ranked teams, Utah hosted Texas Tech and fought to a 13-10 score in the fourth quarter before Tech scored three touchdowns.

The 34-10 loss dropped Utah to 3-1 (0-1 Big 12) and takes away some of their margin of error going forward in a wide-open Big 12 race.

The first half was all defense, as the teams combined to force five turnovers. Devon Dampier led Utah on a long touchdown drive at the start of the fourth quarter to get it to 13-10, but then Texas Tech backup quarterback, Will Hammond, gave his star receivers the opportunity to win one-on-one battles, and they won them consistently.

Utah hits the road this week in search of their first league win, as they head to Morgantown, West Virginia, to face the 2-2 West Virginia Mountaineers (1:30 p.m. MDT, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Utah 55.4 (23rd of 68 Power 4) | West Virginia 44.1 (50th)
2024 season: Utah 44.9 (48th) | West Virginia 39.9 (54th)
2025 season: Utah 61.7 (26th) | West Virginia 38.6 (61st)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish fourth in a wide-open Big 12 race. After its blowout win over UCLA, Utah rose up to No. 14 in 2025 Game Grader, but the 34-10 loss to Texas Tech dropped them to No. 26, just off their original preseason projection of No. 22.

West Virginia is one of two Big 12 programs going through a coaching change transition season, with former head coach Rich Rodriguez returning.

I projected West Virginia to place 14th in the 16-team league, and so far they are 2-2 with a loss to non-AQ Ohio, a close overtime win over rival Pittsburgh, and a blowout loss to Kansas last week. They are currently ranked in the bottom 10 of 2025 Game Grader.

Utah with the ball

Utah offense: 36.8 points/game (39th of 136 FBS teams), 5.5 yards/carry (27th), 6.4 yards/pass (105th)
West Virginia defense: 21.3 points/game (60th), 3.3 yards/carry (38th), 6.5 yards/pass (55th)

Utah's new-look offense was perfect through the nonconference games but ran into a brick wall Saturday against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders forced four turnovers, and unfortunately Utah's lone explosive pass play was called back due to penalty.

Last week, I wrote that it was strength-on-strength, with Utah's offensive line going against Texas Tech's transfer-heavy defensive front.

That matchup was dominated by Tech, and Kyle Whittingham was shocked in the postgame press conference, saying: "If you'd had told me we'd lose the lines of scrimmage to Texas Tech, I would not have believed you in a million years, but we did."

Utah was not able to get a consistent run push with just 3 yards per carry, and their nation-best third-down conversions were just 4-of-14.

That will be the toughest defense Utah faces all season. Now they line up against a West Virginia unit that just allowed 41 points and 242 rushing yards to Kansas. West Virginia entered the game as the No. 4 defense in sacks, but did not register a single one against Kansas.

Dampier can match, and even exceed, the mobility and elusiveness of Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels, so look for similar success in pass protection and sack avoidance. Utah has the talent advantage here.

West Virginia with the ball

West Virginia offense: 24 points/game (92nd of 136), 4.6 yards/carry (67th), 7.1 yards/pass (83rd)
Utah defense: 14.8 points/game (25th), 3.5 yards/carry (52nd), 6.5 yards/pass (55th)

Utah's defense held Texas Tech's No. 1-ranked offense in check for three-plus quarters before a fourth-quarter breakdown. Tech's receivers consistently won their one-on-one battles and they cashed in on three touchdowns in the fourth.

Morgan Scalley's unit is still one of the best in the league. They face off against a below-average offense, and a team that is going through a tragic injury run.

Starting quarterback Nicco Marchiol is questionable, but they could also be without their top three running backs, two of the top four receivers, tight end, and three starting offensive linemen. Rodriguez calls it his worst injury run of his career.

Jaylen Henderson filled in for Marchiol and had one long run and then another for a touchdown. Although he brings some mobility to the offense, Utah will simply overpower this backup-filled offense.

Game prediction

A few intangibles are going against Utah. They are fresh off a physical, first loss to Texas Tech, and they must travel cross-country, in which Power Four teams have struggled (just 19-34 against the spread from 2024-25).

However, those headwinds are neutralized by West Virginia's extreme injury run on offense, not to mention Utah's talent advantage all over the field. The Utes will bounce back with their first Big 12 win of 2025.

Utah 28 | West Virginia 13

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Brett Ciancia, Pick Six PreviewsBrett Ciancia
Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.

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