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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah was dealt one of the toughest season-opening matchups of 2022: a trip into The Swamp, which holds the nation's longest home opener win streak (33 straight).
All week, the national media was hyper-focused on how Utah would be affected by the Florida heat and humidity, but a rainstorm before kickoff diluted those extremes. Instead, the game was decided within the red zone.
Florida was a perfect 3-for-3 on red zone trips as dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson extended plays and burned the Utes defense for three rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Utah's offense got inside the 6-yard line twice but left with 0 points.
An early third quarter drive got Utah all the way to the goal line, but they failed to convert; and a fourth-down gamble came up short. Then down by 3 points in the final seconds — and within range for a tying field goal the distance of a normal extra point — quarterback Cam Rising was picked off by Amari Burney in the end zone to end a roller-coaster opening game.
Time will tell how strong Florida ends up being, but regardless, a 3-point road loss in one of the nation's toughest environments is not a College Football Playoff eliminator. For comparison, Oregon's 46-point blowout loss to Georgia is a knock-out punch, as no team has made the four-team bracket after taking such a decisive loss.
While not an "eliminator," the loss to Florida does take away Utah's margin of error, and the Utes must navigate the nine-game Pac-12 regular season, and the conference title, perfectly with no mulligan. Since the Pac-12 expanded in 2011, no team has gone a perfect 9-0 in conference play.
Before they take on that challenge, the Utes host Southern Utah.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-Year Average 2019-2021: Utah 68.9 (7th) | Southern Utah (N/A)
2021 Season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | Southern Utah (N/A)
2022 Season: Utah 55.5 (25th) | Southern Utah (N/A)
With just a one-game sample size, the 2022 Game Grader still has Utah in the Top 25 after a 3-point loss against a Top 15 opponent. Yardage and turnovers were virtually even. As a member of the FCS, Southern Utah is not graded here.
Southern Utah with the ball
The Thunderbirds went 1-10 last year and are now led by new head coach DeLane Fitzgerald, who was tasked with a complete roster overhaul.
The 2021 starting quarterback, Justin Miller, beat out Western Kentucky transfer Grady Robison in a spring position battle, then proceeded to throw for 364 yards in SUU's 44-13 opening win over St. Thomas. Miller's performance earned him WAC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
Fitzgerald reshaped the receiver and running back rooms via the transfer portal, and the offensive line is inexperienced with just one full-time starter back from the 2021 front.
Utah's defense has the clear advantage against this FCS offense.
With that said, I am interested to see how Utah's defense bounces back from the loss Saturday. Head coach Kyle Whittingham noted that a usual Utes defense misses 8-10 tackles per game, but that number tripled with 27 missed tackles against Florida.
Sloppy fundamentals were worsened by Utah's failure to disrupt plays behind the line of scrimmage. The Utes registered just two tackles for loss (second fewest in the nation) and failed to sack Richardson a single time. This reminds me of Utah's season-opening struggles against the BYU offensive line last year — hopefully the 2022 defense ends up following a similar progression after the early struggles.
Utah with the ball
Like SUU's offense, the defense had a complete starting lineup transition with just two 2021 starters back this year. Last week, St. Thomas had success moving the ball on the first few drives before the Thunderbirds' defense settled in.
Aside from the problems at the goal line, Utah's offense was as strong as I expected. The line pushed for an average of 5.9 yards per carry — even higher than last season's Power Five best 5.6 number. Rising was efficient with the ball (23-of-33 passing) and added 91 rushing yards on pulls and scrambles.
Tight end Brant Kuithe posted 104 receiving yardsa and showed why he earned preseason All-America honors from Pick Six Previews. And workhorse running back Tavion Thomas rushed for 115 yards and a score as an encore to his Power Five best 21 touchdowns last season.
This matchup is a decisive advantage for Utah and will provide live game reps for younger players in the rotation.
Game prediction
Southern Utah has lost 12 straight against FBS opponents, while Utah has won eight straight home games and 26 straight home nonconference games. Look for all three streaks to continue and for Utah to overpower their in-state FCS opponent.
Utah 52 | Southern Utah 13
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Brett Ciancia
