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SALT LAKE CITY (AP) -- A state economist forecasts that Utah will lose up to 19,000 jobs next year and reach an unemployment rate of up to 5.5 percent in what would be one of its worst economic downturns in more than half a century.
"That would be the worst economic environment we've had since 1954. We've only had four times since 1950 where there's fewer jobs in one year than there was the previous year," Mark Knold, chief economist for the Department of Workforce Services, said in an audio podcast released with the state's October employment report on Tuesday.
The report said Utah lost 2,200 jobs in October compared with the same month last year. That's a decline of .2 percent.
It is the first time in 2008 Utah has experienced negative job growth.
Utah's economy is no longer hurting just because of a slowdown in the housing and construction industries, Knold said. The slump has now expanded to manufacturing, financial activities, and professional and business services. "It's very, very difficult to see a strong rebound of any kind," Knold said. "It does seem to be the trend of the economy ... for further downward movement before we find (the) bottom and turn it around."
Still, the state's unemployment rate remained steady in October at 3.5 percent, the same as in September. Last October, the state's rate was 2.8 percent.
However, Knold said Utah's unemployment rate is likely to rise. "We do expect that to start speeding up in terms of its climbing," Knold said. "By the time we kind of finish out 2009, I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah's unemployment rate up to 5.5 percent."
Nationally, the unemployment rate is 6.5 percent.
Knold said Utah likely won't surpass the national rate, but it's not isolated from the national economy. "Having this ... almost like an immunity to what's going on -- no, we're not going to be seeing that as we move forward," he said. "We shine brightly in the good economic environments ... but this one's too big. We're going to have an economy that's being dragged down by it all."
Knold said the only bright spots in Utah's economy are in the education and health care sectors. "You just can't ignore it no matter what the economy is like. You've got to educate the kids. Health care is the same thing," he said.
Lisa Roskelley, Gov. Jon Huntsman's spokeswoman, said the "employment contraction situation" is severe, but she credited economic development efforts with tempering the problem. "Also, while it is likely to increase over time, our low unemployment rate suggests that the remarkable expansion we've experienced over the past several years has positioned us well to handle the downturn," Roskelley wrote in an e-mail to The Associated Press. "The Governor's Office of Economic Development continues to work with many companies -- both within the state and outside -- on expansion and recruitment opportunities within the state."
Knold's report comes out a day after the Utah Tax Commission said state revenues over the past four months are down significantly over the same period last year, creating the possibility that budget cuts might be necessary when the Legislature meets in January.
The Legislature met in a special session in September to trim $272 million from this year's state budget after state economists revised their economic forecast for this year, but the revenue report shows the state is on pace to take in even less money than economists forecast.
A revised budget forecast for this year and a new one for the upcoming year will be released in December.
It's unclear how the slumping economy will affect the plans of Huntsman, who has said that among his budget priorities is a goal to bring Utah's teacher salaries up to the national average.
In each of Huntsman's first four years in office Utah's economy was strong. He was able to cut taxes by hundreds of millions of dollars and give record increases for education spending -- though Utah still has the nation's largest class sizes and spends less per student than any other state.
(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
