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SALT LAKE CITY — As 4th Congressional District candidates Doug Owens and Mia Love prepare to debate Tuesday, a new independent poll differs from the candidates' internal numbers released last week.
UtahPolicy.com found Love with a 49 percent to 40 percent lead over Owens with three weeks to go until Election Day. Three third-party candidates picked up 1 percent each, while 9 percent are undecided, according to the poll released Monday.
Dan Jones & Associates conducted the survey of 400 likely voters Oct. 7-9. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Owens isn't as far behind Love in the UtahPolicy.com poll as he is in Love's internal poll. But he's not as close as his own numbers indicate.
The two candidates are scheduled to square off in an hourlong debate Tuesday at the University of Utah. The state's major broadcast outlets, including KSL-TV and KSL Newsradio, will carry the event live at 6 p.m.
Owens, a Democrat, came out swinging in the first head-to-head meeting with Love, a Republican, in May. He's continued to apply pressure with recent television ads going after Love's past statements on education.
Other than a campaign rally, Love spent much of last week getting ready for the debate. Her ads focus on "attacking problems, not people."
Bryan Schott, UtahPolicy.com managing editor, said Owens' ads have clearly boosted his name recognition. He has gained eight points in the latest poll, while Love has gained five. Owens also is doing better than Love with people who identify themselves as independent voters.
Personally, I always thought the race would tighten. There is a path for Owens to win, according to our numbers.
–Bryan Schott, UtahPolicy.com managing editor
"Personally, I always thought the race would tighten," Schott said. "There is a path for Owens to win, according to our numbers."
Owens' favorability rating has risen and so has Love's since the last UtahPolicy.com poll in August. But her 41 percent unfavorability rating nearly doubles his 23 percent. Still, 16 percent of those polled have never heard of Owens.
Owens' campaign said the poll confirms that he's gaining ground.
"Our message of putting people before politics to help hardworking Utah families resonates with voters. They want someone who will be a strong, independent voice for them in Washington," it said in a statement.
Love campaign manager Dave Hansen said the polls show Love ahead and "that's the most important thing," he said.
Hansen said the campaign is also comfortable with its own polling. "We feel she's in a good position to win this race," he said.
Last week, Love and Owens released conflicting internal poll numbers.
Love's poll showed her well ahead in the race, with 47 percent to 28 percent for Owens. But Owens' poll had him at 44 percent — just 3 points behind Love, who also had 47 percent in his poll.
