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SALT LAKE CITY — U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) thinks November's Senatorial election will be a close one.
"50-50. I think it's going to be a very close, competitive election," he said on CNN's State of the Union last week.
If the election plays out as McConnell expects it to, a handful of tight races will decide which party will hold the Senate majority. If most of those races swing the Republicans' way it would mean a massive shift in legislative power that could put Utah's Sen. Orrin Hatch in a position to lead a repeal of Obamacare.
The Senate Finance Committee's ranking Republican, Hatch, 78, is expected to retain his seat and is poised to chair the committee if Republicans regain the majority. To do so, they would need to win four seats if Mitt Romney wins the presidency and five if President Barack Obama retains it.
As Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, I will live by a simple motto — entitlement reform is health reform, and I will use every opportunity to reform these broken programs.
–Sen. Orrin Hatch
As chairman Hatch would wield extensive power over the Finance Committee, which oversees health care. He has already promised to use his position to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
“As Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, I will live by a simple motto — entitlement reform is health reform, and I will use every opportunity to reform these broken programs," he told the American Enterprise Institute last week.
With that kind of power at stake, November 6 could be a nail-biter for both Democrats and Republicans. Whichever party wins will have a majority — but not by much, McConnell said.
"I think at the end of the day we’re going to have a very narrow Senate, one way or the other," he said.
Here are some of the most critical Senate races for both parties, in no particular order:
Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown, who roared into office in 2010 after Ted Kennedy's death created a Senate vacancy, is deadlocked in a political struggle with Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren. Warren has a heavy war chest and her party's heavyweights at her back. The two have been virtually tied in the polls for months in a critical race for the GOP.
Virginia Two former governors are going head-to- head for the open seat left by retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D). Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine are in a dead heat in a race that was billed as a close one before the candidates officially entered it. It's also a race that many believe will be influenced by the presidential election.
#poll
North Dakota Though Republican Rep. Rick Berg was expected to win North Dakota's open seat, he is currently running a close race with Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp. Sen. Kent Conrad, whose retirement will create the vacancy, believes Heitkamp is seeing success because the state's thriving economy has taken the edge off the strong anti-Obama sentiment there.
Nevada Democrats were looking to Shelley Berkley to win a crucial contest with incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R). But ethics accusations, including last week's announcement of an ethics probe, continue to overshadow Berkley's campaign and could make the difference in a hotly contested race that many believe Democrats need to win to maintain control of the Senate.
Montana The GOP is gunning for a Senate seat in Montana, where incumbent Jon Tester won by a single point in 2006. Republican candidate Rep. Danny Rehberg and outside PACs have poured millions of dollars into the campaign in an attempt to level the playing field with Tester. The race was within the margin of error in the latest Rasmussen poll.
Justin Ritter is a public awareness adviser and freelance journalist living in Houston, Texas. He has reported on municipal and statewide elections and contributed to KBYU-TV's 2010 Election Special Report.
