SALT LAKE CITY - It has been said there are really only three conferences in football: the AFC, the NFC, and the SEC. That might be true, but the SEC didn’t have three teams in the top six to end the regular season. That honor belongs to the Pac-12.

I know, I know, the SEC has the top two teams instead which is definitely preferable, but the Pac-12 is climbing the ladder. There’s no question the SEC is the best conference in football, but between the Big Twelve and the Pac-12 the gap is closing.

Utah Football Forecast Part 1

Oblivious resilience helped Utes save 2011 season, bowl game

Trevor Amicone takes a step back and looks at the Utes' 2011 season through the eyes of Saturday's Sun Bowl.

Utah Football Forecast Part 2

Position-by-position season grades

In part two of our five-part Utah Football Forecast series, Trevor Amicone grades the Utes, position-by-position.

Utah Football Forecast Part 3

2011 team awards

Who was the Utes' 2011 offensive MVP? Alright, you probably already know that, but what about the team's defensive MVP and unsung hero? What was the most memorable moment of 2011? Find out in the third installment of KSL's Utah Football Forecast.

The Big Twelve is definitely deeper than the Pac-12, but the top three teams from the Pac-12 are as good as any conference’s top three, including the SEC’s (Oregon, USC, Stanford vs. LSU, Alabama, Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan).

That was all this year though. What does the Pac-12 look like going forward? What does each team’s recruiting look like? Who returns the most starters? Who will play in the conference title game in 2012? And, most importantly, for our purposes, where does Utah fit in 2012?

We’ll start our look into the Pac-2012 crystal ball by looking briefly at each team’s future, in alphabetical order.

Arizona: The Wildcats hired Rich Rodriguez as their new head coach going into 2012, but it may take a season or two for Arizona to get Rodriguez’s system in place and running smoothly.

The Wildcats do, however, have the personnel to run Rodriguez’s spread offense effectively more quickly than did Michigan. Arizona was top heavy in 2011. All three quarterbacks listed on the Wildcats’ depth chart at the start of the season were seniors.

Virtually every single one of its offensive playmakers will be gone in 2012. The offensive line is young, though, which is one reason it struggled so badly in 2011. All of Arizona’s offensive line will be back as will the interior defensive line. Offensively, Arizona will return six starters. Defensively, they will return five. Do not expect Arizona to be a factor in the Pac-12 South in 2012.

Arizona State: Quarterback Brock Osweiler will be back as a senior, which is enough to make the Sun Devils a contender in the south division. Key playmakers like running back Cameron Marshall and receiver Jamal Miles will be back as well, but others like receiver Aaron Pflugrad will be gone.

New coach Todd Graham knows what he’s doing offensively and should be able to make an immediate impact. Ute fans who are not worried about Graham’s potential as a head coach after watching him at Pittsburgh should think twice. Pitt didn’t have the personnel to run Graham’s high-octane offense; Arizona State does.

The Sun Devils return six offensive starters and six on defense. That does not include junior linebacker Vontaze Burfict who will probably enter the NFL draft. This is a talented team and Graham has walked into a program that is a sleeping giant. If he pushes the right buttons, this team is a contender in the Pac-12 South. Remember, ASU beat USC by 20 this season.

California: This is a team that could be a sleeper in the north division next season. The Golden Bears have their major playmakers coming back on offense. The defense was one of the best in the conference, but they will be losing a lot of seniors that will have to be replaced if they are indeed going to be the sleeper. I think they could be.Quarterback Zach Maynard comes back as do running back Isi Sofele and star receiver Keenan Allen. The offense will return six starters and the defense will return five. Keep an eye on the Golden Bears, they may surprise in 2012.

Colorado: The biggest loss for the Buffaloes will be quarterback Tyler Hansen who was really the only player to bring any sort of dynamic ability to the Colorado offense. The Buffs also lose running back Rodney Stewart and receiver Toney Clemons, their other two playmakers.

I believe head coach Jon Embree has this team going in the right direction, but the road is long and uphill. Returning only four starters on offense and six on defense, Colorado will probably not be any better than they were in 2011.

Oregon: The Ducks should be the favorites to win the north again, and possibly the conference championship. This team is loaded. It won’t matter if junior running back LaMichael James foregoes his senior season to enter the NFL Draft, the Ducks’ depth is as good as anyone in the nation, at every position.All you need to do is look at this year’s small spree of injuries that beset the Ducks. The offense didn’t skip a beat. The Ducks will always be dangerous as long as Chip Kelly is the head coach. Why? Because they have the terrifying combination that very rarely comes around in college football. They have boundless talent and an offensive scheme that doesn’t need it.

Although reports have indicated James will enter the draft, James has yet to announce his decision. If he stays at Oregon, the Ducks will return seven offensive starters. On defense, Oregon will return five starters in 2012. Expect them to be as strong as they were in 2011.

Oregon State: The Beavers return a lot of starters, but with this team, that might not be a good thing. Oregon State’s talent level has steadily dropped in recent years and last year, it was not up to snuff for the Pac-12.

Freshman quarterback Sean Mannion will be back and so will most of his weapons. The offensive line, however, will lose three of its five starters so pass protection will once again be an issue for the Beavers.

Oregon State returns eight offensive starters and eight defensive starters so they will be improved, but not enough to compete in the tough north division. Expect Oregon State’s offense to be a little bit better in 2012, maybe good enough to get the Beavers to a bowl game, but probably not.

Stanford: I know, they are losing the greatest quarterback to ever breathe, but if you watched any Stanford football in 2011, you know that the Cardinal really didn’t need a quarterback. Stanford’s strength is the power run game and the utilization of the tight end.Along those lines, running back Stepfan Taylor will likely be back for his junior season and so will four of his five offensive linemen. Not that it would matter, the Cardinal use eight O-linemen most of the time anyway. The big loss will be tight end Coby Fleener, but the depth at tight end is solid. The Cardinal lose both their top receivers but they were two of the slowest, least threatening receivers in the conference.

Stanford will drop off a bit, but not much. The Cardinal will return six offensive starters and six defensive starters. Expect this team to compete with Oregon in the north, but they’ll likely trip up against a team like Cal or Washington and get beat by the Ducks again.

UCLA: The Bruins hired Mora the same after firing Rick Neuheisel (pun intended), bringing in Jim Mora Jr. We saw the talent UCLA has in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Not much there. Most of the offensive playmakers will be back in 2012 for the Bruins, but they lose a big chunk of what was already a terrible offensive line.

The Bruins will return seven starters on an offense that scored fewer points per game than Utah. On defense, they will return seven starters. Don’t expect much out of UCLA this year, again.

USC: In 2011 we had Notre Dame and Florida State as teams that were hyped as possible national title contenders. This year, USC will get that hype, only they will deserve it. In the Trojans’ first year off postseason probation, they have the talent to win the conference and they probably should.We all know senior-to-be quarterback Matt Barkley is coming back to run the offense. Receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee will both be back as Barkley’s biggest weapons. This was a team that finished the regular season ranked fifth in the country in the AP poll, and they were frighteningly young.

The Trojans will return eight starters on offense (it would be nine if junior offensive lineman Matt Kalil wasn’t turning pro). They are also returning eight starters on defense. Scary. Expect the Trojans to compete for the conference championship AND the national championship.

Utah: All the key playmakers will be coming back in 2012 and a few others will be getting healthy. With junior quarterback Jordan Wynn expected to be healthy, the Ute pass offense should be much more potent (less horrendous?) than it was in 2011.

Junior running back John White IV will be back to try to top his record-breaking 2011 season, but he’ll have a new running mate in the backfield with him. Junior College transfer Kelvin York is expected to be as good, if not better, than White. That may not be right away but York will be a force in the Ute backfield in 2012.

The quarterback job is a healthy Wynn’s to win and all the Ute receiving threats (including the tight ends like Dallin Rogers, Kendrick Moeai and Jake Murphy) will be at his disposal in 2012. The Utes will return eight starters on offense and seven (eight if you count Blechen as a linebacker which is probably where he’ll be in 2012 and move Keith McGill back to his starting position at safety) on defense. Expect the Utes to compete with USC in the south.

Washington: The Huskies’ potent offense will lose some key cogs in 2012, including their Pac-12 first-team running back Chris Polk. That will be the major hit, but they are also losing their two biggest downfield receiving threats.Sophomore quarterback Keith Price will be back and should be solid again, but without Polk, the offense may struggle. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has done an amazing job turning the Washington program around but he may have hit a temporary plateau.

Returning seven starters on offense and seven on quite possibly the worst defense in the Pac-12, Washington might be able to improve to 8-4 (might), but I’ll bet they are in the 6-6/7-5 range again in 2012. However, this is a team that should be peaking in 2013.

Washington State: The Cougars made one of the best hires in college football in 2011. New head coach Mike Leach is a great fit for Pullman and he should make a big difference in the long haul, but not right away. Leach will have his pick of quarterbacks. The Cougars have three possible starters at quarterback who could be solid in 2012. Yeah, you heard that right.

The Cougar offense should be a force to be reckoned with, though, in the 2012. The offense was good in 2011 and Leach should bring some order to it that will make it even more potent. Don’t sleep on Washington State whose stats outperformed their record in 2011. That almost always indicates a sleeper.

The Cougars do, however, lose a lot at the receiver position, so that may hinder immediate success. The other warning signs: the Cougars lose all of their offensive lineman. Washington State only returns three starters on offense and four on defense. It might be a long season again in Pullman, but Leach will get them on the right track.

Recruiting

Now that we’ve looked briefly at all the teams, let’s look at recruiting and where the Utes fit in in the Pac-12.

I said in part two of this series that the Utes recruiting trends were going upward and that they were getting more Pac-12 caliber athletes. Don’t believe me? Rivals.com recruiting expert Dan Sorenson is projecting the Utes to potentially finish with the fourth or fifth best recruiting class in the Pac-12 this offseason.

We’ll talk more in depth about who is actually in the Utes’ 2012 recruiting class in part five of our series on Friday, but fourth behind Oregon, Stanford and USC (or fifth behind those three plus probably Cal) means a pretty bright future for the Utes.

Also, in part five of our series, we’ll talk about the importance of the Utes’ hire at offensive coordinator, but that cannot be overstated.

Oregon looks to be bringing in the best class in 2012, highlighted by defensive linemen Alex Balducci and DeForest Buckner. After the Rose Bowl, is it any wonder that the Ducks are focusing their 2012 recruiting energies on the defensive side of the ball?

Stanford is getting the slight edge over USC right now. The Cardinal are also focused on defense, with their class headlined by defensive back Alex Carter and linebacker Noor Davis. As always, though, Stanford also went heavy on the O-line, (no pun intended).

USC is right behind the Cardinal mostly because of all the scholarship restraints. The Trojans’ biggest get was offensive lineman Jordan Simmons. He should fit in nicely in 2012 with an already young but extremely talented SC O-line.

Cal has a solid class and so does UCLA. Oregon State is hanging around the middle of the pack, and so are the Utes right now, but it looks like Utah is in the mix on a handful of kids who could push them to the fringe of that three-team top tier.

Ridiculously Early 2012 Pac-12 Power Rankings

To conclude, I’ll leave you with what I’m calling my Ridiculously Early 2012 Pac-12 Power Rankings. With so many things capable of changing between now and August 30 when the Utes kick off the season against Northern Colorado, these are purely speculative, but they are also fun. As always, I don’t intend to end all arguments with my top ten, only to begin them…

1. USC — They are returning the most starters and they were probably the best team in the conference this year. Too bad they cheated.
2. Oregon — They will probably meet the Trojans in the conference title game in 2012 with the winner possibly playing for the national title.
3. Stanford — The Cardinal will drop off a bit, but the main pieces within their scheme will be in place.
4. Utah — The Utes return all of their playmakers offensively and they add one or two, most importantly, bringing back Jordan Wynn. If he stays healthy, there’s conference title game potential.
5. California — The Golden Bears bring back all their important pieces on offense, but they lose a good portion of their defense, which is why they are lower than Utah even after shellacking the Utes in ’11.
6. Arizona State — This team is so hard to read, but they are talented and should be able to improve with Graham at the helm. But it may take more than a year to get the undisciplined Erickson disciples out of Tempe. There will probably be push back in year one for Graham, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see the Sun Devils in the Pac-12 title game. The Sun Devils are a wildcard in 2012.
7. Washington — It will take a year, maybe two to improve the defense the way new defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox undoubtedly will. If he does by 2013, look out!
8. UCLA — Mora will bring a different voice to the Bruins, but it will take a while to get through to the majority of the team.
9. Oregon State — This will probably be Mike Riley’s last year in Corvallis. He deserved a pass on 2011, but 2012 will be more of a holding cell (purgatory, if you will) for Riley, only with a bad ending.
10. Arizona — I like the Rodriguez hire, but losing Foles and the other major offensive weapons will result in another bad year in Tucson.
11. Washington State — Leach will have an uphill battle after losing so many starters, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset pulled off late in the season by the Cougars, maybe Washington on Nov. 23, Utah on Nov. 3 or UCLA on Nov. 17.
12. Colorado — Cellar dwellers again, the Buffaloes are simply losing too many players to make any real progress in 2012. I like Embree and he should get a little leeway because the previous recruiting was organized so poorly, but this year might be even uglier than last year.

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