Why Romney will be the GOP nominee in 2012

SALT LAKE CITY -- Following the Las Vegas Republican debate a few weeks ago, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney nearly appeared to solidify the Party's front-runner status, with many political analysts giving the nomination to Romney. However, Romney's campaign has said the race is still too early to make that kind of assumption.

And with the surprising rise of businessman Herman Cain over the last month, many predict the nomination is still up for grabs. Nevertheless, with two months to go before voters in Iowa cast the first votes in their statewide caucuses on Jan. 3, Romney remains the candidate with the most probable chance of securing the eventual nomination, however satisfied the conservative base may be.

Although there is still time for lower-polling candidates to make a surge to the top, recent trends -- save a scandal from the Romney campaign -- predict Romney winning the GOP presidential race. The following is a few reasons why Romney will most likely be the GOP nominee, facing off against President Barack Obama next fall.

General Election Platform:

Mitt Romney is exactly where he wants to be in the GOP presidential race, with several candidates making short blitzes to the top, but ultimately falling backward to irrelevance. Former candidate Tim Pawlenty was looked at as the early contender to Romney's campaign, but his platform quickly soured and Pawlenty eventually dropped out of the race.

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Even Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry made a strong effort against Romney following their announced bid for the White House, but both candidates have fallen in recent weeks, leaving Romney the stand-alone candidate once again. And recently, former businessman Herman Cain has eclipsed the Romney campaign, but with sexual harassment allegations hovering over his campaign as a distraction, it is likely Cain will slip in the polls.

And although voters have taken issue with some of Romney's positions -- Massachusetts health care legislation being at the forefront -- conservative voters want President Barack Obama out of office more, which is why Romney has focused his entire campaign on President Obama, instead of other Republican presidential hopefuls.

As the most plausible front-runner, two months before votes are officially cast, Romney has no where to go but up. Instead of shifting his positions to capture the far right of the Republican Party -- mostly Tea Party supporters -- Romney has remained a Massachusetts Republican, positioning his campaign closer to the middle on the political spectrum.

From the onset of his 2012 presidential bid, Romney has hit his message hard against President Obama, even devoting an entire website to the president's "failed" policies. And Romney's more moderate approach to the campaign this time enables him to pick up more independent voters in the general election, who are weary of the Tea Party movement. His general election approach will give him the advantage to unifying the Republican Party after the convention.

While other Republican candidates fight over conservative issues, Romney has been allowed to focus on President Obama and resurrecting jobs. His campaign has never been about refuting the proposed economic plans or eliminating the federal reserve, it has been about job creation and keeping President Obama as a one-term president.

Additionally, Romney has had the last four years to massage his campaign message, tailoring his speeches to his audience and the issues most important to voters. As one of the most seasoned candidates, Romney appears as the most experienced candidate, arguably winning most of the Republican debates.

Polling:

Despite spending little to no money in political ads leading up to the Republican primaries, Romney remains a strong favorite in national polling, always defined as one of two candidates leading in the polls. Although many observers of politics are hesitant to give the nomination to Romney because he hasn't eclipsed the 30 percent mark, there is still room for Romney to grow.

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Recently released polling data for the first four presidential primaries has Romney in the lead. In Florida, Romney leads with 30 percent of the vote, with Cain trailing at 18 percent. In Iowa, 24 percent of voters have said they would vote for Romney, with Cain closing in at 21 percent.

Romney remains the clear favorite in New Hampshire, where he leads the polls at 40 percent to Cain's 13 percent. And finally, in South Carolina, Romney has a battle on his hands, leading Cain by two percentage points at 25 percent.

And despite the hesitant support from many Republicans, Romney leads candidates in favorabilty ratings at 60 percent, with only 24 percent of voters giving the former Massachusetts governor an unfavorable rating. Even among Tea Party voters, Romney has a 52 percent favorability rating.

According to realclearpolitics.com, Romney is the only Republican candidate to give President Obama a close race in the general election, with Texas Congressman Ron Paul as a close second.

Money

In the 2008 presidential election, then-Sen. Barack Obama brought in a significant amount of campaign contributions, giving the Obama campaign a clear advantage over Sen. John McCain. Although not the only reason for winning the presidency, President Obama had the money advantage.

In the 2012 presidential race, Romney has a clear advantage among Republican candidates, with nearly an unlimited supply of money -- from campaign donations to personal wealth. And although Romney lost in 2008 with a large war chest, his advantage over the Republican field cannot be overlooked.

Expect Romney to flood the market with his significant war chest whenever his campaign decides to use it. However, at this point, it is likely Romney does not feel threatened in the primary races, which allows the campaign to save the money for a battle against President Obama.

Political Capital -- Endorsements

On the road to the Republican nomination process, political endorsements, particularly from influential members of the GOP members, are key to a candidate's success. Securing the endorsements of Tim Pawlenty and influential New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie -- among others -- gives the Romney campaign a lot of credibility.

Christie, who many hoped would run for president, enables the Romney campaign with more access to money and the voters who follow him. And with so many influential GOP endorsements in his back pocket, Romney is positioned to secure the Republican nomination.

Democrats -- Obama Focus

Even the Obama campaign presumes Romney will be the Republican nominee, focusing their attacks solely on Romney. When President Obama staff members are asked about the Republican opponents, Romney's name is always mentioned as the candidate to watch, with some even putting a "kill" order to Romney's campaign.

On Wednesday, Priorities USA Action, a super PAC designed to re-elect President Obama, launched a poignant ad campaign against Romney. The ad highlights Romney as the "best chance" for the Republican Party.

Romney and President Obama are seemingly running a general election, battling it out for the White House, while other GOP contenders attempt to jump into the top spot, making little waves in the political waters.

Religion Issue

And finally, Romney appears to have passed the religion test for now. Whether the issue will return as people start casting their votes remains uncertain at this time; however, Romney hasn't had to defend his religion as much as he did during the 2008 election cycle.

Romney lost votes due to the evangelical base supporting Mike Huckabee in 2008. However, this time around, the religion topic has almost become a non-issue, with several GOP candidates looking to bypass the subject.

Although the issue was highlighted when Rick Perry supporter Robert Jeffress called Mormonism a cult, the issue seemed to die rather quickly. Even recent polling indicates Americans are becoming more tolerable of Romney's religion.

The author of this article does not necessarily support Mitt Romney or his campaign for president. The content presented is for information purposes only and is not meant to endorse any presidential candidate.

Email: jfurlong@ksl.com

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