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SALT LAKE CITY — The state's economy maintained its strong showing despite a mild decrease in consumer confidence over the past month.
After a significant jump last month, the Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index declined in April, mirroring national sentiment. The index fell 10.9 points to register at 112.6. Even with the decrease, the overall index remains above 110 — a standard bellwether of economic prosperity in Utah, explained Zions Bank economic adviser Randy Shumway.
The overall index is 3.6 points higher than its level this time last year. The national Consumer Confidence Index decreased 4.6 points from March to April to register at 120.3 — the second straight month the national index has exceeded the Utah measurement.
“Consumer attitudes in Utah have sustained high levels for over a year, so it is understandable that we occasionally experience a slight dip rather than a continuous upward path,” Shumway said Tuesday during a monthly news conference in Salt Lake City. “Consumer attitude trends in Utah are moving in tandem with national consumer confidence, and the economy remains strong.”
The decrease in the overall index primarily resulted from lower expectations for the economy over the next six months, as slightly fewer Utahns expect business conditions to improve, number of jobs to increase and household income to rise, he noted.
The survey indicated that 62 percent of Utahns believe the price of consumer goods in general will go up over the next 12 months, compared to 59 percent last month. Among the items to likely see price increases is food, due in part to a growing labor shortage resulting from uneven immigration policies in the nation's capital, explained Shumway.
"Immigration and obstructing immigration is counterproductive," he said. "We need immigrants that are willing and anxious to pick produce."
One local business owner concurred, saying poor U.S. policies are going to have a big effect on food costs at home and away from home.
"What's really impacting food prices is a very tight labor market as a consequence of a lack of sound immigration policy from Washington," said Steve Rosenberg, owner of Liberty Heights Fresh organic market in Salt Lake City. "From the growers that I talk to in California, they are having a hard time finding people to pick everything that's ready to harvest and to take care of it before it's harvested."
He added that rainy weather following years of drought in California and the West has also affected food prices.
Shumway noted that in addition to immigrant labor needed for food production, poorly developed policies are also impacting other economic sectors such as technology and business.
"We need immigrants on H-1B visas coming in and ensuring that innovation that originates in the United States stays in the United States and becomes commercialized in the United States," he said. The H-1B is a non-immigrant visa that allows U.S. employers to temporarily hire foreign workers in specialty occupations.
Contrary to declining consumer sentiment this month, the state's robust employment sector is driving high demand for more workers for unfilled and new jobs being created by Utah's strong economy. But an undersupply of qualified workers is creating a potential problem for Utah employers who are struggling to fill open positions, Shumway said.
With local unemployment at 3.1 percent and the U.S. jobless rate at 4.5 percent, rising demand for employees is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, he added.
"Without us keeping these extraordinary graduate students from overseas on student visas, (and) without us creating more access to H-1B visas, we're going to see a lot of the opportunity to commercialize innovation leaving the United States and starting in other countries," Shumway said.
The Utah Consumer Attitude Index is based on a representative sample of 500 Utah households surveyed by the Cicero Group with a confidence level of plus or minus 4.4 percent at 95 percent confidence. The data collected are compared with Utah and U.S. data from previous months to identify key consumer sentiment trends statewide. Email: jlee@deseretnews.com Twitter: JasenLee1
