Utah football mailbag: CFP at-large chances, rooting for BYU, travel nightmares, and more

SALT LAKE CITY — You're excited. I get it.

You watched the University of Utah pummel Cincinnati over the weekend to move to 7-2 overall.

Then, it dawned on you.

The Utes are still in the mix to advance to the Big 12 championship game, and maybe — maybe — the College Football Playoff if they don't win on Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Then, there's this other thing flying around Utes Twitter.

People seem to be wondering, quite loudly by the way, whether Utah can get to the CFP without even getting to the Big 12 championship game.

Can everyone just take a breath, please?

We'll start this Utes mailbag right there.

Q: "College football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday. Let's say that Utah comes in around 15. What are the chances that Utah doesn't get to the Big 12 championship game, but sneaks into the Playoff as an at-large? Need a lot of help, but if they keep destroying teams every week, it might be possible?" - @utes_big12

I began soliciting mailbag questions on Sunday morning with the intention of having it done on Tuesday, before the initial CFP rankings reveal. I decided to wait until Wednesday, after the reveal, and I'm glad I did, because now we have a barometer to work from.

Utah checked in at No. 13 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday, four spots higher than its Associated Press Top 25 rankings, and an indication that the metrics favor the Utes.

Cool. Here's the problem.

Tuesday was a barometer, and that's all it was. Ultimately, it means nothing, just like next week's midseason reveal will mean nothing, and the one after that, and the one after that.

When I first read this question on Sunday, I was going to obliterate this question; but, again, I'm glad I waited until we had some data, so let's go along with this scenario.

At the moment, the Big 12 is shaping up as a two-bid league, but those two bids are BYU, which controls its own destiny toward Arlington, and Texas Tech. If the CFP were seeded and bracketed today, Utah is out.

At the moment, the notion of the Big 12 being a three-bid league seems impossible, but we're not seeding and bracketing this thing for another month.

First, Utah absolutely has to win out to finish 10-2; that is simply non-negotiable. If Utah loses to either Baylor, Kansas State, or Kansas, we're discussing which players are opting out of the Alamo Bowl.

Second, not only do you have to win out, but it would help if the Utes blew these teams out. Margin of victory, as well as strength of schedule, are factors here.

Third, for this particular scenario, it would help if certain teams above Utah started losing.

No. 12, two-loss Oklahoma goes to Alabama Nov. 15.

No. 11, two-loss Texas still has to go to Georgia and host Texas A&M.

No. 10, two-loss Notre Dame is one loss from being out of the mix, although that loss seems unlikely right now.

Regardless of what happens elsewhere, Utah has at least one major problem: Its resume is not good, and it's probably not going to get better.

The Utes have zero wins over teams ranked in the CFP Top 25, and none of its three remaining opponents are, or will be ranked. Furthermore, Utah lost to the two best teams in the Big 12, BYU and Texas Tech.

Does Utah start rising in the CFP rankings simply via attrition if the teams above them start losing? I don't think it's going to be that simple.

So, ask yourself, what is being the third-best team in the Big 12 actually worth.

Probably not a CFP spot, unless some real chaos begins to unfold.

Q: "Is there a world where Utah wins out, beating their last three opponents by 30-plus, and the committee looks at them and believes they are the top team in Big 12, due to injured QB in both losses that changed those games. Do they possibly get the last at-large over Big 12 championship loser?" - @cyideal69

Utah could beat Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas by 30 apiece, but what you're proposing simply is not going to be the case.

The CFP selection committee is not going to emerge from the deliberation room for the final time on Dec. 6 believing Utah is the best team in the Big 12.

Again, remember, Utah was held at arm's length for three quarters, then got bodyslammed in the fourth quarter by Texas Tech, then lost a winnable game at BYU.

In no sane world will a group of 12 people charged with creating this CFP field surmise the Utes are the best team in the league.

Chaos aside, if things go chalk, or even chalk-ish the rest of the way, it is impossible to envision Big 12 No. 3 Utah getting into the CFP ahead of the championship game runner-up.

As for the injured QB, some Utah fans this week have pretty clearly decided to turn that into the reason they'll get mad in a month if the Utes don't get to the CFP.

Devon Dampier was in there for all 79 of Utah's offensive snaps against Texas Tech, and played the vast majority of the BYU game.

He played, for better or worse.

Let go of that one, folks.

Q: "Gut check. Does Utah win out AND get the necessary help to play in Texas next month? Speaking of gut, build a Thanksgiving plate with four items from the spread." - @MrSmokinUte

Assuming reasonable health, I like Utah at this point to win out and finish 10-2.

For what it's worth, the Utes should be significant betting favorites the rest of the way, including at Baylor out of the open week on Nov. 15. Three months ago, on paper, that trip to Waco felt a little tricky; but that was three months ago, and the Bears have turned out to be a mid-tier Big 12 team.

I don't think Utah is going to get the help it needs.

I think Texas Tech is going to handle BYU on Saturday in Lubbock in a hugely-critical Big 12 game, then beat UCF, then win at West Virginia to finish 11-1.

Under that scenario, if I am deciphering KSL.com sports director Josh Furlong's flow chart correctly, Utah would then need BYU to lose a second game to either TCU, Cincinnati, or UCF to sneak into the Big 12 championship game.

There will be some clarity Saturday after BYU and Texas Tech play, but right now, on Wednesday, no, I don't like Utah's chances of getting to Jerry World.

Four items from the Thanksgiving spread

1. Turkey: Honestly, I could go either way on turkey, but societal norms dictate you must have it on your plate, specifically if someone else is hosting.

2. Stuffing: We need to normalize stuffing outside of holidays. It's terrific. What is stopping us from deciding we want stuffing as a side dish in the middle of May?

3. Green bean casserole: I am a late adopter of this delicacy, probably within the last five years. Give me ALL of the fried onions on top of the casserole dish.

4. Mac and cheese: I don't judge what your mac and cheese looks like or how you make it. I'm going to eat it 100% of the time.

BONUS DESSERT TAKE: There is nothing special about apple pie.

Q: "It seems like the best chance for Utah to make the Big 12 championship game is by having BYU win out and the tiebreakers go our way, but I don't want to root for those guys. Any advice on how to deal with this conflict?" - @ngde09

Again, if I am deciphering Furlong's flowchart correctly, the easiest path for Utah to get to the Big 12 championship game would include BYU winning out to finish 12-0.

That means Utah fans should be rooting for BYU for the rest of the month, and, well, I don't need to explain to you why that is an existential crisis for a lot of people.

I have three ideas on how Utah fans can deal with this.

Idea No. 1: Let it out in therapy. If this is such an issue for someone, use a therapy session or two to let it all out. Jokes aside, I used to think therapy was a joke. I don't feel that way anymore. This has been a PSA masked as a Utah mailbag answer. You're welcome.

Idea No. 2: Walk out to your backyard once a day and scream some obscenities as a pressure valve release. Your neighbors might get concerned, or even call the cops, but you'll just explain what you're doing. I'm sure it'll be OK.

Idea No. 3: But seriously, you should be rooting for BYU, because a Utah-BYU Big 12 championship game would objectively be the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

The winner goes to the College Football Playoff, and while the loser may grab an at-large spot, that is no certainty.

The Utes and Cougars have played a football game against each other 103 times. Only once, the 2015 Las Vegas Bowl, has there been a postseason game.

I wrote this, then read it back, then looked back at the series history to make sure I wasn't exaggerating.

I am definitely not exaggerating.

That would easily be the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

"Go Cougs," Utah fans, probably, maybe.

Q: "While I like #Pac12AfterDark as much as anyone and will gladly take the 8 p.m. slot (despite lamentations of the media :), it isn't very fair when the game is at 10 p.m. or later for the other fans. Any possibility of scheduling rules so Western teams aren't too early, nor Eastern too late?" - @EvanWillie

I genuinely appreciate the idealism here, making broadcast times as fair as possible for everyone regardless of time zone, but no.

Generally speaking, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State are not in the Big 12 so the league and its broadcast partners can have noon kickoffs in those markets.

They're in the Big 12 so they can play at night, and therefore provide the broadcast partners with late inventory.

Three of Utah's four Big 12 home games this season have been 10:15 p.m. ET kickoffs. The game at BYU was an 8 p.m. ET kickoff in Provo.

Your point is well-taken, but it was made clear a long time ago what the TV networks are worried about, and it's not whether the fans on the East Coast have to stay up late.

Q: "Looking ahead, which notable Utes do you feel like would be strong transfer candidates? What kind of roster turnover should we expect if Whitt retires?" - @The99thProblem

The second part of this question is interesting to me, because yeah, when there is a coaching change, your program, but more specifically your roster, could be susceptible to some chaos.

Morgan Scalley is Utah's "head coach in waiting," so assuming that succession plan is completed, the roster chaos is probably mitigated, but you can expect at least some roster turnover. That's just part of the sport at this point on an annual basis.

I honestly can't tell you a thing about which Utes would be strong transfer candidates, but I do wonder which players opposing teams are going to try to poach.

I would back up the Brink's truck for John Henry Daley.

QB-needy teams should kick the tires on Dampier, although his asking price would be quite high given what he's due next season at Utah.

Wayshawn Parker and Byrd Ficklin are two more guys coming to mind as Utah potentially needing to fight to keep this offseason.

Q: "At some point, Utah does need some mild credit for making ASU and Cincy look so bad. Jeff Sims just won a road game. Cincy was 5-0. It's hard to outclass competent football teams." - @Jusorenson

Sure.

I've spent considerable time here this season poo-pooing on Utah's schedule and its lack of quality wins. And no, Utah does not have a win over a team ranked by the CFP, but our questioner here is correct.

Arizona State is a good football team, complete with a win over Texas Tech, and the Utes made them look bad in a 42-10 decision. I understand Sam Leavitt did not play, but the way Utah's offense looked that night, Leavitt was not making up 32 points.

I am less inclined to pump up Cincinnati. Yes, the Bearcats were 5-0 in the Big 12, and have certainly been an unexpected factor in the conference title race, but the quality of teams beaten isn't there.

Q: "Is Friendsgiving better than actual Thanksgiving?" - @Real_Consumr

Yes.

This doesn't apply to everyone, but the big factor putting Friendsgiving over actual Thanksgiving is the lack of family drama involved.

Friendsgiving is conducted with a group of people you genuinely want to be around. That's not to say you don't want to be around your family, but I think a lot of us have that one uncle or cousin that just kills the vibe for everyone else, right?

Before we moved from New Jersey to Utah in 2019, we had a Friendsgiving, but also turned it into something of a goodbye party, and it was awesome.

A potluck with 8-10 people. We didn't do a turkey, but I think we did a couple of prepared turkey breasts from Whole Foods. People brought sides, people brought dessert, people brought drinks. We watched football and we chilled with people we wanted to be with and, frankly, people we really miss.

I look fondly upon that Friendsgiving because Thanksgiving that year was just the two of us in our empty Sugar House apartment, waiting for our furniture to show up the next day.

That sucked.

Q: "Here's a supremely dumb question that isn't CFP talk. With the plethora of head coaching jobs open, even with "head coach in waiting" et al., do we worry about Morgan Scalley or even Jason Beck being tapped?" - @SchwarzAdam

I've touched on this previously, so I'm not going to ramble on here, but Kyle Whittingham's impending retirement decision feels significant to me.

If Whittingham decides to return in 2026 (his contract runs through 2027), that's obviously another year in which Scalley is not the head coach. Depending on which athletic department source you ask, Scalley expected that he would be the head coach in 2025.

Scalley, a Highland High graduate who has been with Utah in some capacity since 2001, just turned 46. He has been the Utes' defensive coordinator since 2016. He was seasoned enough years ago to justify being a head coach.

To be clear, nothing is imminent, but I do wonder, if Whittingham returns, how much more patience does Scalley have to wait his turn for the big seat?

Q: "Cincinnati fans were talking about their terrible sports weekend between the Bearcats, Bengals, and FC Cincinnati. What is the worst sports weekend you have experienced?" - @nstod

You meant this from the fan perspective, but I'm going to give you a story from the beat writer perspective.

In 2017, I was covering Rutgers football and Monmouth basketball, but the priority was the former.

One November weekend, Rutgers had a noon kickoff at Indiana on Saturday, while Monmouth was playing at Virginia at 1 p.m. the next afternoon.

My employer at the time generally didn't let me get on a plane to cover Monmouth, but I was already on the road for Rutgers, so they allowed it.

Then, the nightmare started.

Rutgers-Indiana, a 41-0 Scarlet Knights loss, included a 100-minute weather delay before mercifully ending.

In my infinite wisdom, trying to save the company money, check out this Sunday itinerary.

A 6 a.m. flight from Indianapolis to Reagan Airport. I then hopped a 17-minute(!) flight from Reagan to Charlottesville. On that 17-minute flight, I managed to accidentally leave my tablet on the plane, never to be seen again.

I covered Monmouth-UVA, a predictable 20-point Cavs win, before driving 150 miles from Charlottesville back to D.C. The next morning, I hopped an Amtrak Northeast Regional train from Union Station back to Newark Airport, retrieved my car, and drove an hour south to my place in Bradley Beach.

Here's a tip for young journalists: When traveling, you should be aware of what your travel budget looks like, but you should not inconvenience yourself to the point of making yourself miserable.

To that point, I am happy to say I later worked for adults in both Salt Lake City and Austin.

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