Estimated read time: 11-12 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — There is a lot of angst among University of Utah football fans in the wake of the Utes' 24-21 loss at BYU on Saturday evening.
The majority of that angst has to do with the Utes going 1-for-5 on fourth down, but more specifically, head coach Kyle Whittingham's insistence on leaning heavily, seemingly exclusively, into analytics.
Football-wise, advanced metrics have become a big part of the sport over the last 20 years, but when they go awry, when it feels like they were directly responsible for a loss, people are going to be mad about it.
We'll start this Utes mailbag right there.
Q: "After losing by three points while going 0-for-3 on fourth down instead of FGs, Whitt defended the decision, saying he won't go against the analytics. At what point does rigidly following numbers, which don't account for momentum or game context, become a liability? Where's the coaching judgment?" - @Css20666
For what it's worth, normally when I do the mailbag, there is a good mix of topics people want to discuss. For this particular mailbag, the overwhelming majority of questions had to do with the fourth-down failures against BYU, and Whittingham leaning heavily into analytics, which isn't some new phenomenon.
Utah was 1-for-5 on fourth down in a 24-21 loss to the Cougars, but as our questioner here alluded to, three of the six fourth-down tries were certainly glaring in what was a close loss.
Before actually answering this question, let's go through those three.
Fourth-and-1 at the BYU 12, scoreless game with 6:50 left in Q1: A handoff to Daniel Bray goes for a 1-yard loss, thanks in large part to a missed block. I understand the folks who wanted to take the points there on the road, but there should be no issue with going there on the 12th play of a drive that began on the Utah 6.
Right time, right play, bad execution. In my opinion, the decision to go here becomes worse because of what happened later.
Fourth-and-7 at the BYU 28, Cougars up 7-0 with 9:11 left in Q2: This is the one that got people very worked up. Dillon Curtis went out there for a 45-yard field goal. He shanked it horribly, but was saved by a BYU timeout. Instead of sending Curtis back out there, Whittingham opted to go, resulting in an incomplete pass that would have put the Utes in the red zone.
That sequence says to me that Whittingham does not trust his big-leg kicker from 45 yards. That's a problem. I would love to see the analytics sheet that says to go at that down and distance, from that spot. That makes very little sense to me.
Fourth-and-3 at the BYU 8, Cougars leading 10-7 with 8:47 left in Q3: Operating out of the shotgun, a Devin Dampier keeper goes for 2 yards after he fails to follow his lead blocker. If he did that, he might have walked into the end zone.
I am probably taking the points in that spot, but in a vacuum, I don't have a major problem going there, especially if you're going to utilize your dual-threat QB. At that point, the Utes were 0-for-3 on fourth down, potentially leaving at least 9 points on the table.
Back to the question, my stance on analytics through the years, regardless of the sport, hasn't really changed. Using advanced metrics can be part of the equation, but as this person points out, they fail to account for momentum and context.
Furthermore, they do not take into account what Whittingham is seeing out there with his own eyes, or what his gut is telling him. The fact this was a rivalry game, as some have pointed out, is completely irrelevant.
Whittingham then walked into his postgame presser, doubled down on his analytics usage, and was unwilling to budge from that stance in the immediate haze of a frustrating loss.
Whittingham walked it all back just a little bit on Monday during his weekly press conference, but what's done is done.
Saturday night was a failure. A failure in terms of execution in those key spots, and a failure in terms of Whittingham putting his team in the best possible position to win a game it led early in the fourth quarter.
Hindsight is always 20/20. If Utah hits on even one of those questionable fourth downs, it's a different game, but that matters very little. Instead, those decisions and that lack of execution is now likely to haunt this team, which had everything in front of it to play for this fall.
Whittingham has been a college football coach for 40 years, more than half of that as the head coach at Utah.
That should always outweigh what the computer thinks.
Q: "That game was close. Are we overreacting?" - @UTEISH
Utah had more total yards, more passing yards, more rushing yards, more first downs, and ran more plays, but managed to find a way to lose a game against its blood rival.
The game was close. And?
Are fans overreacting? Probably not, because compounding all of this is the fact that the Utes now have two conference losses. That means their chances at getting to the Big 12 championship game are dependent upon not only winning out, but also getting some help.
You can't lose that game, to that team, in that particular manner, and face the prospect of having your season go down the toilet without having people overreact.
Frankly, I thought the fan reaction was warranted. If it were any less, I would have been surprised.
Q: "What's the record vibes you're getting? I'm feeling 8-4 or 9-3." - @WhittsBurner
The last time we visited this topic about a month ago, I kept my ceiling from the preseason, meaning 10-2 overall, 7-2 in the Big 12. I still think that's the ceiling, but that was always assuming reasonable team health. Devon Dampier is not healthy at the moment.
A month ago, I had the floor at 8-4, and I'm sticking with that. On paper, the schedule is about to soften up, even though a Nov. 1 visit from Cincinnati looks a lot more treacherous than we all thought two months ago.
Now, what do I actually think Utah's record will be at the end? I'm going with 9-3. It just feels like there's another clunker lurking out there. Maybe Cincinnati, maybe Baylor in Waco. One of those feels like a bad time.
Q: "If the analytics say you should go through a green light, but your eyes see a car running the red in the cross direction, do you continue through the green light?" - @mras_steph80191
I was going to skip past this entirely, but I'd rather make fun of myself.
When I was 16 and learning to drive, I was behind the wheel one afternoon with my dad around the neighborhood.
We came up to a stop sign, but the white "STOP" was spray-painted over in black with the word "GO."
I apparently short-circuited, because I saw "GO," so I went through the sign.
An expletive or two soon followed, as I was then told to turn off the engine and that we were done for the day.
That story still gets brought up among family. I stink.
Q: "Is it time to move on from Whitt? Is Scalley the answer? Is there a recipe for success for Utah in the modern game? - @robertsaj17
There is a lot happening here.
First of all, we really need to have this quick chat: Unless something has radically changed that I am not aware of, Kyle Whittingham is not getting fired. Short of a scandal or something comparable, there is just no world in which Whittingham is told to leave. Are we good there? Fine.
I don't know if Scalley is the answer, and neither does anyone else. You can go through Scalley's resume as a defensive coordinator, and you think it's a fit, and you think it's going to be fairly easy and seamless, but until you see how he operates as a first-time head coach, and what his staff looks like, we just don't know what to expect.
I will say, it's not always easy to replace THE GUY. The guy who takes over for THE GUY is always being compared to THE GUY, and that can weigh you down like an anchor if you let it. If Year 1, whenever that is, is a mess, it's going to get awfully noisy around town pretty immediately.
Utah needs to figure out its pass game. It needs more than one viable wide receiver, and if you're not going to have more than one, you better have at least one, but preferably two pass-catching tight ends and a highly-functional rushing attack.
Q: "Does having a "Head Coach in waiting" hurt your team more than it helps?" - @kjb_lovinlife
I would be lying if I said I knew much about this dynamic inside the building, but it's definitely interesting.
Everyone is a professional, everyone is going to do their respective job everyday, but I do wonder, did Scalley believe he would be the head coach in 2025?
Scalley's latest amended contract was quietly agreed to and signed on Nov. 23, 2023, before the school announced it on July 1, 2024. At that point, Utah was coming off a difficult 2023 and would then endure a tougher 2024. It felt like Whittingham was going to walk away after 2024.
So, Scalley waits.
I'm paraphrasing here, but Whittingham has stated publicly that any decision on his future will take the health of the program into consideration.
For the first time in I honestly don't know how long, the current health of the program may dictate that a new voice in charge could do some good.
That's where I am with this "head coach in waiting" business.
Q: "Dampier doesn't seem to be the answer, as he has limited passing ability. Ficklin has looked good. Any chance of a QB change?" - @SkiBumm57
Whether or not you think Dampier has been good, whether or not you think he's the answer, it appears we're about to get a much bigger look at Ficklin, and I for one am very intrigued to see what happens next.
Whittingham on Monday said there's a "distinct possibility" Ficklin starts Saturday night against Colorado because of Dampier injuring his ankle against BYU. Dampier exited at one point, Ficklin came in, and Dampier returned with the ankle heavily taped.
Yes, Ficklin has looked good, but remember, the majority of his action has come in mop-up duty. The BYU game notwithstanding, Ficklin has no experience going against a first-team defense.
I've been pretty staunch in my belief that it would be tough to start Ficklin, who came to Utah pretty green, but here we are. He's done enough to warrant the opportunity, so let's see what the kid has, even if it's out of necessity.
Last thing here. Let's rewind back to last week's mailbag.
I floated the idea that, well, maybe Dampier isn't the unquestioned starter in 2026.
Ficklin needs more seasoning, but regardless of what happens Saturday if he starts, if you believe he could be your future starter, it's not the craziest idea to make Dampier re-earn his job come springtime.
The long-term possibilities will be fascinating if Ficklin plays well, or even beats Colorado.
Q: "How big of a hit does the brand take when Kyle exits, stage left? It feels to me like Kyle is synonymous with Utah football, though folks don't want to admit that. I don't think Big Noon Kickoff shows up for Texas Tech-Utah if Morgan Scalley is the coach. Pat McAfee isn't featuring Morgan rolling in on a Harley." - Anonymous
Yep, good stuff.
Whittingham is the face of that program, and has been so for many years.
The vaunted 2008 team will live forever. The 2021 and 2022 teams will sit on a similar plateau for all time. In between, Utah pretty deftly moved from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, and what's more, it became a legitimate Pac-12 contender inside of a decade after the move, which did not seem possible.
The big constant through all of it has been Whittingham, so yeah, even if you're salty right now and you're emotionally venting that you're ready to move on, he is the person most people think of when Utah football comes up.
I do agree, the brand probably gets dented, at least at the outset when Whittingham leaves, which, if you believe what I wrote above, is to be expected.
I always found Whittingham to be fairly subdued in public settings, but at the same time, he's a very interesting character.
He'll show up on his Harley, and he will arm wrestle Pat McAfee with a cutoff T-shirt on, and he'll pump up his program whenever the chance arises. He's pretty affable and, jokes about injury reports aside, I always found him pleasant to work with.
He certainly gave me more time one-on-one than he needed to at various points for various projects while covering his program.
Yes, when Whittingham leaves, there's going to be, not damage to the brand, per se, but maybe a shift in how things operate, and how Scalley wants to put himself out there, and how everything is presented.
It may be different, it may be similar, we don't know until that switch happens.
I do feel fairly certain Scalley will not be rolling up anywhere on a Harley, though, so there's that.
