Pick Six Previews: BYU with clear advantage against injured West Virginia


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PROVO — BYU defeated Colorado 24-21 in Boulder Saturday night to improve to another 4-0 start.

This was BYU's toughest test yet as they trailed 14-0 before cutting the lead to 4 at halftime after a Bear Bachmeier touchdown pass to Chase Roberts. Bachmeier evaded pressure in the pocket several times and added a game-high 98 yards on the ground.

Trailing 21-17 in the fourth quarter, offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick dialed up a creative fake reverse, end-around that his offense executed to perfection. Cody

Hagen took the sweep all the way for what ended up as the game-winning score.

Then the defense took over. They ended one drive by sacking Colorado quarterback Kaidon Salter for a 22-yard loss. Then on Colorado's final attempt, linebacker Isaiah Glasker picked the ball and sealed the win.

BYU continues Big 12 play with West Virginia coming to Provo Friday night (8:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): BYU 49.3 (36th of 68 Power 4) | West Virginia 44.1 (50th)
2024 season: BYU 70.0 (10th) | West Virginia 39.9 (54th)
2025 season: BYU 61.4 (27th) | West Virginia 32.9 (64th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish eighth in a wide-open Big 12 race. They have exceeded expectations through September and are now projected to finish 7-2 in league play.

West Virginia is one of two Big 12 programs going through a coaching change transition season, with former head coach Rich Rodriguez returning. I projected West Virginia to place 14th in the 16-team league, and so far they are 2-3 with a loss to non-AQ Ohio, a close overtime win over rival Pittsburgh, and then blowout losses to Kansas and Utah.

They are currently ranked in the bottom five of 2025 Game Grader.

BYU with the ball

(Rankings out of 136 FBS teams)

BYU offense: 38.5 points/game (22nd), 6.3 yards/carry (8th), 7.4 yards/attempt (68th)
West Virginia defense: 26.6 points/game (91st), 3.7 yards/carry (52nd), 7.2 yards/attempt (81st)

Bachmeier posted another efficient passing game going 19-of-27 for 179 yards and two touchdowns. Not shown in the box score are his scrambles where he either extends the play long enough to hit a wide-open receiver, or he tucks the ball and picks up valuable extra yardage.

He has looked poised beyond his age as a true freshman Power Four starter.

Roberts earned All-Big 12 honors in my preview magazine, and last week he shined as the lead receiver and caught both of Bachmeier's touchdowns. Tight end Carsen Ryan is also becoming a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.

West Virginia has been blown out the past two weeks, and both losses had defensive breakdowns. They allowed 41 points and 242 rushing yards to Kansas, and then last week gave up 48 points and another 242 rushing yards to Utah.

BYU is in the national top 10 of all my rushing metrics so far, and they should go for 200+ on the ground and control the tempo of the game.

West Virginia with the ball

(Rankings out of 136 FBS teams)

West Virginia offense (2025): 22 points/game (99th), 4.7 yards/carry (55th), 7.1 yards/attempt (80th)
BYU defense (2025): 9.3 points/game (4th), 2.5 yards/carry (9th), 5.5 yards/attempt (16th)

Against Utah, West Virginia's backup quarterback Jaylen Henderson started the game but left at halftime. They tried third-stringer Khalil Wilkins, who had a few nice runs and threw a touchdown pass, but this quarterback room remains unsettled with original starter Nicco Marchiol and Henderson now both expected out with injuries.

Rodriguez is an offensive mastermind, but his transition season has been derailed by injuries. West Virginia's best running back, Jahiem White, is done for the year, two of their top receivers are out, and two more linemen are injured.

BYU's defense should get back to their dominant ways here. In my opponent-adjusted metrics, West Virginia is just 65th of 68 teams in overall offense, and 66th in passing.

Meanwhile BYU remains in the national top 10 of almost every defensive stat category, and this opponent is a step down in talent than what they faced last week at Colorado.

Game prediction

This will be the third matchup all time between BYU and West Virginia, and the Mountaineers won the first two. In 2016, West Virginia won on a neutral-site in Washington DC 35-32, and then dominated 37-7 in BYU's Big 12 transition season.

Kalani Sitake's program is much stronger two years later. Over the past two seasons, BYU is 15-2 overall, and 10-2 against Big 12 teams. They finally get home-field advantage in this series, forcing West Virginia to travel across the country and play in high altitude.

My Game Grader formula projects a 20-point BYU win, and I agree — especially with the injuries on West Virginia's offense and their top two quarterbacks expected out of the lineup.

BYU 34 | West Virginia 13

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Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.

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