SALT LAKE CITY — No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 6 Oregon in the annual "White Out" game at Beaver Stadium in a Big Ten title game rematch Saturday night (5:30 p.m. MDT, NBC).
Oregon won that title game 45-37 in December, but it was Penn State who made the deeper playoff run, and held a lead over Notre Dame before a late collapse cost them a spot in their first national title game since 1986.
It's been almost that long since Penn State has carried such high preseason expectations — right up there with their 1994, 2008, and 2017 teams.
Several stars that could have gone pro elected to return for a final season, Penn State addressed their roster weakness at receiver through the transfer portal, and they even stole Ohio State's defensive mastermind Jim Knowles.
Oregon continues to elevate their talent level with nation-best recruiting efforts from head coach Dan Lanning. They are extremely talented but young, and this will be their first real road test.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Penn State 75.8 (5th of 68 Power 4) | Oregon 77.7 (4th)
2024 season: Penn State 76.3 (6th) | Oregon 77.4 (4th)
2025 season: Penn State 81.4 (2nd) | Oregon 78.2 (4th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Penn State to not only win the Big Ten, but they were my preseason No. 1 team in America. So far they played three non-AQ teams and have been untested, beating them by an average margin of 38 points per game.
Oregon was also a playoff selection in the magazine, and I wrote that they are my national champion pick … in 2026. Their talent level is incredible, but they are very young, and I forecasted their second year together in 2026 to be their title run.
Penn State with the ball
Penn State offense: 44 points/game (13th of 136 FBS teams), 5.5 yards/carry (25th), 7.4 yards/pass (71st)
Oregon defense: 9.3 points/game (9th of 136 FBS teams), 3.3 yards/carry (41st), 5.1 yards/pass (12th)
Andy Kotelnicki came over from Kansas and unlocked the offense last year, as Penn State ranked in the top 20 of both explosive passing and explosive rushing. That has not continued into 2025 so far, despite returning four all-conference offensive linemen, both backs, and their quarterback.
Drew Allar has had a slow start and currently ranks 14th in the Big Ten in QB rating. I am expecting the offense to come to life Saturday, similar to how Georgia's offense was slow in their non-AQ games but then exploded in their first real game against Tennessee.
Penn State added USC starter Kyron Hudson, All-ACC contender Trebor Pena from Syracuse, and speedster Devonte Ross from Troy to address their issue at wide receiver. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton form the best one-two punch in America.
Oregon's defense is loaded with five-star recruits and rank in the top 10 of most defensive stat categories. It is a small sample size, but so far the rushing defense is outside the top 40, and may be a spot where Penn State can take advantage.
Oregon with the ball
Oregon offense: 50.8 points/game (7th of 136 FBS teams), 6.7 yards/carry (7th), 10 yards/pass (11th)
Penn State defense: 5.7 points/game (3rd of 136 FBS teams), 2.9 yards/carry (22nd), 4.6 yards/pass (5th)
While Penn State's offense has looked slow at times, Oregon has had no such issue. They are averaging over 50 points per game, and against Oklahoma State it looked like they were practicing against air.
The Ducks already have nine plays for 40+ yards and six plays for 50+ yards (Penn State just two and one, respectively) and have moved the ball at ease.
Despite losing a starter in fall camp, they still have some of the best playmakers in the pass game with true freshman Dakorien Moore at receiver and Kenyon Sadiq at tight end. Dante Moore has been near-perfect passing the ball, with the nation's No. 5 rank in QB rating and 11 touchdowns to just one pick.
I give the edge on this side to Penn State's defense. They are consistently an elite defense and look as strong as ever, especially in the trenches. They are generating a negative play — sack or tackle for loss — on an incredible 16% of snaps.
Oregon has benefitted from super-veteran quarterbacks like BoNix and Dillon Gabriel, but now Moore makes his first true ranked road test.
Game prediction
This week in my stats/info package Pick Six PLUS, I researched the all-time history of Penn State's White Out games. This could be the best homefield advantage in college football, as they are 15-6 (.714) against the spread and 14-8 straight-up, and these are usually against top-10 opponents.
That trend will continue, as Penn State has the more veteran roster, more 2026 mock NFL draft picks, two brilliant coordinators, are fresh off a bye and three tune-up games, while Oregon has played four games, two Power Four games, a bitter rivalry, and makes the cross-country trip.
Penn State 28 | Oregon 20
