Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Ohio State and Indiana meet Saturday in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title. They are the only two remaining 12-0 teams, and this will mark the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 conference title game since the 2009 SEC championship that featured Urban Meyer's Florida against Nick Saban's Alabama.
Like the 2009 headliner, this one also features two coaching legends and the top Heisman candidates.
Ryan Day is 82-10 overall and his 89.1% win percentage is the best in college football history. Ohio State is riding a 16-game win streak since the Michigan upset loss last November and are attempting to repeat as national champions.
Curt Cignetti has already pulled off one of the best program turnarounds in college football history. Indiana was historically the punching bag of the Big Ten — lowest program all-time win percentage — but Cignetti transformed them overnight.
Since his brash opening quote of "I win, Google me," he has backed that up with an 11-2 debut season and now the school's first perfect 12-0 year.
Lucas Oil Stadium hosts No. 1 vs. No. 2 for Big Ten supremacy and the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff (6 p.m. MST, FOX).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Ohio State 83.3 (2nd of 68 Power 4) | Indiana 41.3 (56th)
2024 season: Ohio State 89.2 (1st) | Indiana 72.8 (8th)
2025 season: Ohio State 96.2 (1st) | Indiana 87.5 (2nd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Ohio State to finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye in the playoff. So far, that has held true, as they are a perfect 12-0 and have dominated their opponents.
In the season opener, they beat preseason then-No. 1 Texas 14-7; and then every game from there they have won by 18 or more points (+270 yardage per game). Ohio State is a clear No. 1 in Game Grader.
Last season, Indiana beat up on its weaker opponents but lost both top-10 tests to Ohio State and Notre Dame. Here in Cignetti's second season, they are even stronger and actually won their top 10 test by going into Autzen Stadium and beating Oregon by 10, and 10 of their 12 wins are by double-digits. They check in at No. 2 in Game Grader.
Ohio State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Ohio State offense: 14th of 68 Power 4 teams, 2nd passing, 22nd rushing
Indiana defense: 15th of 68 Power 4 teams, 10th pass defense, 10th rush defense
Coming into the season, the only question for Ohio State's offense was at quarterback. They returned most of the offensive line that played through their Playoff run, they signed a top-rated receiving tight end in Max Klare, and they had the best receiver Jeremiah Smith (plus his All-Big Ten sidekick Carnell Tate) back in Columbus.
Julian Sayin turned an uncertainty into a strength and he is currently a top Heisman contender with his nation-best QB rating and a 79% completion rate that is on pace for an FBS record. He has shown he can make every throw on the field, yes even deep shots, with extremely precise accuracy.
Last week against their toughest defense yet, Sayin threw a pick on his first pass, but settled in from there to throw for 233 yards and three touchdowns. He hit Smith for a 35-yard score and then Tate for a 50-yarder.
Indiana's defense looks stronger than Michigan's on paper in the raw stats, but when adjusting for opponent strength they are about even.
Indiana is the only Big Ten defense with three of the top eight in tackles for loss, with Stephen Daley, Isaiah Jones, and Rolijah Hardy combining for 41.5. Daley's 18 lead the league — and the entire nation.
They rank No. 1 in my negative play rate, which tracks how often the defense disrupts behind the line of scrimmage. The No. 1 pass rush meets the No. 1 pass protection, with the Ohio State line allowing sacks on just 2% of pass attempts.
Indiana with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Indiana offense: 5th of 68 Power 4 teams, 1st passing, 9th rushing
Ohio State defense: 1st of 68 Power 4 teams, 4th pass defense, 6th rush defense
Sayin is No. 1 player in QB rating, but Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is No. 2, and they are tied in yards per attempt (9.4) and nearly tied in touchdowns/picks with Sayin at 30-5 and Mendoza at 32-5.
As leaders of the only 12-0 teams, both are Heisman favorites, and this game could serve as the deciding factor for many voters.
Omar Cooper and Elijah Sarratt form the only duo in America with 10+ receiving touchdowns each. This No. 1 ranked pass offense will face the No. 1 overall defense.
Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in almost every major statistical category – most notably points per game (7.8) and yards per game (203) – and have All-America candidates all over the place: Caden Curry and Kayden McDonald in the trenches, Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese at linebacker, and then possibly the best overall defender in America with Caleb Downs at safety.
Game prediction
I love to look for "strength vs. strength" positional matchups in these weekly previews. This game has it at virtually every position. This truly has the statistical look of a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup, but Ohio State is still the champ until proven otherwise.
Ohio State is on a 16-0 run, with a nation-best 14-1-1 record against-the-spread. They will find their championship gear here and grab the No. 1 overall seed.
Ohio State 27 | Indiana 17
