Pick Six Previews: BYU to face toughest test to date, but grinds out win over Colorado


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PROVO — BYU defeated East Carolina 34-13 Saturday to complete their third straight 3-0 start.

The game was 6-3 in the second quarter when Evan Johnson intercepted a Katin Houser pass at the goal line to prevent a tie or East Carolina lead. Then on Houser's next pass on the next possession, Johnson, again, jumped the route to intercept the pass and hop in for a 1-yard pick six.

BYU then added on three more touchdown drives in the second-half to pull away.

Bear Bachmeier is now 3-0 as a true freshman starter, LJ Martin added 101 rushing yards, and BYU's defense continued its non-touchdown streak into its 12th quarter until finally East Carolina scored one late in the game. The strong defensive effort kept BYU at its No. 1 spot in many national stat rankings.

BYU opens Big 12 play with a road trip to Colorado, in a rematch of BYU's decisive 36-14 Alamo Bowl win in December (8:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): BYU 49.3 (36th of 68 Power 4) | Colorado 36.9 (62nd)
2024 season: BYU 70.0 (10th) | Colorado 62.4 (19th)
2025 season: BYU 60.3 (29th) | Colorado 44.9 (53rd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish eighth in a wide-open Big 12 race. Meanwhile, I projected Colorado to finish 10th in the Big 12, a major step back from their nine-win 2024 season with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter now in the pros.

Colorado opened up with a close loss to now-ranked Georgia Tech (27-20), won their other two nonconference games against non-AQ teams Delaware (31-7) and Wyoming (37-20), and lost their Big 12 opener at Houston (36-20). They have fallen six spots from their preseason rank to 53rd of 68 Power Four teams.

BYU with the ball

(Rankings out of 136 FBS teams)

BYU offense: 41.3 points/game (23rd), 6.5 yards/carry (11th), 7.9 yards/attempt (57th)
Colorado defense: 22.5 points/game (66th), 4.6 yards/carry (99th), 8 yards/attempt (108th)

Bachmeier posted his best passing game yet, going 18-of-25 for 246 yards and a high 9.8 yards per attempt against East Carolina. He has looked poised beyond his age as a true freshman Power Four starter.

Against East Carolina, he also took several designed runs, even converting a third-and-14 on a quarterback draw, and running another one in for a touchdown. Defensive coordinators now have to allocate extra resources to that mobility.

Martin continues to impress, and leads the entire Big 12 in rushing yards per game (114) and is fourth in per-carry average with a high 8.6 yards. East Carolina's defense was supposed to be a formidable test, but BYU outgained East Carolina's season per-play average by a full 2.2 yards per play.

Colorado's defense was one of the Big 12's best last season, but they lost the entire secondary, a starting linebacker, and some of their top-rated pass rush. They returned enough in the front seven to project as a strength for 2025 in the preview magazine, but so far they have not lived up to the expectation.

Georgia Tech rushed for 320 yards — including the 45-yard touchdown by quarterback Haynes King in the final minute — and then Houston rolled up 209 rushing yards.

Colorado is 123rd in rushing defense (out of 136 FBS teams), and not much better (99th) on a per-carry basis. Look for Martin, Bachmeier, and BYU's offensive line to stay committed to the ground game and win this matchup for BYU.

Colorado with the ball

(Rankings out of 136 FBS teams)

Colorado offense (2025): 27 points/game (83rd), 4.6 yards/carry (67th), 7.6 yards/attempt (67th)
BYU defense (2025): 5.3 points/game (1st), 1.6 yards/carry (1st), 5.1 yards/attempt (12th)

As I wrote last week, it would be unfair to expect BYU's "video game numbers" to continue on defense — 100 yards per game and 2 yards per play are pre-World War II era averages — but BYU's defense made the two most important plays of the game.

Actually, Johnson made them both, as his first goal-line pick took points off the board for East Carolina, and then his second one added 7 points for BYU.

With his son off to the pros, Deion Sanders added one of the highest-rated transfers in multi-year Liberty starter Kaidon Salter, and added a near-five star recruit in Julian Lewis. The starting spot is still unsettled, and the quarterback carousel is the headline story each week.

First, Sanders was giving them each multiple series in the game. Then, in the third game, he announced it was actually third-stringer Ryan Staub who was their QB1. Last week, he flipped back to Salter, who proceeded to toss three touchdowns, 303 yards, and he also led the team in rushing with 86 yards and a score.

If that performance doesn't lock up the job, nothing will.

With Salter under center, this Colorado offense is more stable. Their offensive line has been a liability throughout the Sanders era and was finally making some gains, but now faces injury uncertainties, including their five-star tackle Jordan Seaton. BYU's front seven wins this trench battle, but I do see Colorado hitting some explosive pass plays.

Game prediction

Despite being one of BYU's five closest FBS schools on the map, Colorado and BYU have only played three times since 1947. BYU has won all three, with the Alamo Bowl as a statement victory to cap an 11-win campaign.

BYU will win with its physicality, an advantage that is bolstered further due to Colorado's injuries on both lines, and the first-half suspension of their star defensive tackle Anquin Barnes. This will be BYU's toughest test yet, but they will grind out another win.

BYU 27 | Colorado 21

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Brett Ciancia, Pick Six PreviewsBrett Ciancia
Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.
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