Pick Six Previews: After 2 near-perfect games, BYU's season projection has shifted

PROVO — BYU opened up the 2025 season with consecutive wins before its first bye week.

First, they destroyed FCS Portland State 69-0 and held them to just 51 total yards — the program's best since 1964.

Then, last week, BYU passed their first Power Four test, beating Stanford 27-3 with a +171 yardage margin.

Two games, two dominant wins, and now the projections are sliding in BYU's direction.

As we pause the weekly game previews for BYU's bye week, we'll look back at their progress in the key stat categories I identified in the preseason, as well as look at their new projected game results via Pick Six PLUS.

Scoring defense

2024: 18th of 134 FBS teams
2025: 1st of 136 FBS teams

The defensive surge last year was the main driver behind one of BYU's best seasons in school history. With significant roster turnover this offseason, I wondered how BYU would rebuild and attempt to maintain those high standards.

So far, defensive coordinator Jay Hill has aced the test. BYU dealt Portland State a shutout, and continued the shutout streak into the fourth quarter against Stanford.

Their 1.5 points/game is the No. 1-ranked scoring defense in America. Bigger tests are coming soon, but BYU could not have started any better on this side of the ball.

QB rating

2024: 63rd of 134 FBS teams
2025: 65th of 136 FBS teams

Touchdown-interception ratio

2024: 93rd of 134 FBS teams
2025: 48th of 136 FBS teams

BYU's offseason took a hit after spring ball with the departure of starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff. Instead of a second-year starter bonus, to hopefully improve on QB rating and the TD-INT ratio, BYU had to start from scratch at the most important position.

Bear Bachmeier became the first true freshman to start the season opener in BYU history, and he has exceeded expectations so far. Coordinator Aaron Roderick has kept the play-calling fairly conservative, allowing the freshman to grow into the new role.

Bachmeier is 24-of-38 for 272 yards; and most importantly, a perfect 3-0 TD-INT ratio.

Offensive line run push

2024: 31st of 134 FBS teams
2025: 12th of 136 FBS teams

After an offensive line collapse in 2023, new line coach TJ Woods led a major turnaround last season. BYU moved up nearly 100 spots in my offensive line run Push metric, from 123rd in 2023 all the way up to 31st last year.

BYU needed to find three new full-time starters in fall camp, and the reload at this position unit is critical for their 2025 outlook. We will learn more about the offensive line once Big 12 plays heats up, but they have done their job so far with a No. 12 OL run push rank.

Defensive negative play rate

2024: 91st of 134 FBS teams
2025: 4th of 136 FBS teams

For years, the BYU defensive scheme had been extra conservative and safe, and often dropped eight players into pass coverage. The goal was to limit explosive, long-yardage plays, but that also meant a lack of blitzing and pressure on the quarterback.

No other stat represents this better than my negative play rate, which tracks how frequently the defense is making disruptive plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. When Sitake hired Hill in 2023, he wanted to bring a whole new mindset, and scheme, to Provo.

Hill's aggressive, attacking defensive scheme helped Weber State post five straight top-25 defenses at the FCS level.

Two games in, BYU has a negative play rate of 17% — those are "video game" numbers. That means BYU is making a tackle for loss, or sack, on nearly one in five plays. Surely that pace will slow down against Big 12 competition, but it's a fast start.

Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly both earned preseason All-Big 12 honors in the Pick Six Previews magazine, and both have 2.5 tackles for loss and have lived up to the hype.

2025 schedule projection (via Pick Six PLUS)

After two near-perfect games, BYU's season projection has shifted. They are now projected as the favorite in six remaining games, which would project an 8-4 record.

Three more are projected within 2 points, firmly in the "toss-up" zone. The road trip to Big 12 contender Texas Tech is the only underdog spot of more than a field goal. These projections are shifting each week at Pick Six PLUS as new game data comes in.

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