Pick Six Previews: Despite poor 2024 season, Utah is a legitimate contender in 2025

SALT LAKE CITY — The best time of year is upon us. It's an honor to be back at KSL.com with my weekly in-season role covering both Utah and BYU.

The 14th annual Pick Six Previews season preview magazine was released in July, and I have Utah selected as a top-25 team. Over those 14 years, this Big 12 race is the most wide-open conference I have ever previewed, and Utah joins a crowded field of league contenders.

Of course, given the 12-team playoff's rules, an automatic bid is at stake for the Power Four conference winners. While I have selected Arizona State and Texas Tech as the picks to play for the title in Dallas, Utah is a legitimate contender.

Utah's resurgent season, and potential Big 12 title run, could hinge on a few key stat categories like the ones analyzed here. For more position-by-position breakdowns, advanced stats, coordinator grades, and trends, check out the full magazine.

Offensive stats

• QB Rating: 114th of 134 FBS teams in 2024
• Pass yards/attempt: 111th
• TD/INT ratio: 113th
• Sack rate: 76th
• Rushing yards/carry: 94th
• Rushing yards/game: 98th

Injuries were a central theme to the 2023 Utah football season, and again in 2024 they struck the quarterback room. Starter Cam Rising hurt his hand in the second game, and the position room eventually fell to its fifth-string quarterback.

The key storyline to the entire Utah program in 2025 is Kyle Whittingham's hire of Jason Beck, the brains behind New Mexico's No. 1-rated rushing attack. While the scheme is run-heavy, Utah still needs major upgrades at quarterback compared to their stat outputs in 2023 and 2024.

Beck brought his starter with him and Devon Dampier rolled up 3,934 total yards and 31 touchdowns last year — 1,184 of those yards were on the ground.

Dampier will need to improve on passing accuracy and decision-making after a flat 12-12 touchdown-to-pick ratio last year. In a conference filled with one-score games, Dampier's ball control could flip several decisions.

Sack rate

Last year, the Utah offensive line allowed a sack on 7% of pass attempts, which fell below the national average; however, sacks can be a shared stat between the line and the quarterback. With inexperienced backups playing most of the season, both units were to blame.

Look for a major improvement in this category, and Utah may even push into the national top five here.

The offensive line returned their entire starting lineup and two-deep, with multiple guys earning high NFL draft projections. Dampier instantly improves the other side of this stat, with the nation's No. 1 pocket elusiveness last year. He was pressured 100 times but was only sacked four times thanks to electric scrambling ability.

Rushing yards

Dampier's mobility at quarterback, coupled with an improved offensive line, should help lead another major improvement here in the run game. Dampier was a 1,000-yard rusher last year at New Mexico and added 520 yards after contact. If the pocket breaks down he will continue to burn defenses with his legs.

Beck's offense last year averaged 6.7 yards per carry, which led the entire nation, and their 254 rushing yards per game almost doubled Utah's rushing output and trailed only Army for the national lead.

The scheme is run-heavy with motion and misdirection. The play-calling split will tilt even further to the run, at least early on, because almost all pass-catchers from 2024 have departed — even the spring No. 1 receiver, Zacharyus Williams, surprisingly departed for USC.

For Utah to contend for a Big 12 title, they need to dominate with a consistent, productive rushing attack.

Defensive stats

• Opponent-adjusted rush defense: 37th of 68 Power Four teams in 2024
• Yards/carry: 42nd

One of the staples of Morgan Scalley's defense is the elite rush defense every year. The 2023 season was no different, as they held the No. 1 spot at times before the injury run. But they saw a significant decline in 2024 and dropped all the way to below average in my opponent-adjusted rushing metric.

For 2025, Utah loses five of its top six defensive linemen, including the pass rush combo of Van Fillinger and Connor O'Toole, as well as space-eating nose tackles Junior Tafuna, Simote Pepa and Keanu Tanuvasa.

Logan Fano and linebacker Lander Barton earned spots on my All-Big 12 team, but this front seven will have plenty of new faces this fall. Scalley's ability to reload in the trenches is a pivotal area for 2025.

2025 Pick Six Previews Magazine superlatives

• National preseason rank: 22nd
• Big 12 rank: 4th
• Spencer Fano (OL): 1st Team, All-Big 12; 1st Team, All-American
• Caleb Lomu (OL): 2nd Team, All-Big 12
• Lander Barton (LB): 2nd Team, All-Big 12
• Smith Snowden (DB): 2nd Team, All-Big 12
• Tanoa Togiai (OL): 3rd Team, All-Big 12
• Logan Fano (DE): 3rd Team, All-Big 12
• Devon Dampier (QB): Big 12 All-Transfer Team
• Offensive line: 1st in Big 12, 11th nationally
• Linebackers: 2nd in Big 12, 11th nationally
• Defensive backs: 2nd in Big 12
• Defensive line: 4th in Big 12

Related topics