- Great Salt Lake's southern arm has fallen to 4,192.1 feet elevation, threatening the lake's ecosystem.
- State officials worry about drought's impact on the lake and water supply.
- Salinity levels still remain healthy, benefiting brine shrimp and brine flies.
Editor's note: This article is published through the Great Salt Lake Collaborative, a solutions journalism initiative that partners news, education and media organizations to help inform people about the plight of the Great Salt Lake.
SALT LAKE CITY — Great Salt Lake levels often shift, leaving layers of what's good, OK, bad and really bad.
But after back-to-back years of optimism, lake levels have fallen back down to the top of what's considered "really bad," according to the leader of the state agency tasked with overseeing the lake's recovery.
"In truth, we're really sitting at a scary-low level because we're sitting at about what we were when we were trending into those lowest levels we had ever seen in 2022," said Brian Steed, Utah's Great Salt Lake commissioner, as he briefed reporters on the lake's conditions Tuesday.
The lake's southern arm has receded to an elevation of 4,192.1 feet amid this summer's hot and dry conditions. It's down 1½ feet below this year's peak, and its current levels are at the beginning of what the state considers the "serious adverse effects" range of the lake's health.
Brine shrimp viability, mineral production and recreation are all threatened when the lake falls to 4,192 feet elevation or lower. At the same time, lower elevation also exposes more of its dried lakebed, leaving communities prone to dust storms that lower air quality, the state's Great Salt Lake Strategic Plan explains.
The arm's current level is also the same as last year's lowest point, but that was recorded in October, at the end of the lake's normal drop during the summer and early fall. That's concerning because it's not even August yet, Steed adds.
While his office doesn't have an official projection, he estimates the lake may drop another foot or more by the end of the irrigation season if drought conditions persist the way they have so far this summer.
Long-range forecasts suggest that it could happen. There's no clear signal as to whether Utah will have a drier, wetter, or near-normal August, but current odds lean slightly in favor of drier and hotter conditions over the next three months, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. All of the state is in drought and nearly 60% of the state is in severe drought or worse, and those conditions could worsen should that outlook come to fruition.
Great Salt Lake isn't alone in taking a sharp tumble. Utah's reservoir system has dropped to 73%, down 13 percentage points since the end of June. State water officials voiced their concerns about that earlier this month, pointing out that the system normally dips just two percentage points between June and July.
While levels are still healthy, the largest concern is whether Utah is entering another long-term drought cycle that could threaten availability in the future. Gov. Spencer Cox also urged residents to cut back on water consumption as drought conditions have worsened, telling them it's OK to have yellow lawns this summer.
"We all have a role in conserving water," he said. "Every gallon saved really does make a difference."
Great Salt Lake's 'silver lining'
Yet, Steed still sees a "silver lining" in the Great Salt Lake's current conditions.
Salinity levels within its southern arm remain at 116 grams per liter, which is considered healthy. Those levels are also slightly lower than last fall and considerably lower than the 144 grams per liter recorded on April 1, 2023, which was the previous time the lake was listed around 4,192.5 feet before last October, per federal data.
This is particularly good news for brine shrimp and brine flies, which are vital for the millions of migratory birds that call the lake home and the global fish economy, as both rely heavily on the two species.
"Just based on brine fly production (and) brine shrimp production, it seems to be that we're holding steady," he said. "If we continue into drought over longer time horizons, we could see that changing."
The lower salinity levels seem to indicate that policy decisions to improve salinity levels are working, Steed adds. The state raised a berm to separate the lake's southern and northern arms when the saltier northern arm seeped into the southern arm as the lake dropped to a record-low 4,188.5 feet elevation in 2022.
Utah leaders have since allowed water to flow into the northern arm, which is now at 4,191.7 feet elevation. That flow will be stopped again should the southern arm drop to 4,190 feet elevation. It's a decision that Steed says likely won't have to be made this year, but could happen soon if the lake's situation doesn't improve.
More drastic impacts of a lower lake could also return by then.
