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- The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-average temperatures in the U.S., especially the West.
- Wildfire risk will increase in Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado.
- Human activity drives global warming, worsening air quality and increasing pollution-related health risks.
SALT LAKE CITY — The Climate Prediction Center recently released its June, July and August forecast, indicating that temperatures will likely soar above seasonal averages throughout the United States, especially affecting the West.
Every year, as fires grow in size and intensity, risk also grows. While human activity is responsible for starting about 90% of all American wildfires, it takes ripe conditions like heat and drought to sustain the fire.
In particular, wildfire risk in the West will jump over the spring and summer, including in Southern California; all of Arizona and New Mexico; the majority of Utah, including all of southern Utah; and southern Colorado.
At the moment, the National Weather Service forecasts drought conditions and climbing heat across Utah.
Warming trends over the last several decades
Average temperatures have risen across the contiguous 48 states since 1901, with the rate growing since the late 1970s. Nine of the top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998, per the Environmental Protection Agency.
As the Earth warms up, shifts in weather become more dramatic, including more intense storms (like the ones currently crisscrossing the Midwest), more intense rains and floods, and more intense droughts when they do come.
The EPA indicates that human activity is the dominant driver of global warming. The Industrial Revolution incited an explosion in cars, trains, planes, boats, mining, drills, manufacturing and more that spiked greenhouse gas emissions. As carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide pool in the atmosphere, more and more heat from the sun becomes trapped, meaning the Earth slowly warms.
According to the American Lung Association, nearly 46% of Americans, or 156.1 million people, live in areas with failing air quality grades. Regulations like the Clean Air Act, which was implemented in the 1970s, improved and continue to improve air quality across the nation but not enough to stifle the creep of pollution across the United States.
Pollution levels are highest in cities, including in Fresno, Bakersfield and Los Angeles in California; Phoenix, Arizona; and Dallas, Texas.
In 2024, the American Lung Association ranked Salt Lake City as the ninth worst city for ozone air quality and 19th worst for short-term particle pollution. Logan was ranked 21st for short-term particle pollution. Utah researchers also found that air pollution causes thousands of premature deaths each year — anywhere from 2,500 to 8,000 — and also costs billions of dollars in taxpayer money annually.
