Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SAN ANTONIO — Four teams finished atop the Big 12 final standings, but as a result of tiebreakers, Arizona State and Iowa State were selected to play in the conference title.
The two tiebreaker runner-ups, BYU and Colorado, will meet in Texas after all — at San Antonio's Alamo Bowl Saturday night (5:30 p.m. MST, ABC).
While this one may not have a conference crown or playoff bid on the line, it will surely draw a national audience thanks to BYU's big fan base, Colorado's star power, and their 19-5 combined record. BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff even dubbed it "the people's Big 12 title."
Win milestones are also at stake. BYU won 11-plus games 11 times over the 30-year window (1979-09), but has done so just once since then. Colorado is in search of their 10th win, a milestone they have reached just eight times in school history.
The contrast in program styles will be fascinating as Colorado's Deion Sanders took on the most aggressive transfer rebuild in college football history, while BYU remains committed to the longer-term player development culture. This will be a must-watch bowl game.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Colorado 24.3 (69th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Colorado 37.5 (55th)
2024 season: BYU 67.9 (14th) | Colorado 67.0 (15th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
BYU shattered all preseason expectations with its 10-2 season, and even with the close losses to Kansas and Arizona State they remain in the top 15.
Sanders' unprecedented roster overhaul via the transfer portal saw some growing pains in 2023, but in his encore season they flipped that 3-9 record around to 9-3. They currently rank 15th in 2024 Game Grader — one spot behind BYU — and is Colorado's best grade since 2016.
Colorado with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Colorado offense (2024): 41st of 70 Power Four (8th passing, 69th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 14th of 70 Power Four (4th passing, 31st rushing)
Colorado features one of the most pass-heavy offenses in America, and with good reason. This scheme plays to their strengths — dynamic quarterback Shedeur Sanders and a deep arsenal of receivers — and mitigates their weakness at offensive line.
The line is one of the few in America to rank 100th or worse in both my pass protection sack rate and my OL run push metrics. But that hasn't stopped them from putting up a historic passing season and amplifying Travis Hunter's two-way Heisman campaign.
Hunter is the headliner on the outside with 1,152 receiving yards (7th nationally), 14 touchdowns, and impact plays all season. LaJohntay Wester (880 yards), Will Sheppard (617) and Jimmy Horn (434) make this position group one of the best in the entire nation.
While Hunter won the Heisman, Sanders had a trophy-caliber season himself. With no help from his offensive line, the elusive dual-threat QB did it all and eventually finished in the national top five in several key categories: QB rating, passing touchdowns, and yards per game. He even led the nation outright with his 74.2% completion rate.
It will be strength on strength when Colorado is passing the ball, as they face off against the No. 4 passing defense per my opponent-adjusted Game Grader formula. BYU held all 12 opposing passing offenses below their season averages in the all-encompassing QB rating, and have top-20 marks in all my key pass defense numbers.
In terms of bowl opt-outs, transfers, and injuries, it appears the lone loss to BYU's starting defense is the departure of safety Crew Wakely. For Colorado, Sanders stated he expects everyone to play, and Hunter and Shedeur Sanders took out record-setting "bowl injury insurance" policies.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 31st of 70 Power Four (47th passing, 24th rushing)
Colorado defense (2024): 10th of 70 Power Four (25th passing, 13th rushing)
BYU's passing attack has regressed as the season unfolded. Over the first six games, they ranked in the top 40 in my opponent-adjusted passing metric, but the last six games they performed at a bottom 10 clip.
Retzlaff did finish sixth in the Big 12 in QB rating but is 12th in both completion percentage and picks thrown.
The Colorado offense is flashy and gets the headlines, but the defensive turnaround was an even bigger driver of their success. In the offseason, they attacked the transfer portal and brought in several Power Four starters to the defensive line.
The plan worked, and Colorado rose all the way to 10th nationally in my overall defense number, and 25th in negative play rate, showing the frequency of plays made behind the line of scrimmage. Statistically, this is the toughest defense BYU has faced all season.
In terms of bowl opt-outs and transfers, the only starter gone here is Colorado's linebacker Nikhai Hill-Green who signed with Alabama. Injury-wise, the BYU offensive line tackles Brady Keim and Isaiah Jatta both missed games in November and are not listed on the bowl depth chart.
Game prediction
Aside from the playoff games, this is the bowl game I am most excited to watch. The full-season Game Grader formula has this as a virtual pick'em, so I focused in on the recent performances.
In the second half of the season, BYU is 4-2 and their four wins have an average margin of victory of 7.2. Colorado is 5-1, with an average win margin of 26. In a Game Grader "tie," I'll side with the momentum pick.
Colorado 30 | BYU 20
