Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — The best time of year is upon us.
It's an honor to be back at KSL.com with my weekly in-season role covering both Utah and BYU. The Pac-12's collapse has sent the two rivals back on a collision course, now conference mates in the newly expanded Big 12.
The 13th annual Pick Six Previews season preview magazine released in July, and I have Utah projected to win their new conference. Of course, given the playoff bracket's expansion from four to twelve teams, the new rules call for an automatic bid — and first-round bye — to the Power Four conference winners.
I have Utah emerging in a crowded league, earning the No. 3 playoff bid, and facing the winner of Alabama and Oregon in the national quarterfinals.
Utah's Big 12 title run, and potential playoff berth, could hinge on a few key stat categories like the ones analyzed here. For more position-by-position breakdowns, advanced stats, coordinator grades, and trends, check out the full magazine.
QB Rating 105th (of 133 FBS teams in 2023)
Pass yards/attempt: 99th
Offensive Explosive Passing: 106th
Injuries were the central theme to the 2023 Utah football season, and the losses at quarterback altered the entire offense.
Starter Cam Rising was injured, along with several backups, throughout the season and the passing attack suffered. I combined these three key passing stats to show how far the offense fell without Rising.
With Rising's return for 2024, this room flips back from liability to asset. Rising won two Pac-12 titles, opens up the vertical passing game, can tuck the ball to run when needed, and brings winning instincts back to the offense.
Both of last year's quarterbacks, Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson, are gone, but the original backup, Brandon Rose, returns and the staff was very impressed with four-star signee Isaac Wilson.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play offense: 65th (of 70 Power Four teams in 2023)
The problem started with the quarterback injuries, but it ended up limiting the offense in all facets.
Utah fell all the way to the bottom five of my opponent-adjusted, per-play metric with a broken passing offense and predictable run game. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig posted top-20 marks in this same stat in 2019 and 2021, and thus he deserves a mulligan year due to extremely poor injury luck.
Rising is back, so is my preseason third team All-America tight end, the do-it-all Brant Kuithe, so is veteran running back Micah Bernard.
This time around, the staff added a true No. 1 receiving threat to stretch the field vertically. Wide receiver Dorian Singer earned Big 12 All-Transfer team accolades after posting a 1,100-yard season at Arizona in 2022.
Look for Utah to end up as one of the most improved offenses in America from 2023 to 2024 — from the bottom five to the top 25.
Opponent-adjusted rush defense: 8th (of 70 Power Four teams in 2023)
Yards/carry: 9th
Morgan Scalley's unit played elite rushing defense last year and actually carried the No. 1 ranking into October before being worn down by injuries. Still, it was a top-10 unit with all-conference contenders on each level of the defense.
Look for this dominance in the trenches to continue in 2024 and set the tone for another dominant unit. They do lose All-American Jonah Elliss, but two All-Big 12 caliber linemen return in Junior Tafuna and Van Fillinger.
Returning production, defense: 32nd (of 133 FBS for 2024)
I have been calling it the "Boomerang Effect" for Utah this year. The two-deep lost 157 collective games to injury last year for the worst injury run I have ever covered. Now, most of those original injured starters return to Salt Lake City, plus all those younger guys that were thrown into action ahead of schedule now return as veterans.
This defense will be one of the nation's best.
2024 Pick Six Previews magazine superlatives
- National preseason rank: 8th
- Big 12 rank: 1st
- Quarterbacks: 5th in Big 12; 12th nationally
- Wide receivers/Tight ends: 2nd in Big 12; 14th nationally
- Offensive line: 4th in Big 12
- Defensive line: 1st in Big 12; 9th nationally
- Linebackers: 1st in Big 12; 6th nationally
- Defensive backs: 2nd in Big 12
- Brant Kuithe, TE: 1st team, All-Big 12; 3nd Team, All-America
- Dorian Singer, WR (USC & Arizona): 2nd team, All-Big 12; Big 12 All-Transfer Team
- Michael Mokofisi, OL: 1st team, All-Big 12
- Spencer Fano, OL: 2nd team, All-Big 12
- Junior Tafuna, DL: 1st team, All-Big 12; 4th Team, All-America
- Van Fillinger, DL: 2nd team, All-Big 12
- Lander Barton, LB: 1st team, All-Big 12; 4th Team, All-America
- Karene Reid, LB: 1st team, All-Big 12
- Zemaiah Vaughn, DB: 2nd team, All-Big 12
