Utah, other Colorado River Basin states far from 'consensus' on Lake Powell, Lake Mead future

Bullfrog Marina and the upper reaches of Lake Powell are pictured on July 22, 2022. The Upper and Lower Colorado River Basin states on Tuesday and Wednesday submitted differing long-term plans to manage Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

Bullfrog Marina and the upper reaches of Lake Powell are pictured on July 22, 2022. The Upper and Lower Colorado River Basin states on Tuesday and Wednesday submitted differing long-term plans to manage Lake Powell and Lake Mead. (Spenser Heaps, Deseret News)


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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah and the other Colorado River Basin states are looking toward the long-term future for Lake Powell and Lake Mead as the federal government nears the implementation of an emergency plan to protect the two massive reservoirs in the short term.

But the two sides certainly don't see eye to eye.

The Upper Colorado River Basin states — Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming — submitted their post-2026 proposal for the reservoirs to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation on Tuesday. It was filed the same day that the bureau and Department of the Interior released a final impact statement for a short-term plan to reduce consumption of the river by at least 3 million acre-feet through the end of 2026.

Not to be outdone, the Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — offered a competing proposal on Wednesday.

"At this point, the seven Basin States have been unable to agree on a consensus alternative," the three Lower Basin states wrote in a letter to the bureau, adding that they are willing to work with the Upper Basin states and other entities, though.

What the plans offer

The Upper Basin's proposed long-term alternative suggests no water release reductions when Lake Powell or Lake Mead are full on Oct. 1 every year, but:

  • Lake Powell would be limited to 8.1 to 9 million acre-feet per year when it's between 81% and 100% full. It would be reduced further to 6 to 8.1 million acre-feet per year when it's between 20% and 81% full. It would also be capped at 6 million acre-feet per year when the reservoir is lower than 20% full.
  • Lake Mead consumption, on the other hand, would also not be reduced at all if it's above 90% full. Consumption would be reduced by 0 to 1.5 million acre-feet per year when it's between 70% and 90% full, and 1.5 million acre-feet per year when it's between 20% and 70% full. Consumption would be reduced by more than 1.5 million acre-feet per year when it's under 20% full.

Upper Basin officials say they believe their plan will help both reservoirs from reaching "dead pool" status, and that it is "consistent with the law of the river." They say it also takes into account the potential impacts of climate change, an "existing imbalance" between water supply and demand, and even hydrologic shortages in the Upper Basin that could impact water flow into the two reservoirs.

They note that their proposed Lake Mead operations were drawn up from a concept originally proposed by the Lower Basin states.

Gene Shawcroft, CEO of the Colorado River Authority of Utah, adds that the plan also takes into account contributions from the Upper Basin states, including voluntary conservation programs, and releases from Colorado River Storage Project Act units. He believes this shows the Upper Basin's desire to contribute to the future of both reservoirs.

"This is a pivotal moment for Utah and the entire Upper Basin. Our proposal represents a balanced approach for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, combining immediate action with long-term planning to ensure the sustainability of these crucial reservoirs," he said in a statement Wednesday. "It's about adapting to the realities we face today and securing a water-resilient future for our region."

Officials listen during a news conference on Lake Mead at the Hoover Dam on April 11, 2023, near Boulder City, Nevada. The reservoir remains about 37% full.
Officials listen during a news conference on Lake Mead at the Hoover Dam on April 11, 2023, near Boulder City, Nevada. The reservoir remains about 37% full. (Photo: John Locher, Associated Press)

The Lower Basin states agree that there should be cuts on their end when the reservoirs are low; however, they believe the Upper Basin should share a bit of the burden so more water can flow into the two reservoirs. Their plan states:

  • Cut Lower Basin water uses from 0 to 1.5 million acre-feet when reservoirs are 58% to 69% full.
  • Static cut to Lower Basin water uses of 1.5 million acre-feet when they are 38% to 58% full.
  • Static cut to Lower Basin water uses of 1.5 million acre-feet plus additional, evenly split cuts to Upper Basin and Lower Basin water uses as total system reductions increase from 1.5 million acre-feet to 3.9 million acre-feet.
  • Reductions would remain at 3.9 million acre-feet when they are below 23%.

"Most fundamentally, this framework commits stakeholders to the simple principle that when less water is available in the system, less water should be taken from the system," the Lower Basin states wrote.

They add that releases from Lake Powell should range from 8.5-11 million acre-feet when the reservoir is greater than 80% full to 6 million acre-feet when it is at or below 20% capacity.

The process going forward

While both reservoirs experienced large jumps from last year's strong snowpack and could be in line for another boost this spring, both are currently at less than 40% capacity. Federal leaders are optimistic that the short-term solution will keep both of them out of low levels that could harm operations at the Glen Canyon and Hoover dams.

The Department of the Interior and the Bureau of Reclamation are at the beginning stages of the post-2026 planning process, according to Laura Daniel-Davis, acting deputy secretary for the Interior. All of the Colorado River Basin states and other major Colorado River users were encouraged to submit long-term plans by March.

However, federal leaders are well aware of the challenges ahead, such as the longstanding disagreements between the states and how the Colorado River is managed. It took months before all seven states agreed on the short-term plan as that process played out.

"We are not expecting every single issue to be smoothed out between the Upper and Lower basins tomorrow, but ... we are all committed to a basin-wide solution," she said on Tuesday. "We'll continue to work collaboratively through any major sticking points until a consensus has been reached."

The agencies will collect all of the proposals and work on a draft environmental impact statement beginning this month, Daniel-Davis said. She added a long-term plan will be developed "collaboratively, transparently and inclusively" with input from all of the states, tribal nations, irrigators and other major water users. This will also include Mexico, which also has water rights to the river.

A draft version of the plan is expected to be released by the end of the year.

Colorado River Authority of Utah officials said Wednesday that while they support the Upper Basin plan, they are also "committed" to completing a plan supported by all seven states.

"Collaboration remains key," Shawcroft said. "We are committed to working alongside the lower division states of Arizona, California and Nevada to address shared challenges."

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Carter Williams is a reporter for KSL.com. He covers Salt Lake City, statewide transportation issues, outdoors, the environment and weather. He is a graduate of Southern Utah University.
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