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PROVO — After notching two Big 12 wins and racing to a 5-2 overall start, reality has set in for the BYU football program.
The step up in competition in their Power Five transition season is starting to catch up and wear down both sides of the ball. Since that 5-2 start, BYU has lost their last two games by a combined score of 72-13. The 37-7 loss at West Virginia Saturday was never competitive.
Rare bright spots were wiped away by penalty or by mistakes: a kickoff return touchdown was negated by a holding penalty and several dropped passes could have sparked the offense. Against Texas, the defense held up their end of the bargain with key red zone stops and high energy for sixty minutes.
There was none of that against West Virginia, as their powerful offensive line demolished the BYU front seven. The Mountaineers rolled up 336 rushing yards with a high 7.0 per-carry average, and also dumped on 231 passing yards. Aside from West Virginia's FCS game, this was their season-high in yards per play, yards per carry, rushing yards, and QB Rating.
BYU needs a November resurgence to get that all-important sixth win for bowl eligibility. Head coach Kalani Sitake continues to stress its importance to building his program through the Big 12 transition years, and have three opportunities remaining. The final two are against ranked teams, meaning BYU's best shot to get win No. 6 is Saturday as they host 5-4 Iowa State (8:15 p.m. MST, ESPN)
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Iowa State 65.5 (9th)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Iowa State 56.3 (28th)
2023 season: BYU 35.0 (59th of 69 Power Five) | Iowa State 52.6 (33rd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
BYU fell five spots after its decisive loss to West Virginia, which makes it a 13-spot decline from just two weeks ago. They are ranked 59th of 69 Power Five teams in 2023 Game Grader, which is second-worst in the Big 12.
Iowa State had a distraction-packed offseason, starting with a Cy-Hawk rivalry loss to Iowa, and then a no-excuse loss to the MAC's Ohio. Since then, they have been able to notch four Big 12 wins, including current No. 15 Oklahoma State, to remain in the Big 12 title race and place 33rd in Game Grader.
Iowa State with the ball
Iowa State offense: 39th of 69 Power Five (overall), 36th passing, 55th rushing
BYU defense: 49th of 69 Power Five (overall), 39th passing, 63rd rushing
With 336 rushing yards and season-highs in every key offensive metric, West Virginia dominated this BYU defense and caused them to drop nine spots in my defensive ranking.
The absence of star linebacker Ben Bywater is becoming more noticeable each week, but the problem was bigger than just one individual spot Saturday. The defense seemed to lack the fire and high energy they showed earlier in the season.
Sitake noted that all starting jobs are up for grabs this week — a common motivation tactic to try and light a fire under his defensive roster. Either the veterans have to get back to their peak performance, or the young guys need to be given some live playing time.
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht is ranked second among Power Five freshmen in QB Rating and guided them to a perfect 3-0 October — a month Cyclone fans have dubbed "Rocctober."
The biggest weakness of their 2022 team was the offensive line, and head coach Matt Campbell went out and hired a great one from the FCS level in Northern Iowa's Ryan Clanton. So far their performance is an interesting contrast: top five in pass protection (Sack Rate) but bottom five in my OL Run Push metric.
This stat profile matches up better with BYU's relative strengths and weaknesses, compared to the dominant rushing attacks that Texas and West Virginia lined up.
BYU with the ball
BYU offense: 67th of 69 Power Five (overall), 63rd passing, 67th rushing
Iowa State defense: 20th of 69 Power Five (overall), 17th passing, 23rd rushing
Kedon Slovis was knocked out of the lineup due to injury, so backup Jake Retzlaff was given his first opportunity as BYU's starting quarterback. He played fine — 24-of-42 passing, 210 yards, and a low 5.0 per attempt — but got zero help from his surrounding cast. Several balls were dropped, and the pass protection continues to be a problem for BYU, which is surprising given their track record with developing strong offensive lines.
But wait, it gets worse.
The rushing offense is on pace to finish the season under 1,000 rushing yards. For context, that is almost a century low-point, even at a pass-first program like BYU. The last time BYU went a full season under 1,000 rushing yards was 1942.
It won't get any easier Saturday, as Iowa State is in the top 25 of all my defensive metrics. Jon Heacock's dynamic 3-3-3 "dime stack" defense has caused fits for opposing Big 12 offenses for years and was his great equalizer against the modern spread offensive attacks.
On Saturday, BYU struggled against another outlier defense — WVU's 3-3-5 — and this one will pose similar problems.
This side of the ball is a clear advantage for Iowa State.
Game prediction
A full week of "starter" reps will help the development of Retzlaff; regardless, quarterback play doesn't even place on my top five list of BYU concerns right now. This offense needs to rally around their new quarterback, and the defense needs to find that energy and hustle from September and October.
For BYU to win, they need to win the turnover margin decisively. That is a tall order to predict, but it has been their only formula for victory this year. In their five wins they are +12 in turnovers, -5 in the four losses.
Iowa State 30 | BYU 14
