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PROVO — BYU traveled to Fort Worth, Texas, in search of the program's first Big 12 road win, and instead suffered their worst loss since 2017.
TCU raced to a 24-0 lead by returning Kedon Slovis' first pass for a pick six the other way, then forced five straight BYU punts. The 44-11 final score was decisive enough, but the +350 yardage differential paints the picture even more: This was total dominance.
Slovis was held to just 15-of-34 passing for 152 yards, a pick and no touchdowns — his worst game as a BYU Cougar. The worst-rated rushing offense in Power Five remained that way, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry and falling under 100 yards again.
And lastly, the defense came up short in the money spots like third down, where TCU converted a high 12-of-19. First-time starting quarterback Josh Hoover shredded the defense to the tune of 439 yards and four touchdowns.
Back to the drawing board for BYU with six more challenges upcoming. Five of them have winning records, and two are playoff contenders in Oklahoma and Texas. First, BYU returns to Provo to host the 3-4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (5 p.m. MDT, FS1).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Texas Tech 48.1 (43rd Power Five)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Texas Tech 54.2 (30th Power Five)
2023 season: BYU 39.5 (51st of 69 Power Five) | Texas Tech 50.7 (37th Power Five)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
After its 4-1 start, BYU climbed into the top 40, but Saturday's crushing defeat has sent them down 15 spots to No. 51 of 69 Power Five teams. The loss to TCU was BYU's lowest-rated performance in my Game Grader formula since their 2017 season.
Texas Tech found a spark in head coach Joey McGuire, aka Mr. Texas Football, who won state titles at the high school level and has quickly ascended to a Power Five job. They beat Oklahoma and Texas in the same season for the first time ever, won their bowl game, and rode that momentum into 2023.
For the first time since the Mike Leach era, Texas Tech received legit top 25 preseason hype; however they have stumbled out of the gates with a 3-4 record, including losses to Wyoming, West Virginia, Oregon and Kansas State. They check in at No. 37 in 2023 Game Grader so far.
Texas Tech with the ball
Texas Tech offense: 38th of 69 Power Five (overall), 45th passing, 14th rushing
BYU defense: 49th of 69 Power Five (overall), 36th passing, 65th rushing
When I interviewed McGuire two springs ago, he referred to his quarterback battle as 1A, 1B, and 1C — three great options to build an offense around. Due to a transfer and now two injuries, that whole trio is out of the lineup for Saturday.
Veteran starter Tyler Shough suffered another long-term injury — for the third straight season — and backup Behren Morton was knocked out of last Saturday's loss to Kansas State. Freshman Jake Strong was handed the keys to the offense, led a 99-yard touchdown drive, but otherwise struggled against the defending league champions.
Texas Tech has found success in the run game, with a high 5.0 yards per carry, which places fourth in the Big 12, and a top-15 ranking in my opponent-adjusted metric. That is a huge advantage against BYU's bottom five rushing defense, and I expect McGuire to lean heavily on the ground game given the inexperience at quarterback.
After a promising start to the season defensively, the unit regressed against TCU and simply could not stop the Horned Frogs. Given Jay Hill's change in scheme, BYU was expected to blitz more and register more sacks, tackles for loss and disruption in the backfield. That has not materialized, and they are again ranked among the nation's worst in those categories.
BYU with the ball
BYU offense: 69th of 69 Power Five (overall), 59th passing, 69th rushing
Texas Tech defense: 30th of 69 Power Five (overall), 42nd passing, 16th rushing
We knew the run game was struggling since it carried the worst grade in Power Five per my opponent-adjusted metric, but the failures in the pass game — BYU's one productive dimension — were shocking and fully limited the offense Saturday against TCU. Aside from the opening pick six, there were overthrows, miscommunications, and yes, even drops on perfect passes.
The whole thing was out-of-sync, and BYU needs to fix this as quickly as possible.
Chase Roberts had the highlight of the first half, but BYU needs their other skill guys to play to their full potential. Head coach Kalani Sitake noted that running back Aidan Robbins is close to returning to the lineup, but the real underlying problem has been the offensive line's failure to get a run push.
Texas Tech got four key decisions in January from potential NFL-ers who opted to all return to Lubbock for a final college season. In Tim DeRuyter's base 2-4-5 defense, these four were huge additions to the 2023 roster: defensive linemen Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford, and corners Rayshad Williams and Malik Dunlap.
The run defense is currently ranked a strong 16th in my metrics, while the overall unit is above average at 30th of 69 Power Five teams. Advantage: Texas Tech
Game prediction
New quarterback Jake Strong has had a full week to get acclimated to the starting role, and the staff has had time to reshape their offensive scheme. Look for Texas Tech to hammer BYU in the ground game, get a lead, and control the ball.
Tech also has the statistical advantages on defense against a struggling, one-dimensional BYU offense.
Texas Tech 30 | BYU 17
