Utah is still on pace for a cold, wet year — but how long will the stretch continue?

SALT LAKE CITY — As near or above 100-degree temperatures and dry conditions continue to impact Utah this week, it's easy to forget how cold and wet the first half of this year was.

The Beehive State ended up with its 27th-coldest and 13th-wettest first six months, according to new National Centers for Environmental Information data released on Tuesday. The data is the collection of National Weather Service sites all over the state since 1895.

Utah's average first-half temperature ended up at 41.7 degrees Fahrenheit, 1.2 degrees below the 20th-century normal and 3.2 degrees below the average the past three decades. It's the state's coldest first half since it posted an average of 40.4 degrees between January and June in 1984.

The Beehive State hasn't posted a full-year average temperature below the 20th-century normal since 1993.

The state also collected about 9.26 inches of precipitation during the first half of the year. In fact, nearly three-fourths of the state's record snowpack this water year came on Jan. 1 or later, which is above the 30-year median of about 60%, per Natural Resources Conservation Service data.

The first half collection is 2.37 inches above the 20th-century average for the first six months of the year and, more importantly, a reverse of the past three years. Utah averaged 4.06 inches of precipitation between January through June over the past three years, and more precipitation has already been collected this year than the last two first halves combined.

Utah's 2023 running total is also a little more than 2 inches above what was collected throughout all of 2020, which remains the state's driest year on record. The first-half record is 11.65 inches collected in 1980, followed by 11.6 inches in 2019.

This helped ease Utah's drought situation over the course of the past six months. The U.S. Drought Monitor lists about one-tenth of the state in a moderate drought, while another third is considered "abnormally dry." It noted that 99% of Utah was in at least a moderate drought, including nearly one-third in a severe drought or worse at the start of the calendar year.

How Utah ended up with its cold, wet start

This year's cold and wet start is tied to the same stormy pattern that produced the state's record 30-inch snow-water equivalent figure.

Atmospheric river events off the coast of California sent a series of storms toward Utah, which pumped in precipitation, National Weather Service meteorologist Jon Wilson explained. These storm systems typically produce cold air, too, which kept temperatures cooler than usual because there weren't many breaks in the action.

"We saw an incredibly active storm track where we ... had just disturbance after disturbance — it seemed like — over the course of the winter months and into the spring months," he said. "We continuously saw either rain or snow depending on where you were throughout Utah."

Since this pattern continued across most of the state through mid-April, precipitation levels went up and average temperatures went down.

Utah wasn't alone in this trend, either. The first halves in Arizona, California, Colorado and Nevada also landed within each state's 50 coldest and 30 wettest on record, according to the updated National Centers for Environmental Information data.

Every other state in the contiguous United States either had near-normal or above-normal temperatures, including many on the East Coast that either broke records or came close to during the first half of the year. Parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Plains and Mid-Atlantic posted drier-than-normal conditions.

How long will Utah's run last?

The trend of cooler and wetter conditions began to shift a bit by the end of the first half. While last month's average temperature fell below the 20th-century average for June, May ended up 3.1 degrees above the normal. And the last three months combined produced 0.76 inches less precipitation than normal, although that is part of the reason Utah had as much of an efficient snowpack runoff as it did.

Wilson explains that Utah kept receiving storms in April, May and June; however, they weren't as productive in terms of precipitation. Some patterns even prevented high-pressure systems from building up, which kept temperatures generally colder than usual.

Some parts of the state, including Salt Lake City, are actually drier than normal for this point in the calendar year. Utah's capital city entered July having received 9.27 inches of precipitation since Jan. 1, a tenth of an inch below normal. That said, its 14.37 inches of precipitation since the beginning of the water year in October was nearly an inch above the normal heading into July.

Sweltering heat waves are also now impacting the state as the second half of the year begins. KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson said a high-pressure system over the lower Southwest is pushing high temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s across the Wasatch Front and northern Utah through the end of the week. St. George's forecast calls for highs in the 100s and 110s, as well.

The weather service's Climate Prediction Center lists Utah as having more than a 50% probability of having above-normal temperatures to close out the summer. The center's outlook lists most of the state as having "equal chances" when it comes to precipitation because it's still unclear if or when the summer monsoon season will arrive, or how productive it will be.

Utah meteorologists previously warned that the impending switch to an El Niño oceanic pattern can "delay or just generally reduce" monsoon precipitation, based on previous examples of similar pattern changes. This could mean Utah's second half ends up warmer and drier than normal.

But those trends can change because long-range probabilities aren't as strong as a forecast 24 hours in advance.

Wilson says long-range outlooks tend to take into account historic data based on similar oceanic conditions. Since Utah generally has good, bad and normal winters associated with El Niño events, it may be a few more weeks or months to better understand how the second half will end.

"Confidence will increase as we get closer," he said. "It's still one of those things where it can go both ways here in Utah."

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