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OREM — Once anointed as the de facto successor to former President Donald Trump in the Republican party, Ron DeSantis has been having a rough go of it lately.
Polls show the Florida governor trailing Trump by a significant margin, after the two seemed virtually tied in polls late last year, and even Republican legislators in Florida have publicly announced support for Trump. But when DeSantis takes the stage at the Utah Republican Convention in Orem on Saturday, many in the audience will be primed to throw their support behind a conservative who isn't Donald Trump.
Famously, Utah voters have been less enthusiastic about Trump compared to voters in similarly conservative states, and a coalition of 86 politicians in Utah urged DeSantis to run in an open letter last fall, after the GOP's disappointing showing in the midterms.
So, while DeSantis' speech to Utah's Republican delegates Saturday won't win him the nomination, it could help stanch the flow and help put him back on track if he does announce a White House run.
Is DeSantis due for a bounce?
DeSantis has yet to publicly announce an official run, but many pundits believe he's already laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign.
James Curry, a professor of political science at the University of Utah, said the slump DeSantis is in isn't unprecedented, and many up-and-coming political challengers face a similar trajectory. Emerging political figures often get a bump in positive news coverage as their star rises, but over time, attacks from the opposition can erode those good feelings.
"Now that you have Ron DeSantis — circa November, December — he's starting to emerge as sort of a quasi front-runner, everyone else's knives come out," Curry said. "What you're seeing now is the consequence of that, which is you go through a rough period of being under attack, where people are starting to dissect his record and his bio."
DeSantis is now entering a third stage of candidacy, he said, where he will have to overcome the headwinds to prove he's ready for a serious 2024 run.
"For some candidates, that's kind of it for their presidential ambitions, at least in the short term," Curry said. "He has gone through this period where he's been shelled, and this is sort of a crucial moment for Ron DeSantis. Can he weather that storm and reemerge as an actual competitor to Donald Trump, or does he fade away and opposition to Trump has to pivot to some other potential nominee?"
Why Utah might be friendly to DeSantis
Utah voters have shown interest in anti-Trump candidates before, even if some of the more moderate choices — like Senate candidate Evan McMullin — didn't ultimately beat their Trump-aligned foes. But DeSantis is no moderate, and that could help him win over anti-Trump and MAGA voters alike.
Indeed, the letter urging DeSantis to run was signed by some of the most conservative members of the Utah Legislature. DeSantis' reputation will also help him with delegates, who are often more ideological than the median Republican voter in Utah.
"It's not as if DeSantis is some sort of moderate," Curry said. "The appeal of DeSantis initially was that this guy's pretty hardcore. He fights the good conservative fight. ... It's not like he will walk into a conservative convention and not be able to speak their language."
The governor also seems to have relatively strong support from regular voters in Utah. In a March Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll, 21% of voters said they'd pick DeSantis, compared to 16% who favored Trump. Twelve percent picked Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, with the rest split between former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, none of whom cracked double digits.
While no one candidate has managed to coalesce support, the poll suggests support for DeSantis in Utah is as strong — if not stronger — than just about anywhere.
"A visit to Utah ... to try to get a little bit more momentum back on your side is smart, because this is one of those states where if you're going to run against Trump, you can try to line up support early," Curry said. "I see this as potentially meaningful. Even though it's a smaller state, it's a way to refocus attention on parts of the Republican Party that are not terribly enthusiastic about another Trump run."
Opponents criticize DeSantis visit
Not everyone is happy to see the Florida governor visit. Several professors from Utah Valley University — where the convention is being held — penned an op-ed, saying "DeSantis' views on higher and K-12 education are out of sync with UVU's mission and values and run counter to the principle of academic freedom."
The group criticized Florida's HB999, which would prevent state universities from using funds to "promote, support or maintain any programs or campus activities that espouse diversity, equity, or inclusion (DEI) or Critical Race Theory rhetoric." Florida's department of education also rejected an Advanced Placement course on African American studies, and DeSantis has championed a state law described by critics as the so-called "Don't Say Gay" law, which prohibits classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity.
Plans to protest DeSantis at the convention have been shared on social media. A separate UVU professor came under fire from Sen. Mike Lee earlier this week after tweeting plans for a protest that included a picture of DeSantis with a swastika on his face and a message to "show up against fascism." That tweet has since been deleted.
Rob Axson — one of the candidates for Utah Republican Party chair — told KSL NewsRadio he'd like to see the professors bring their students to the convention to observe the process.
"Frankly, a teacher should respect any of their students that gravitate towards what we're selling on Saturday and the things that we're educating folks on just as much as they would support a student who gravitates toward the political left," he said.
What's next?
Whatever happens Saturday, DeSantis will likely have other chances to boost his candidacy down the line. And there probably won't be any immediate changes to his polling numbers, though the visit could pay off down the line.
DeSantis hasn't been able to draw any endorsements because he hasn't officially declared he's running, Curry said, but the governor could be working on lining up supporters who are ready to endorse after an official announcement.
"If he's spending his time here in Utah trying to get people to formally agree to endorse him later, you'll see the impact of having a good day here down the road," he said. "But it's not going to make or break his candidacy right now."
