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PROVO — BYU snapped its four-game losing streak with a thrilling 31-28 win on the blue turf at Boise State. It also ended the 11-year series with Boise State holding a 6-5 advantage, with no future matchups scheduled.
The Cougars were able to respond to each Boise State score and continued to move the ball up and down the field. Despite facing the Broncos' top 10 nationally-ranked defense, BYU managed 377 passing yards and 532 total yards. It was just the third time Boise State's defense has allowed 500 or more yards in its last 60 games — along with the 2020 matchup, two of those three were dealt by BYU.
Red zone struggles held BYU back on the scoreboard as a result of three first-half drives that reached the red zone but ended without points (two interceptions and a failed fourth down). But when it mattered most, with the game on the line, BYU cashed in.
The Cougars faced a fourth-and-goal from the Broncos' 6-yard line, down by 4 points, with under two minutes remaining. Win or lose on one snap. Jaren Hall threw a fade to the back corner of the end zone and Puka Nacua made, arguably, the catch of the season with his acrobatic, toe-tap grab while securing a bobbled ball.
The win brought BYU back to .500 heading into their late bye week. They now have two chances to lock in their bowl-clinching sixth win: Utah Tech and Stanford.
Saturday will be the final home game of the 2022 season and will serve as senior night for up to 37 players on the roster. There are 13 seniors that have exhausted eligibility, and another 24 that are fourth- or fifth-year players that have a choice to make in the offseason. The list of potential departing players is massive and signals a roster turnover as BYU heads into the Big 12 next season.
BYU hosts FCS opponent Utah Tech at 1:30 p.m. MST on BYUtv and ESPN3.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average 2019-21: BYU 61.0 (16th of 66 Power Five) | Utah Tech N/A (FCS)2021 season: BYU 58.1 (24th) | Utah Tech N/A (FCS)2022 season: BYU 43.8 (47th) | Utah Tech N/A (FCS)
After hitting a September high mark of No. 10, BYU has fallen to No. 47 (of 66 Power Five teams) in 2022 Game Grader.
Utah Tech is an FCS team and is not covered by Game Grader. For an FCS context, though, Sagarin Ratings has Utah Tech ranked 61st of the 130 FCS teams in the country. The Trailblazers are riding a three-game winning streak and hold a 4-6 overall record.
Utah Tech with the ball
Quarterback Victor Gabalis has been the key to Utah Tech's three-game win streak. It started with a school record-tying five touchdown passes in their upset win over a ranked Stephen F. Austin squad. Gabalis matched that record again the following week in a 48-36 win over Southern Utah.
On the win streak, Utah Tech has gone slightly pass-heavy with 55% pass play-calling. Gabalis has been near perfect over that span and has tossed 12 touchdowns (just one pick), completed 65% of his passes, and averages 370 yards per game.
Utah Tech's strength will test BYU's statistical weakness with a pass defense ranked just 117th (of 131 FBS teams) in opponent QB rating. Utah Tech may break a few explosive plays, but overall I trust BYU's talent advantage.
It is worth noting that BYU's defense could be missing key linebacker starters due to injury; Payton Wilgar and Max Tooley are listed as questionable at the time of writing.
BYU with the ball
During the bye week, I wrote an article that covered how BYU stacked up in many of my advanced stats so far, and one that stood out was the offensive line's run push. With the entire two-deep returning off a Top 20 unit, I expected BYU to be elite in both pass protection and run push. The sack rate has held up (14th nationally) but the run push is down at 63rd.
With that said, BYU will have the size advantage, strength advantage, and depth advantage in the trenches in this matchup. I expect BYU to control the line of scrimmage, hit a few long-yardage play-action balls, and build an early lead.
I would not be surprised to see a ton of youth and new players getting game reps, too. Perhaps we'll see former four-star recruit Jacob Conover at quarterback for the first meaningful snaps since 2021. With Hall expected to enter the NFL draft, BYU will be in search of a new starting quarterback, and that position battle starts now.
Game prediction
BYU was in desperate need of the bye week to get healthy and continue its transition to Kalani Sitake's defensive strategy and play-calls. The Cougars will clinch a bowl bid and send off their large senior class with a win.
BYU 48 | Utah Tech 17
