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SALT LAKE CITY — Sen. Mitt Romney stayed on the sideline in the Utah Senate race, endorsing neither fellow GOP Sen. Mike Lee nor Republican-turned-independent Evan McMullin.
Romney considers both men friends. Back in March, he said he didn't think endorsements make much of a difference. "I'm not sure my endorsement is a plus or a minus, so maybe that's why no one is asking," he said.
Lee apparently thought it was a plus late in the race when he pleaded on Fox News for Romney to "get on board." And McMullin often invoked Romney's name as the type of senator he would be, not to mention a super PAC's online ads that made it look like Romney was standing right with him.
Romney's support or nonsupport didn't seem to matter in the end. But does the outcome of that race have any bearing on his decision to run for reelection?
Does the Lee victory make him more or less likely to run? Would a McMullin win have played into his thinking? Former President Donald Trump plans to make a "special announcement" next Tuesday. Would his running for president figure into Romney's decision?
One Republican insider says those questions don't have any bearing on whether Romney will run, nor does whether Republicans take one or both chambers in Congress.
What does a nail polish emoji mean?
Romney congratulated Lee along with Utah's four GOP congressmen for their wins in a tweet Tuesday night. "I look forward to continuing our efforts to advance Utah priorities," he said.
Lee thanked Romney in a tweet from his personal account, adding "Will see you soon" followed by the nail polish emoji, which apparently carries a variety of meanings including sass, fanciness, nonchalance, indifference or self-confidence in the digital world.
Thank you, @MittRomney. Will see you soon. 💅
— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) November 10, 2022
Some say it infers pettiness, including McKay Coppins, a BYU grad and reporter at The Atlantic, who tweeted, "Mike Lee, deciding how best to respond to a congratulatory tweet from Mitt Romney, goes with "'petty.'"
Both Lee and Romney say they have a good relationship and collaborate on bills, particularly on Utah issues. But they often part ways on major legislation such as the massive infrastructure and pandemic relief packages that Romney helped negotiate.
Will Mitt Romney run for reelection?
Romney has yet to reveal whether he will seek reelection in 2024.
"With significant challenges facing the country, Sen. Romney is focused on tackling inflation, reining in our national debt, solving the West's water challenges and delivering solutions for the people of Utah in the U.S. Senate," Romney spokeswoman Arielle Mueller said in a statement Friday.
Romney's future plans also draw national interest. He told Politico in 2019 that if he gets everything done in one term he would not look for a second one. "But it's very unlikely," he said then. "So it's far more likely that I'll be here more than one term given the agenda that I have."
Romney, 75, has said he's enjoying his time in the Senate and believes he has been effective, pointing to his bipartisan work on major legislation and delivering on roads, bridges, water, broadband, wildfire prevention and energy research for Utah.
Romney and Lee diverge when it comes to Trump. Lee embraced Trump during his four years in the White House. Romney voted to convict him after his impeachments for abuse of power in 2020 and for inciting the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol in 2021.
Still, when it comes to policy, Romney sided with Trump more often than Lee.
What do the midterm results mean for Mitt Romney?
One Utah politico says he hears regularly — more so since Tuesday's election — from people in the state who are urging Romney to run again because his leadership is needed on many major issues facing Utah and the country.
"Given the election results, voters are looking toward a more positive and effective vision for the GOP and Mitt is well positioned to play a major part in that," the source said.
A Trump endorsement might not carry as much weight as evidenced by the outcome of the midterm elections. The anticipated red wave turned into a trickle with several Trump-backed candidates losing key congressional races. Some Republicans are ready to turn the page on Trump.
But Utahns celebrating with Lee on Tuesday night at the new Hyatt Regency in Salt Lake City don't share Romney's brand of Republicanism. They're probably part of the same crowd calling him a RINO and booing him at state GOP conventions.
"Mike Lee and Mitt Romney share a partisan label, but their bases of support and approaches to representation could hardly be more different," said Chris Karpowitz, co-director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.
Can Romney win a second term?
The challenge for Romney will be securing the Republican nomination, which Karpowitz called an "amazing" statement given he has been the GOP's presidential standard bearer. He said it's an indication of how much the party has changed the past decade.
Winning a GOP primary would depend on whether centrist Republicans counter the likely turnout of Trump-supporting partisans, Karpowitz said. It also depends whether the challenger is a previous office holder with high name recognition, he said.
And if Trump runs, he said, the election turns into a referendum on whether it's a good idea to return him to the White House.
Given the election results, voters are looking toward a more positive and effective vision for the GOP and Mitt is well positioned to play a major part in that.
–Politico source
"Mitt Romney has made clear where he stands on that issue," Karpowitz said.
Romney's approval rating in Utah among all voters hovers around 50%, but drops below that with Republicans.
If Romney does go for a second term, he's certain to again face a primary challenger, which is where the seat would be won or lost. Romney easily dispatched a more conservative Republican preferred by GOP delegates in a closed primary in 2018. And his next GOP opponent would more than likely be running right of him.
Lee's victory proved Utah Republicans are motivated, reliable and clearly in the majority, said Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.
Perry noted that Lee had to fend off more moderate challengers in both the primary and general elections. Romney, he said, will have to run a different campaign while defending his own voting record to the same group of voters.
Who's running for Senate in Utah?
"I guarantee Trump will come up with somebody," Utah Republican Party Chairman Carson Jorgensen told Politico earlier this year. "There's enough vitriol there that no matter if Trump is running for president, he will run a candidate against Romney."
Jorgensen's comment came in a story last March about Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes seriously considering a run for Senate in 2024. Sources say Reyes, a Trump ally, is still actively pursuing a campaign.
Romney again declined to comment about his 2024 plans back then, but sounded unfazed about a possible Reyes challenge.
"That isn't something I'm prepared to decide yet or communicate," he said, according to Politico. "But were I to decide to run again, the best news I could get would be that Sean Reyes was my opponent."
