Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
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PROVO — BYU started fast and rolled to a 50-21 blowout win over South Florida.
Receiver Puka Nacua took an end-around 75 yards for a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage and ran for another one on the next drive. Linebacker Max Tooley jumped a flat pass and took it home for a pick six. After a three-hour weather delay, BYU wasted no time and raced to a 38-0 lead late in the first half.
That fast start and dominant opening win reminds me of when the 2020 team humbled Navy and dealt long-time head coach Ken Niumatalolo the worst loss of his career. It was a complete and total victory for BYU and offered the opportunity for tons of players to get game experience — games like that pay dividends later in the season and beyond.
The schedule difficulty heats up quickly for BYU, as they host the defending Big 12 champions and current No. 9-ranked Baylor on Saturday night at LaVell Edwards Stadium (8:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN). Last season BYU went 6-1 against Power Five opponents, with its lone loss coming against Baylor in Waco (38-24).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
2021 Season: BYU 58.1 (24th) | Baylor 70.7 (6th)
2022 Season: BYU 76.2 (13th) | Baylor (N/A, FCS opponent)
BYU opened with a Top 15 Game Grade by beating AAC's USF by 29 points, with a 300-yard differential. The Cougars rotated in their backups and younger players as early as the start of the second half — otherwise, BYU could have named their score here.
Baylor had a similarly dominant opener — a 59-point win and a 330-yard differential — but it was against an FCS opponent, so it doesn't register with Game Grader formula.
Baylor with the ball
Since its matchup last season, Baylor's offense has plenty of new faces at the skill positions. Blake Shapen took over late in 2021 when quarterback Gerry Bohanon was injured. Shapen completed his first 17 passes of their Big 12 title game win and proceeded to beat Bohanon in spring ball. Additionally, the top three receivers and top two running backs are all gone from the 2021 offense.
Sixth-year receiver Gavin Holmes is back after missing 2021 and returned a punt 72 yards for a touchdown to break open the game in the first quarter. Like BYU, Baylor spread the ball around to plenty of new backs and receivers last week.
Along with Shapen, the strength of this unit is the big offensive line. Last year, this group earned a Joe Moore Award nomination and placed in the national Top 25 in both my Run Push and Sack Rate line metrics. Four of those five starters return for 2022, with Connor Galvin and Jacob Gall earning All-Big 12 honors.
Former BYU offensive coaches Jeff Grimes (offensive coordinator) and Eric Mateos (offensive line) make their return to Provo after re-vamping the Baylor offense last year. Grimes' so-called "Reliably-Violent Offense" led one of the nation's biggest one-year offensive turnarounds.
This will be a significant test for BYU's defensive line.
Against USF, BYU was able to generate pressure from their base pass rush, which is an encouraging development; but the step up in talent is notable, going from a weak USF front to one of the nation's best. An incredible 26 BYU defenders had tackles in the season opener, and this is one of the most experienced defenses in America (No. 1 most returning production heading into 2022).
BYU with the ball
Christopher Brooks had a big debut for the Cougars after transferring in from California. Brooks rushed for 135 yards and capped it off with a 52-yard score. Seven Cougars got carries as the team rolled up 313 rushing yards (8.2 yards per carry) behind one of the strongest lines in the nation.
Aside from one end zone interception, Jaren Hall picked up right where he left off last season with near-flawless play. I liked the offensive creativity in how Nacua was involved in the run game, but unfortunately his status is questionable for Saturday. He and fellow starting receiver Gunner Romney are both listed as questionable.
I interviewed Baylor head coach Dave Aranda back in 2020, and in a short phone call I could tell just how advanced he was with defensive scheme and strategy. I remember him rattling off specific blitz packages and playcalls from over a decade ago. It was a matter of time before Aranda turned Baylor into a nationally-strong defense, and it turned out he only needed two seasons.
Their secondary lost a ton of star power from 2021, and the do-it-all hybrids Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre are also gone. But the defensive line is led by anchor nose tackle Siaki Ika and All-AAC Jaxon Player from Tulsa. Despite the new faces, this remains one of the best defenses in the nation.
Game prediction
If you are a fan of football trench warfare, this game fits your style. It will be strength on strength, line vs. line — all game. Both offensive lines have the edge, and maybe Baylor's OL has a bigger edge against BYU's DL, but BYU has the overall roster experience, especially at all the skill positions.
With the homefield advantage, veteran roster, and the quarterback advantage, look for BYU to win and surge into the national Top 15.
No. 21 BYU (-3) 24 | No. 9 Baylor 20
