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Welcome to the Hotline's predictions for each Pac-12 game of the 2022 season. The 12-part series will be published in six installments, with teams grouped by travel partners. Links to prior articles at bottom …
Oregon State Beavers
Coach: Jonathan Smith (fifth season)
Offensive coordinator: Brian Lindgren (fifth season)
Defensive coordinator: Trey Bray (first season)
2021 record: 7-6/5-4
Oregon State's five-year win totals: 4-1-2-5-7 (2020 season excluded)
Last postseason appearance: 2021 LA Bowl (loss to Utah State)
Best-case 2022 scenario: 8-4
Worst-case 2022 scenario: 3-9
Projected starting quarterback: Chance Nolan
Key question: Will the Beavers, whose margin for error (with injuries and execution) is as narrow as any in the conference, produce a second consecutive winning for the first time in a decade?
Here we go …
Sept. 3: vs. Boise State
Result: win
Record: 1-0
Comment: The betting line — Oregon State is favored by three points, essentially the home-field advantage — reflects our thinking: The Hotline's supercomputer simulated the game 10,000 times, and the Beavers were victorious in 5,001.
Sept. 10: at Fresno State
Result: loss
Record: 1-1
Comment: The early weather forecast calls for hot and loud in Bulldog Stadium, where the home team has the benefit of two extra days to prepare.
Sept. 17: vs. Montana State
Result: win
Record: 2-1
Comment: Dangerous game for Oregon State, which can't afford to overlook the Bobcats and cast an eye to what comes next.
Sept. 24: vs. USC
Result: win
Record: 3-1/1-0
Comment: Just like last year for the Beavers, except for the 17-point victory margin and 322 yards rushing. Should be a tad more competitive.
Oct. 1: at Utah
Result: loss
Record: 3-2/1-1
Comment: We might have considered picking an upset except for OSU's head-to-head win last year, which makes this challenge all the more daunting.
Oct. 8: at Stanford
Result: win
Record: 4-2/2-1
Comment: Fortuitous logistics for the Beavers, what with Stanford in letdown mode between trips to Eugene and South Bend. No complaints from OSU, which grabs the win that tips the bowl math in its favor.
Oct. 15: vs. Washington State
Result: win
Record: 5-2/3-1
Comment: The last time OSU beat the Cougars, Smith was the quarterbacks coach at Boise State and Nolan was in middle school. The time has come.
Oct. 22: vs. Colorado
Result: loss
Record: 5-3/3-2
Comment: Considering the trajectories of the two teams at this point in the season, a CU victory would make little sense. And that's exactly why we expect it.
Oct. 29: idle
Comment: The bye brings no competitive advantage. Washington is idle Week Nine, as well.
Nov. 4 (Friday): at Washington
Result: loss
Record: 5-4/3-3
Comment: This has quietly turned into a compelling series, in part because of Smith: The Huskies haven't been the same since he departed (as offensive coordinator), and the Beavers have been different since he arrived.
Nov. 12: vs. Cal
Result: win
Record: 6-4/4-3
Comment: OSU benefits from the schedule once again, as the Bears are lethargic following their back-to-back-to-back against Washington, Oregon and USC.
Nov. 19: at Arizona State
Result: loss
Record: 6-5/4-4
Comment: With a bowl berth secured, the Beavers leave their urgency in Corvallis and aren't competitive in the second half.
Nov. 25 (Friday): vs. Oregon
Result: loss
Record: 6-6/4-5
Comment: If this is half as exciting as OSU's victory in 2020, it will be twice as riveting as most of the recent matchups.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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