With March Madness expected to expand to 76 teams for next season, the new math works something like this: Eight additional participants will create eight additional games that will create the need for one new host city.
There are no changes to the main bracket, which begins with the round of 64. But the First Four will be replaced by a 12-game opening round that unfolds over two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) at two locations.
One site is Dayton, Ohio, which has served as the host site for the First Four since its inception in 2011.
The other site has not been determined, but the NCAA reportedly wants to balance Dayton with a city in the western portion of the country. (The 12 winners from the opening round would advance to the main draw of 64.)
Where should the NCAA stage the western edition of the opening round?
Las Vegas is an obvious option, but what about one of the major cities on the West Coast (Los Angeles, the Bay Area, Portland or Seattle)?
The rough equivalents to Dayton in terms of market size would be Tucson, Spokane or Albuquerque.
Denver, Salt Lake City and Phoenix all have NBA arenas and airports with frequent nonstop flights from the eastern half of the country.
The issue is vastly more complex that it seems, but everything starts with this: Will the NCAA use a fixed location, like Dayton, or rotate the host city?
The NCAA could place the six opening-round games in a given year in the arena scheduled to host round-of-64 games a few days later.
Spokane and Sacramento are the western hosts next spring, followed by Salt Lake City and Seattle in March 2028. All four cities have extensive experience staging the tournament.
But for now, we'll assume a fixed location is the preference. Creating a Dayton duplicate is less work for the NCAA, after all.
Arena availability is atop the list of requirements. To that end, the NCAA would need to navigate around the needs of NBA teams if it prefers pro facilities or account for the possibility of NCAA Women's Tournament games if it favors on-campus arenas.
The host would need plenty of hotels for six teams, fans, media and NCAA officials. Also, the more walkable the city, the better the experience.
Spring training could be an obstacle for Phoenix.
Altitude might be problematic for Denver and Salt Lake City considering the ultra-quick turnaround. Teams that learn their fate on Selection Sunday would play opening-round games as early as Tuesday — that's not much time to acclimatize.
Airports could be an issue for Tucson, Albuquerque and Spokane. The NCAA needs cities that offer the best array of flight options with Tuesday and Wednesday winners playing elsewhere two days later.
One city has everything, from multiple arenas to an infinite number of hotels to an airport with flights everywhere around the clock: Las Vegas.
Sin City has staged conference tournaments for years. It's hosting the College Football Playoff championship game next season and the Final Four in 2028. Fans could attend the opening-round games, then set up camp in the sportsbooks for the first weekend.
It seems ideal, unless the NCAA deems Las Vegas to be … too far west.
That's right: Don't ignore the possibility that the NCAA will use the most liberal of definitions. That western might not mean cities in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones. That western simply could mean west of Dayton.
Nothing is more important than logistical flexibility.
The selection committee's goal is to feed the western sites for the round-of-64 with teams that play in the western wing of the opening round.
It desperately wants to avoid sending a team from Ohio or North Carolina to Las Vegas for the opening round and then back to Pittsburgh or Tampa.
But if the Dayton alternative is closer to the middle of the country, sending opening-round winners to round-of-64 sites in the Eastern or Central Time Zones would not be as problematic. A team from Texas could play in Kansas City, then Chicago. A team from Michigan could play in Kansas City and then Charlotte.
For that reason, Kansas City might be the best option.
It's a great basketball town that's walkable, well stocked with hotels and the home to the Big 12 tournaments.
It offers flights to major cities and, lacking an NBA franchise, would have no issues with arena availability. In fact, there are two facilities capable of hosting games and practices: T-Mobile Center and Hy-Vee Arena.
And most importantly, the selection committee could send eastern teams to Kansas City, then either to western sites for the round of 64 or back to eastern locations.
Yes, it's a schlep for teams from the West Coast (albeit not nearly as bad as Dayton).
But recent history suggests the majority of teams playing in the opening round — whether they are champions of one-bid leagues or at-large teams from the power conferences — will be located east of the Rockies.
If the selection committee has the option to send opening-round winners to any of the eight round-of-64 sites, it can craft a better bracket and greatly reduce the instances of arduous travel.
Expansion is expected to be formalized in May, after the plan is approved by various NCAA councils and committees. At that point, the identity of Dayton's counterpart could be made public.
Las Vegas is the favorite, but in our view, Kansas City lurks as a dark horse.
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Jon WilnerJon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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