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Week 9 was one of the most successful of the season for the Pac-12 in one important regard: Three teams that faced challenging bowl math were victorious, as underdogs, and bolstered their postseason prospects.
Cal, Washington and Washington State aren't eligible just yet, and they have varying distances to cover. But their collective success — the Huskies and Cougars won as road underdogs — greatly enhances the likelihood of the conference meeting its seven contractual obligations.
Only Arizona has been eliminated, but Colorado is one loss away.
Cal and Stanford must win three of their last four, while Washington and USC need two more.
But there's more to our bowl projections below than numbers: Current performance and upcoming schedules are integral to the calculations, as well.
Rose Bowl (vs. Big Ten)
Team: Oregon (7-1/4-1)
Home games (two): Washington State, Oregon State
Road games (two): Washington, Utah
Comment: Conference record of the five teams the Ducks have played: 8-19. Conference record of the four teams the Ducks will play: 14-7. We don't see a sweep.
Alamo Bowl (vs. Big 12)
Team: Utah (5-3/4-1)
Home games (two): Oregon, Colorado
Road games (two): Stanford, Arizona
Comment: Utah's magic record for clinching the division is 7-2, thanks to ownership of all tiebreaker combinations with Arizona State, UCLA and USC.
Las Vegas Bowl (vs. Big Ten)
Team: UCLA (5-4/3-3)
Home games (two): Colorado, Cal
Road games (one): USC
Comment: Two wins might be enough for the Bruins to reach Las Vegas given the bowl's desire for a big-name opponent to match against the Big Ten.
Holiday Bowl (vs. ACC)
Team: Washington State (5-4/4-2)
Home games (one): Arizona
Road games (two): Oregon, Washington
Comment: Why the heck not? The Cougars have taken fate's best shots but are clearly immune to distractions.
Sun Bowl (vs. ACC)
Team: Oregon State (5-3/3-2)
Home games (two): Stanford, Arizona State
Road games (two): Colorado, Oregon
Comment: Reminder: Invitations for the Alamo, Las Vegas and Holiday bowl are not bound by conference record; but starting with the Sun, selections are based on the order of finish.
LA Bowl (vs. Mountain West)
Team: Washington (4-4/3-2)
Home games (three): Oregon, ASU, Washington State
Road games (one): Colorado
Comment: The Huskies should thank their lucky cross-division stars for a schedule that includes Colorado and Arizona.
ESPN Bowl (Gasparilla, First Responders, Armed Forces)
Team: Arizona State (5-3/3-2)
Home games (two): USC, Arizona
Road games (two): Washington, Oregon State
Comment: The way things are going, losing out is more likely than winning out. (Yeah, yeah, we know. But at least Arizona is showing some heart.)
At-large Bowl
Team: Cal (3-5/2-3)
Home games (one): USC
Road games (three): Arizona, Stanford, UCLA
Comment: At this very moment, the Bears are better than every team left on their schedule … Oops: It's now the next moment, and we have no idea what to think.
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona (0-8/0-5)
Home games (two): Cal, Utah
Road games (two): Washington State, ASU
Comment: The game circled as Arizona's best chance to end the losing streak — Cal, this week — doesn't look nearly as circle-able.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado (2-6/1-4)
Home games (two): Oregon State, Washington
Road games (two): UCLA, Utah
Comment: All four remaining opponents have designs on a bowl berth or division title, or both. That gives CU ample opportunity to play the role of spoiler.
(News from the future: Colorado does not spoil.)
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford (3-5/2-4)
Home games (three): Utah, Cal, Notre Dame
Road games (one): Oregon State
Comment: The way things are going, a three-win season is more likely than a three-win November.
Non-qualifier
Team: USC (4-4/3-3)
Home games (two): UCLA, Brigham Young
Road games (two): Arizona State, Cal
Comment: The Trojans must win three of four. They would have a much better chance to qualify if all four were on the road.
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
