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SALT LAKE CITY — Since the COVID-19 pandemic reached Utah in March, there has been a litany of statistics and figures provided to show the growth of the coronavirus in the state, as well as how it’s impacting the economy.
Utah quickly launched the Utah Leads Together plans in an effort to balance public and economic health, and they've morphed over time. Now, some six months into the pandemic, there’s a new tool available to allow Utahns a better look at the main statistics state leaders are looking at when making decisions about COVID-19 and the economy.
The Unified Response Scoreboard, which launched Thursday, highlights multiple COVID-19 and economic figures, and where they are compared to goals set by state leaders. Utah Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox said the two main goals for state leaders are to keep the COVID-19 mortality rate below 1% and the unemployment rate at 4.5%.
As of Thursday, the state reported a 0.78% mortality rate and 4.5% unemployment, which was the state figure from July. The state’s COVID-19 mortality rate — the number of deaths divided by the number of infected people — is among the lowest in the nation. Its unemployment rate in July was the lowest in the nation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But there are also data subsets and secondary goals to both of these objectives. Here’s a look at what they are and how they stack up to the goals outlined by the state leaders.
COVID-19 statistics to know
The overall objective outlined by the state is to keep the case fatality rate below 1%. According to Utah’s data, it’s remained below 1% since June — even after the massive uptick in cases that happened in the weeks following Memorial Day. The nationwide mortality rate is currently about 3%, per Johns Hopkins University data.
Within that objective are few other statistics, which are seven-day average COVID-19 case counts, intensive care unit utilization, long-term care facility outbreak containment, and non-long term care facility outbreak (such as businesses) containment.
These statistics were pinpointed after meetings with epidemiologists, physicians and government leaders who met to figure out the best statistics to track regarding the coronavirus, said Rich Saunders, interim executive director of the Utah Department of Health.
"These are the result of those discussions — and they’ve been evolving over many weeks and months," Saunders said. "We’ve also taken into consideration what we’ve learned so far. And if we had to focus on a few things, what would those things be?"
Some of the state targets, such as seven-day rolling average and ICU beds, were made public already. Utah leaders' current goal is to keep the rolling average under 400 new cases per day, have lower than 85% ICU capacity, and keep containment of outbreaks at health care facilities and businesses over 90%.
Where does the state stand with those goals now? After a recent rise in cases, Utah is back nearing a 400 cases-per-day average. The website marked it at 400, which is over the listed goal, while Utah Department of Health statistics released on Thursday listed the average at 381 new cases per day.
ICU capacity was listed at 63.5% (8.3% for COVID-19 reasons) and outbreak containment was 94.4% at long-term care facilities and 93.6% at non-long-term care facilities — all within the outlined targets.
Other statistics on the site include a weekly update on mask-wearing percentages. For example, the number of Utahns who reported they always wore a mask jumped from 56% on July 19 to 67% on Aug. 30. The state’s goal is at least 80% of Utahns reporting that they always or usually wear face coverings; it was about 88% on Aug. 30.
Saunders said the goals will likely fluctuate over time based on new data. For example, he said state leaders considered moving the target goal for rolling average down to either 300 or 350 but decided to keep it at 400 to take into account schools and higher education systems reopening, which started in mid-August.
"What we’re trying to do is instill within people their own responsibility to make wise choices and conduct their behavior in ways that are consistent with success in dealing with this virus that’s not going away anytime soon," he said. "But we have to move forward in our lives in a very wise and intelligent way, and that’s what these are helping us indicate."
Looking at economic recovery
While the state’s unemployment was the lowest in the nation in July, there are other key figures that experts say indicate that Utah’s economy still hasn’t fully recovered from the financial strains of the pandemic. Leaders say they are cautious based on what they see from the economy.
In addition, economic experts say fixing economic issues is intertwined with reducing COVID-19 spread. That’s why both the state’s top economic and public health minds meet together often to discuss plans, said Taylor Randall, dean of University of Utah’s Eccles School of Business and economic lead for Utah’s Unified Command.
"This is an economic crisis unlike any other, in that it’s also a health crisis," Randall said. "To solve the economic crisis, we have to be very observant and we also have to solve the health crisis."
He added that Utahns should look at the situation as a "longer-term issue" that could possibly last another 6 to 12 months.
He pointed out that many federal stimulus programs are set to expire by the end of the year, which is why keeping tabs on the economy — especially jobless claims — is important. Congressional leaders have discussed a second COVID-19 response package to add to the massive CARES Act but have not yet agreed on a new deal.
The three large statistics the scoreboard shows are consumer confidence, continued unemployment claims, and job training enrollment for jobs that were displaced.
"(There’s) a lot of economic theory, a lot of observing of economic systems and the way they work," Randall said, explaining why those statistics were pinpointed for the scoreboard.
"Fundamentally, our No. 1 measure is caring about the well-being of individuals, and employment in an economic sense is the single best measure," he added. "From there, you just logically use the basic principles of supply and demand. You have to have a demand for products — that’s consumer confidence. You’ve got to have a supply of jobs — that’s making sure the job markets are clearing well."
The main goal of unemployment is a lagging factor, in that unemployment rates are released more than a week after one month ends. Thus, August unemployment rates have yet to be released.
The state is behind its goal for consumer confidence and unemployment claims — although, current consumer confidence is tracked by national data.
As of Thursday, consumer confidence nationwide remained well below the state’s index goal. It was rated at 72.8 on the scale — sizably below the goal of 101. The number of 101 on the index scale is where the nation was in February. Consumer confidence has remained between 71 and 78 on the scale since.
The University of Utah's Kem C. Garnder Policy Institute is set to begin releasing Utah consumer confidence data this month. Randall explained the number isn’t a percentage but more of an agnostic unit based on economic factors, like spending, that are calculated from surveys. If people aren’t spending, it’s likely because they are saving or lost their job. The goal of 101 means that overall consumers' confidence in the economy is "reasonably high," he said.
Another reason for confidence dropping is COVID-19. On Thursday, Utah officials expanded the "Stay Safe to Stay Open" initiative that was launched earlier this year. The program was created for businesses to show customers — especially those who might otherwise be skeptical of shopping in person — the safety measures they have in place to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.
"It’s one thing for a business to behave safely in order to open its doors and keep its doors open, but it’s something else for customers to feel confident, to feel safe to walk through those doors," said Derek Miller, president and CEO of the Salt Lake Chamber and Downtown Alliance and Utah Economic Task Force chair.
As for other factors, unemployment claims fell 11.7% from the previous week but remained over the target of fewer than 50,000 claims. The state reported 54,661 jobless claims from the most recent week.
The state also has a target of 563 people enrolled in job training. It reports numbers well above the goal, at 932 enrollments — meaning many are working on getting new training for jobs they lost so they can re-enter the workforce.
