4 things you should know heading into Super Tuesday

4 things you should know heading into Super Tuesday

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SALT LAKE CITY — We’re close to Super Tuesday, which is expected to play a pivotal role in deciding the Democratic challenger to President Donald Trump.

Yes, the Republican Party is holding primary events, too, but Trump is all but certain to be re-nominated, which means a lot less is at stake during the presidential primary process.

With Utah’s primary nearing, here are four things to know heading into Super Tuesday.

How Utah’s delegates at stake get awarded

These primary elections help the two largest political parties determine who they will choose to represent their respective parties in November. Each state, territory and group of Americans abroad have primary elections or caucuses that will award delegates, and those help determine the candidate selected.

Both Republicans and Democrats will have primaries in Utah, but they have slightly different systems to reach a presidential nominee. They both involve delegates, which are a representation of the party members.

Let’s start with the Democrats' process. In all, Utah carries 29 pledged delegates and six superdelegates this year. Jeff Marchant, Utah’s Democratic Party Chair, explained that each congressional district carries a certain number of delegates along with three statewide delegates. In 2016, Utah had 33 pledged delegates; this year it’s 29. Those 29 delegates will be split up based on the number of Democrats in Utah’s four congressional districts, he said.

The results of the primary will dictate how those pledged delegates are divided. During the vote, 15% is a big number to watch for. A candidate must receive at least 15% from the primary to collect a delegate from Utah, which is referred to as a “viable candidate.” All candidates who make that threshold will be apportioned delegates.

“For example, if you have six delegates and you have three candidates who each have 15%. Then, each of those candidates is going to get an equal number of delegates,” he said. “You’re only counting the number of voters that voted for a viable candidate. So in this example, you’re only counting that 45% of voters. You’re not counting the rest because all of those voters voted for a candidate who was not considered a viable candidate.”

This breakdown is conducted on a congressional district and a statewide level. If one candidate received 100% of the vote in the 1st Congressional District, then all of the delegates in that district would go to that candidate. The same goes if a different candidate accomplished the same in another district. That means it’s possible for one candidate to receive all 29 delegates, but it’s more likely that they will be split up — that's especially true if there isn’t a consensus candidate.

Then there are superdelegates, who come into play during the national convention in July. For this election, Utah’s superdelegates will be Merchant, Utah Democratic Party Vice Chair Nadia Mahallati, Rep. Ben McAdams, National Committeeman Charles Stormont, National Committeewoman/Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson and one more to be decided by the national party as early as Friday.

Superdelegates can choose any candidate they like and it counts the same as any of the divided up pledged delegates; however, they can’t vote during the first round of the convention. A candidate needs 1,991 pledged delegates or 2,376 total delegates to win the nomination. That means if a candidate has received 1,991 pledged delegates in the first round, they would receive the nomination without the superdelegates coming into play.

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The Republican primary is somewhat similar. According to The Green Papers, Utah holds 40 Republican delegates. If Trump receives more than 50% of the vote, then he will receive all 40 delegates. The delegates are only split up if three or more candidates receive 15% of the vote. The candidate with a simple majority wins the nomination during the Republican convention in August.

Super Tuesday is important

When we talk about the importance, it's because of the delegates. Super Tuesday isn’t the first or the last primary or caucus to be held, but it’s the largest and most diverse day of events — hence the name. For example, the Democratic Party will have events involving 14 states scattered in all regions of the United States, one territory and a group of party members abroad.

That includes California and Texas, which hold the most and third-most Democratic pledged delegates of any state. It should give the nation a better look at voter preferences in completely different areas of the country.

Be prepared to wait

Both of Utah's presidential primaries are being held mostly by mail, as has been the case for most of the state’s elections over the past few years. So Utahns are starting to understand that we may not know who won Utah’s presidential primary until days after the election.

In fact, the Utah Democratic Party issued a statement Thursday that noted the party won’t release delegate allocation until all its ballots have been counted. Taking into account people submitting their mail-in ballots at the last minute, the party said that final allocation numbers likely shouldn’t be expected until at least two days after the election.

“I am positive there are some news outlets, certainly campaigns who are going to be very concerned about getting those numbers quickly, but I am and always have been a person who would rather get it right than get it fast, so we’re going to try our very best to get it right,” Merchant said.

Of course, an election isn’t 100% final until all 29 counties have canvassed the votes. That won’t happen until March 17.

The field could soon narrow

There have already been primaries and caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina; however, jumping from four states over the span of a few weeks to 14 in one day will give a better understanding of candidate preferences across the country.

We're already starting to see this heading into Super Tuesday, as billionaire Tom Steyer and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race over the weekend. More candidates may drop out with a poor showing during Super Tuesday. It’s possible a consensus candidate could emerge, too.

That said, there are still plenty of more primaries to go after Tuesday. Six states have primaries on March 10. Key states like Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio have theirs on March 17. The crowded field should thin over the next few weeks and that begins with Super Tuesday.

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Carter Williams

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