Rudy Gobert's defensive impact felt inside and out

SALT LAKE CITY — At this point, it's a two-man race for the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green or Rudy Gobert.

The two-time defending champion, Kawhi Leonard, has removed himself from the picture thanks to his own offensive surge (and associated small downtick in defensive effort) and the strange-but-true stat that the Spurs have been better defensively with Leonard off the floor than on it.

So that leaves it to Gobert and Green to make their cases.

Green is probably the favorite: he plies his trade for the very best defense in the league; and thanks to his Finals appearances, he is certainly a bigger name than Gobert. He's also one of the most outspoken players in the league, and he made his case for the award with USA Today's Sam Amick:

“No disrespect, but I think when you look at today's game, the object is to actually stop the three, as opposed to not giving up a two,” Green said. “So you have to be able to do multiple things. “That's kind of the way I look at it. Like I said, Rudy (Gobert) is great at what he does, and I think he has changed games. But I think this is, like you said, a guard-heavy league and being able to switch onto guards and being able to defend one through five, just being able to play no matter who's out there on the floor, and you're not at a disadvantage, I think it helps.”

Green has a point! With the league going smaller than ever, being able to keep up with guards is more important than it has been in the past. But it's certainly important to stop both 2- and 3-point shots.

But here's the truth: by protecting the rim, Gobert actually prevents good 2-point looks and the 3-point looks that come from penetration. Take a look at this play, for example:

Rudy Gobert able to shade toward Capela, preventing the lob, and still get back to block James Harden's shot: pic.twitter.com/YU8gXCYpOp — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 30, 2016

Think about all of the threats here: Harden is an exceptional scorer who's able to finish at the rim, at the 3-point line or anywhere in between. The Jazz have to be primarily worried about that threat.

But Harden is also the NBA's leader in assists this season, with 11.2 per game. 2.2 per game of those are to Clint Capela, the roll man here. When Harden passes it to Capela, and he gets a shot, he makes it 75 percent of the time. After all, it's usually an easy lay-up or dunk. And all outside of the arc are Ryan Anderson (a 40-percent 3-point shooter), Trevor Ariza (a 35-percent 3-point shooter) and Patrick Beverley (a 38-percent 3-point shooter).

In other words, with Harden's defender screened out of the play, opposing teams have a choice:

• Leaving Harden open for a layup (approximate efficiency: 1.32 points per possession)
• Leaving Capela open for a layup or dunk (approximate efficiency: 1.5 points per possession)
• Leaving Anderson open for a 3 (approximate efficiency: 1.2 points per possession)
• Leaving Ariza open for a corner 3 (approximate efficiency: 1.05 points per possession)
• You can't really leave Beverley here because he's at the top of the arc and therefore his man is behind the play. I guess you could rotate to leave Beverley open, but even if you do that he's making 38 percent this year (approximate efficiency: 1.15 points per play)

But Gobert breaks the game by guarding two players at once. Watch that video above again: see how Gobert keeps his ridiculously long arms high, takes two steps towards Capela to prevent the lob, then takes a step towards Harden to block his shot? It's not just Gobert's length that allows him to do this, it's his movement.

That also allows all three Utah perimeter players to stay outside. With all three players facing Harden and relatively close to the arc, any pass outside is going to be either intercepted or lobbed high enough that the defender will be able to get to the shooter by the time he catches it.

"Guys stay home on their man," All-Star Gordon Hayward explained when I asked about Gobert's impact on the floor. "We let Rudy and whoever is guarding the ball-handler try to play two-on-two. So you're not giving teams wide-open looks from three. Being able to protect the rim the way he does allows us to do that."

The stats back this up: this puts a serious kink in the Houston offense. The Rockets average 40 3-point shots per game against the rest of the NBA. Against the Jazz, in three meetings this season, the Rockets have taken 31.3 shots, making them at only a 32 percent clip. Harden has averaged fewer assists per game (about seven) than he has against any other NBA team this year.

Of course, nowhere in the league's bylaws does it say that success against the Houston franchise determines the winner of Defensive Player of the Year. But, luckily, the stats for the rest of Gobert's matchups are just as special. When Gobert is on the floor, the Jazz allow opponents to shoot threes on only 27.8 percent of possessions, well below the league average of 31.5 percent and Green's on-court 31.8-percent figure. That's especially impactful given that research shows that the best way to defend the 3-point shot is to prevent it from being taken at all.

Does Green defend far more 3-point shots himself than Gobert does? Of course, by about three attempts per game. But Gobert's defense allows the Jazz to stay solid on the perimeter, and that probably belongs in Gobert's DPOY resume.

And inside the arc, Gobert's the league's best defender himself: he guards the most shots per game (13.8 per game, compared to Green's 11.2 per game), and of course, he leads the league in blocks with 2.7 per game.

That's why Gobert has a tiny advantage in ESPN's defensive RPM: he helps his team's defense by about 5.90 points per 100 possessions, compared to Green's 5.32. These are tiny differences, and both players are certainly deserving of the award. But thanks to the way his defense helps the Jazz inside and out, it's Rudy Gobert who has been the league's best defender this season.

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